The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 5

Round 5 of the AFL is headlined by a pair of ANZAC Day clashes – the traditional duel between Essendon and Collingwood, and the first ever match played for premiership points outside of Australia when St Kilda ‘host’ Sydney in Wellington. After a disastrous result last week, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham are back to right the ship, as it were.

CB

10 units bet between us for one measly winner. I don’t want to talk about any further – let’s move on to the upcoming round of matches as swiftly as possible.

GO

Agreed mate. We’ll scrub that one and be on about our business. This looks to be a great week of footy with some big questions being asked. Strap in.

Results for Round 3 selections

GO – 3 selections, 4 units bet, return of 0.00 units

CB – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 1.87 units

Total – 9 selections, 10 units bet, return of 1.87 units

Results for 2013 selections

GO – 13 selections, 15 units bet, return of 11.42 units, -24% PoT

CB – 20 selections, 20 units bet, return of 15.23 units, -24% PoT

Total – 33 selections, 35 units bet, return of 26.65 units, -24% PoT

 

(Please note – all times are EST)

Thursday

Essendon (+7.5 to +8.5) v Collingwood, MCG, 2.40pm

St Kilda (+27.5 to +28.5) v Sydney, Westpac Stadium (Wellington), 5.40pm

GO

The Bombers have plenty of momentum early in the season. Much as they have the last two years. Watson has led from the front but it has been the progression of Carlisle, Heppell and Howlett that has really sparked them. Gumbleton’s return is a massive boost especially given the Pies are down a couple of key defenders. If the Bombers can break even through the middle and minimise the influence of Cloke they have a massive chance but those are very big ifs. The Pies should prove too strong here.

CB

My heart is a little too involved in the Bombers-Magpies clash to suggest a bet there. As for the Saints-Swans game, I think I saw Jesse Ryder smash a few sixes at Westpac Stadium once. Not sure how that will translate into AFL terms though. Suffice to say, the decision not to bet on that game is an easy one.

GO

I’m with you there, we might have to wait and see how the surface plays before opening the wallet for international matches. It’s a good concept though. I’ll stick to the two up instead. TAIL EM UP!!!

Friday

Fremantle (-12.5 to -13.5) v Richmond, Patersons Stadium, 8.40pm

GO

This is a must win for Fremantle. If they drop another home game this early in the season then the top four dreams could start to fade. They’ll welcome back McPharlin which should sure up their defensive structure and minimise Reiwoldt’s influence. Cotchin plays a lot like Ablett and Ryan Crowley has done better than anyone in negating ‘Jesus’ so the Tiger’s young skipper could be in for a hard slog. Richmond have impressed so far but with so much on the line the Dockers must get the job done and Rossy will have them up and about.

CB

I like this game from a total points perspective. Last year the Dockers were a very strong under team at home and/ or as favourite, while the Tigers had a slight lean to the under on the road. I’m going to go with a unit on the under here.

 

Saturday

GWS (+10.5 to +14.5) v Gold Coast, Manuka Oval, 1.40pm

Carlton (-11.5 to -12.5) v Adelaide, MCG, 4.40pm

Western Bulldogs (+56.5 to +57.5) v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm

Port Adelaide (ML to +1.5) v West Coast, AAMI Stadium, 7.40pm

CB

We start with a couple of teams fighting for credibility and then traverse a few teams with their finals (and more to the point, top four) aspirations in some serious jeopardy. Who do you like?

GO

Manuka has proven to be a cash graveyard in recent times. I like the Giants in this one but there’s far too many variables. Carlton’s pace exposed the Eagles last start but don’t expect Sanderson to let that happen to his boys. Jacobs could be the real determining factor here. If he can give the Crows midfield first use then that will hold them in good stead. Jamison has been in solid form and his battle with Tex will be pivotal. Blues at home but it will be tight.

CB

Leave me out of any game involving teams who have won a combined six of their last 52. Carlton have a great record at the MCG but with Kreuzer still gone and the Crows unlikely to finish with a score of 7.23, I’m letting that match slide as well.

GO

The Dogs are in deep shit at the minute with the loss of Griffin compounding their woes. Geelong are irresistible and have pace to burn which will really hurt their opponents. This could blow out to three figures.

Port have been outstanding so far but in truth, haven’t beaten much. West Coast’s season is on the line which is big noise for a round five game but if they don’t win this one then top-4 is gone, as are their chances of winning the flag. Some big names were down for the Eagles last week and they have to bounce back en masse to avoid lynching. Waters will return to add some starch and take the heat off Hurn whose been tagged hard. Too much at stake for the Eagles and they are too good to let this one slip.

CB

Finally, we get to a couple of bets that I like! Three of Geelong’s four matches in 2013 have broken 220 total points, while the head to head history between these teams features seven scores of 200+ in the last 11 matches overall, and five scores of 200+ in the last six at Etihad. Give me the over for a unit. As for the Power-Eagles match, I’m riding this ‘bet either side by less than 15.5 when the line is less than a goal’ bandwagon until it careens into a ravine…. or possibly into Peter Dean.

Sunday

Brisbane (-36.5 to -37.5) v Melbourne, Gabba, 3.15pm

Hawthorn (-28.5 to -30.5) v North Melbourne, MCG, 4.40pm

CB

The Lions have been appalling so far in 2013 and are laying more than six goals. I don’t care that their record as favourites last year was excellent – you’re not talking me into a bet there.

The dominant attacking force of Hawthorn is another matter though. Since their opening round loss to Geelong, they’ve beaten three straight 2012 finalists by an average margin of over eight goals, posting an average score of 137 points per game in the process. When you consider that North conceded 115 points per game in the opening three rounds (to 2012 finalists), I can see the Hawks racking up a big number here – one unit on the minus.

GO

You are spot on mate. Brisbane have been diabolical so far this year. The fact they are six goal favourites shows how deep the Dees are sitting. It’s not worth a bet but could be worth a look. They’ll both be out to prove.

The Hawks here for mine. They’ve put the hurt on three teams I rate higher than the Kangas in three consecutive weeks so that’s good enough to take the minus.

Recommended bet summary

GO

1 unit on Collingwood -7.5 at $1.91 (Bet 365)

1 unit on Fremantle -12.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Geelong -56.5 at (Centrebet)

1 unit on West Coast H2H at $1.92 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Hawks -28.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)

CB

1 unit on Fremantle v Richmond under 186.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet 365)

1 unit on Western Bulldogs v Geelong over 194.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet 365)

1 unit on either side (Port Adelaide v West Coast) by less than 15.5 points at $2.75 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Hawthorn -28.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)

 

Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo