The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 15
Carlton v Collingwood and Geelong v Hawthorn headline the Round 15 AFL action. Who will stand up and be counted on Friday night, and will the famous “Kennett Curse” finally be lifted by the Hawks? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham muse on these and other topics.
CB
With rain forecast for most of the next week in Melbourne, I’m going to reserve judgement on any total points plays at the MCG for now. Suffice to say, the early totals put up by Bet365 appear to have made some level of allowance for poor weather rolling in.
GO
The Dons on the back of their beleaguered skipper had an emotional win and an even more emotional cover. I’d given that one up for dead. The Suns died in the arse after an encouraging start but boy oh boy, are they going to be tough to beat over the next few years. Fremantle was beaten at its own game and the Tigers machine continues to roll on. Oh, and Port beat another ‘Top 4’ side. If the Power play finals this year Ken Hinkley should be made president of the galaxy.
Results for Round 14 selections
GO – 4 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.73 units
CB – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 3.82 units
Total – 10 selections, 11 units bet, return of 9.55 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 51 selections, 59 units bet, return of 51.48 units, -13% PoT
CB – 60 selections, 60 units bet, return of 61.46 units, 2% PoT
Total – 111 selections, 119 units bet, return of 112.94 units, -5% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Carlton (ML to -1.5) v Collingwood, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
Always good tussles in front of big crowds. Both teams come in lacking some form and carrying some big name players. The result is going to depend on which Collingwood side shows up. If they come out and compete like they did against Geelong then they’ll win by the length of the Flemington straight. If they come out and expect it to happen as they did last week then the Blues will win by plenty. Carlton are the more consistent but for me this is a true flip of the coin.
CB
I get the feeling that Collingwood can bounce back this week. This year they’re 4-3 ATS at the MCG and 3-1 at night, compared to Carlton who is 1-4 ATS at the MCG and 1-6 at night. The Magpies have won 6 of the last 8 matches between the teams, including a 17-point victory in Round Two of this season. They beat the Richmond and Carlton did not. I think they are the superior team, albeit by a small margin. Nonetheless, as slight underdogs they can be backed.
Saturday
GWS (+28.5 to +29.5) v Western Bulldogs, Manuka Oval, 1.45pm
North Melbourne (+13.5 to +16.5) v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Brisbane (-11.5 to -13.5) v Gold Coast, Gabba, 4.40pm
Adelaide (-4.5 to -5.5) v West Coast, AAMI Stadium, 7.40pm
Geelong (+5.5 to +6.5) v Hawthorn, MCG, 7.40pm
CB
Some very interesting matches within this suite of five. Can you find us a bet or two?
GO
If the weather is kind I might venture out to Manuka on Saturday to check out the Giants. It’ll be interesting to see how they’ve progressed in the last 12 months. Cameron kicked a bag here last time too so with any luck we’ll get a repeat dose. The Dogs will be seething after getting rolled last week and if they drop this one expect pressure to mount on the coach. Griffen holds the key but needs more support from Boyd and Cooney.
The Tigers have won their last 4 by an average of 51 points and look like the real deal. Their mids run deep and they have pace, starch and skill off half back. Edwards and Vickery have given Reiwoldt a good chop out as well and the unpredictability of their forward structure has been key. North Melbourne has been the most disappointing side this season. Whilst we expected a slide from them and didn’t have them in the eight, I didn’t expect them to lie down as often as they have. I feel sorry for their 47 supporters who would have collectively expected much more. Richmond should win this one by 5 goals.
I don’t mind the Q clash for a bit of a flutter as well. The Lions are enigmatic at best and the Suns have shown they are at least the equal of their big brother. If Nicholls can compete with Leuenberger and minimise the Lions ability to get first use, then I think the likes of Ablett and O’Merea will have a field day. Merrett is unlikely to return and McGuire is well short of a run. This game should be a coin flip as well so I’m happy to take the points.
CB
Surely more than 30.5 people will front up to Manuka this weekend? Oh…. that’s the handicap line for the match. My mistake. No bet.
I have a lean to the Tigers at the minus, but North Melbourne traditionally play Etihad pretty well and did run some very good sides (including Geelong and Hawthorn) close earlier in the season. Meanwhile, did you know that the Kangaroos and Tigers are a combined 19-7 under this season? Or that both teams are coming off a 6-day break, a scenario where all teams are a combined 41-20 under this season (including a 6-1 under record for these two teams), and 109-68 under since the start of last year? Sign me up.
3 of the 5 matches between the Lions and Suns to date have been decided by 11 points or less, including a 2-point victory for the Lions earlier this year. The Lions are 2-5 ATS in Queensland this season, 1-2 in twilight, 0-3 as favourites and 0-2 off a break of 6 days or less. By contrast, the Suns are 4-3 in Qld, 2-0 in twilight and 7-4 off a break of 7 days or more. This line is too big to my eye – Suns at the plus for mine.
GO
West Coast has cost me enough money this year so I won’t be getting involved in this game – Adelaide to win it though and really twist the screws on the Eagles.
The Hawks haven’t lost since the last meeting of these two sides and with Rioli likely to return their already potent forward line becomes even more dangerous. Lake is in great form and he is the key for mine. Geelong’s ability to round up the Hawks in recent times has been strongly driven by Hawthorns inability to match it with their tall forwards. Lake can change that this time around. The Cats have struggled in patches while still winning which is the sign of a talented unit. Their demolition job on Fremantle was a sight to behold but they will struggle to maintain that kind of pressure against Hawthorns spread. The curse to be lifted with the Hawks to win by 20.
CB
I cannot get any sort of gauge on the relative merits of the Crows and Eagles and therefore will be sitting this one out.
It’s well documented that the Cats have won 10 straight over the Hawks (the last 3 matches as underdog), dating back to their 2008 GF loss. 7 of those matches were decided by less than 10 points, while 5 decided by less than a kick. Hold that thought for a moment. Geelong are 2-0 as underdogs this season and 5-3 at night, while Hawthorn are 3-5 as favourites in Victoria and 1-2 at night. The Hawks return home from Tasmania on a 6-day break while the Cats have stayed home and had 7 days of rest. And the line for this game is more than a kick, despite the recent history of smaller winning margins than that. I’ll be grabbing the Cats at the plus.
Sunday
Melbourne (+59.5 to +61.5) v Sydney, MCG, 1.10pm
Fremantle (-46.5 to -48.5) v St Kilda, Patersons Stadium, 3.15pm
Essendon (-23.5 to -25.5) v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
If the rains don’t come, the 168.5 total point line in the Demons-Swans game is too low. However, it is Melbourne in winter and the forecast is ominous…
All the trends point to the under at Patersons: Freo are 11-2 under overall and 5-1 under as home favourites, while St Kilda are 10-3 under overall and 7-2 under off a break of 7 days or more. However, a 156.5 total point line? Come on bookies, stop blocking my Ross Lyon cash cow! Only 7 Dockers games and 3 Saints games have totalled less than 160 all season – it’s enough for me to sit this one out.
Both the Bombers and Power are 9-4 ATS this season overall. The Bombers are 6-2 as favourites; the Power 6-3 as underdogs. The 4-goal line does not enthuse either way. The bet I do like is the over 181.5 total points. While both teams have an overall trend to the under in 2013, the Bombers have totalled 182 or more in all 5 starts at Etihad this year, Port totalled 200 in their only trip to date, and the last 5 matches head-to-head at the ground have totalled 197 or more.
GO
The only line that sparks any interest for me is Port at the plus. Sydney should win by 20 goals but who’s to say what side they’ll send to Melbourne.
Fremantle should win by 12 goals as well but they have a tendency to lock it down once the game is dusted.
As we all know Port have knocked off the Swans and Pies in the last two weeks but both wins came at AAMI where the crowd has played a massive role. On results alone you’d have to give them a chance against the Bombers but on the flat Etihad track I’m expecting the Dons to give them a reality check. I’ll happily be proved wrong though. There is a bet available though. The match line of 182.5 represents a good over play. 2 attacking teams under the roof, it’ll be raining goals.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Richmond -13.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Gold Coast +13.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Hawthorn -5.5 at $1.91 (Sportingbet)
1 unit on Essendon v Port Adelaide over 182.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
CB
1 unit on Collingwood ML at $1.98 (Luxbet)
1 unit on North Melbourne v Richmond under 192.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Gold Coast +13.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Geelong +6.5 at $1.91 (Betezy)
1 unit on Essendon v Port Adelaide over 182.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
