The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 7

Filed in AFL, AFL Lines by on May 8, 2013

Round 7 of the 2013 AFL season is headlined by the battle of the unbeaten teams on Friday night (with the Cats hosting the Bombers at Etihad Stadium) and the Grand Final replay between the Hawks and Swans on Saturday night at the MCG. After an improved showing on the punt last weekend, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham are out to continue the rebuilding phase in this round of fixtures.


A combined 5-1 last week – that’s a hell of a lot better. With a number of small lines in play this week, it may simply be a case of tipping the right sides to win in order to come out with a profit.


Still a long way to go but at least we had something to cheer about. Some cracking games this week and some real, must win affairs. Will the mid-range sides take their opportunities to bolster their percentages this week or will they be content to consolidate their positions with the four points…

Results for Round 6 selections

GO – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.83 units

CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 5.74 units

Total – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 9.57 units

Results for 2013 selections

GO – 21 selections, 23 units bet, return of 15.25 units, -34% PoT

CB – 27 selections, 27 units bet, return of 25.63 units, -5% PoT

Total – 48 selections, 50 units bet, return of 40.88 units, -18% PoT


(Please note – all times are EST)


Geelong (-9.5) v Essendon, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm


The two remaining undefeated sides doing battle, this should be a cracking game. The common assessment is that the Dons are tracking a bit better at the minute but the Cats have more upside. Taylor Hunt has been the form tagger this year and if he will get a job on Zaharakis. Watson is too hard to shut down but with Stanton injured closing down Zaka’s outside run will be the key. Geelong will win this one but it may be close so I’ll stay out of it.


The head says Geelong, the heart says Essendon, the head responds by leaving the wallet in the back pocket for this match. Go Dons!



Port Adelaide (-8.5) v Richmond, AAMI Stadium, 1.45pm

Brisbane (+29.5 to +31.5) v West Coast, Gabba, 2.10pm  

Western Bulldogs (+36.5 to +37.5) v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm

Fremantle (+4.5 to +6.5) v Collingwood, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm

Hawthorn (-8.5 to -10.5) v Sydney, MCG, 7.40pm


We have an intriguing match to start the day’s proceedings and a couple of cracking matchups in the evening – who do you like?


Port coming off their first defeat and the Tigers desperate after dropping three on the trot. Tigers’ supporters should be worried though given that Port’s midfield has gelled remarkably well and the balance of inside grunt and outside run is hard to halt. The Tigers midfield has been down on form and they’ll need a massive impact from Cotchin and Delidio if they are to get up here. I’m tipping a close one here with both sides a big chance to get the points.

The Lions have been really struggling. They tried to take some solace from the fact that they held the Swans after quarter time but the reality is that Sydney put the cue in the rack at quarter time and coasted home. West Coast looked buoyed at the return of Nic Nat and with Cox now able to spend more time forward their scoring power has soared. The Eagles can’t afford any slips ups after a treacherous start and will romp home at the Gabba.

North will beat the Dogs but 6 goals is a fair mountain to climb for a team that has consistently failed to finish their quarters. I’ll leave this one alone.


The bet I like in the Power-Tigers match is the under – in 2012 and 2013 to date, Port are 9-6 under at home and Richmond are 5-2 under interstate. Over the same period, Port are 10-7 under in the day and Richmond are 9-7 under, defying the broader AFL trend of day matches going over.

The daytime/ over combination gets its call-up in the Lions-Eagles match. The Lions are 9-6 over in the day in 2012/2013, while the Eagles are an amazing 15-4 over. I’m happy to follow such a strong trend with my cash in that game. I can’t find an appealing in the Dogs-North game though.


Pattersons hasn’t been the fortress of recent years so far and with the Dockers still without Pavlich, Sandilands and Fyfe their attack looks shaky. They’ll try and bottle this one up and suck the life out of it. McPharlin won’t be bullied by Cloke and Crowley will negate Pendlebury’s influence. 10 goals could win this one so again, either side under 15.5 is an outstanding play.

I originally thought the Hawks were a bit of a false favourite here but given the Hawks have hard a vastly more difficult run it’s hard to deny that their form is better than the Swans. The only issue is that whether the last 6 weeks of taxing football will have Clarko’s boys fitter and stronger or whether Sydney’s ability to coast through will leave them with more in the tank. I won’t be betting this game but I’ll be praying for vengeance.


There are a couple of good bets going in the Freo-Pies game. Firstly, I’m sticking with the ‘either side by less than 15.5 points when the line is less than a goal’ theory and having a crack at that option. Secondly, there is an excellent case for betting the under. Across 2012/ 2013, the Dockers are 11-4 under at home and 6-3 under at night, while the Magpies are 5-1 under interstate and 14-3 under at night. Last year’s match at the MCG totalled 185, but the eight games prior to that between Collingwood and Ross Lyon’s St Kilda sides all failed to reach 170. At a line of 180.5, you want the under.

I’m severely tempted to take the Swans at the plus, given that across 2012/ 2013, Hawthorn have a 1-5 H2H record against Geelong (0-3)and Sydney (1-2) … and a 23-2 record against everyone else. However, that temptation is tempered by the fact that when you remove last year’s Grand Final, Sydney’s recent record at the MCG is terrible – just the one win and one draw from the 15 matches prior to last year’s finale. I’ll sit this one out.


Great call on the under for the Dockers-Pies…I’ll get around that too!



GWS (+44.5 to +45.5) v Adelaide, Skoda Stadium, 1.10pm

Melbourne (-2.5) v Gold Coast, MCG, 4.40pm


In contrast to the suite of Saturday matches, what a pair of stink bombs we have on Sunday. I feel no remorse about bypassing both games to watch the Canberra Raiders match live, nor about disregarding the small line/ either team under 15.5 points combination here. While I’m on the topic of Sunday, a Happy Mother’s Day to Mrs Bingham and Mrs Oberscheidt.


I’ll be at a family BBQ on Sunday. That is all.



St Kilda (+22.5 to +24.5) v Carlton, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm


I like the Saints at the plus here. Putting a line through the respective matches these two teams played against Richmond and Collingwood, the Saints lost by 17 and 26 points respectively to those two teams; the Blues lost by five and 17 points. That implies a gap of around two goals between these teams. Add the fact that St Kilda is 9-5 ATS at Etihad over 2012/2013 compared to Carlton’s 3-7 ATS record and we have a bet.


I was trying to think of a compelling reason to bet this game and unfortunately I haven’t found a drum. Betfair is currently offering $7 that Jarrad Waite will punch a cop and break his hand (resulting in a 6 week lay-off) whilst suspended…I’m on that instead.


Recommended bet summary


1 unit on either side (Port Adelaide v Richmond) by less than 15.5 points at $2.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on West Coast -29.5 at $1.91 (Bet365)

2 units on either side (Fremantle v Collingwood) by less than 15.5 points at $2.60 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Fremantle v Colllingwood under 180.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)


1 unit on Port Adelaide v Richmond under 190.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)

1 unit on Brisbane v West Coast over 189.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)

1 unit on either side (Fremantle v Collingwood) by less than 15.5 points at $2.60 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Fremantle v Colllingwood under 180.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)

1 unit on St Kilda +24.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)


Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo


Comments are closed.