The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 8
The Cats remain undefeated, but the battle for ladder positions behind them will be influenced by a number of Round 8 matches, particularly the two matches on Saturday night. With some intriguing matchups in store, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham preview the upcoming weekend.
CB
Finally in the black for 2013! About bloody time too.
GO
After last week I kept myself up by assuring myself that I was still travelling better than Melbourne. Now I’m not so sure. At least the Hawks are dominating. It’ll be a long way back from here big fella but the Shert’s good for a big run!
Results for Round 7 selections
GO – 4 selections, 5 units bet, return of 1.91 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.65 units
Total – 9 selections, 10 units bet, return of 9.56 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 25 selections, 28 units bet, return of 17.16 units, -39% PoT
CB – 32 selections, 32 units bet, return of 33.28 units, 4% PoT
Total – 57 selections, 60 units bet, return of 50.44 units, -16% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
West Coast (-19.5 to -20.5) v North Melbourne, Patersons Stadium, 8.40pm
GO
The Eagles have been disappointing at Subiaco this year. Their form is on the improve but I'm not convinced that they'll be able to keep the Roos at bay for four quarters. Three goals seems about right to me. Particularly if Swallow gets up. No play.
CB
Over 2012 and 2013 to date, North Melbourne has a 12-5 ATS record at Etihad and a 4-9 record everywhere else (including a 3-8 record in interstate matches). Meanwhile, the Eagles have a bit of their mojo back with the Cox/ Nic Nat ruck combo reunited and have won 6 of their last 7 at home against the Kangaroos. That’s good enough to see me with the home side at the minus.
Saturday
Essendon (-50.5 to -51.5) v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm
Hawthorn (-90.5 to -92.5) v GWS, Aurora Stadium, 2.10pm
Gold Coast (-10.5 to -11.5) v Western Bulldogs, Metricon Stadium, 4.40pm
Sydney (-16.5 to -18.5) v Fremantle, SCG, 7.40pm
Collingwood (+14.5 to +16.5) v Geelong, MCG, 7.40pm
CB
Some big lines early on in the day, but the matchups get progressively more interesting as the clock winds on. Who do you like?
GO
The Lions did push the Eagles for the majority at home so that sort of form argues for a look at the plus. Stanton, Dempsey and Ryder should return for the Bombers though and the Lions have had their pants pulled down at Etihad too often in recent times. Hawthorn could win by 150 but after a tough seven weeks you'd imagine a few lads will be given the week off, so it's a bit much to ask to take on the 15 goal line. Gold Coast will be looking to back up their big win last week with a W at home and they look like a real good chance to do so. The kids are flying at the minute. As Gerard Healy might say, go the Gold Cunts Suns!
CB
Leave me out of the first two games – approximately zero to get excited about there.
The Suns at the minus is tempting, given that since the start of last year, the Dogs are 2-6 ATS interstate and 5-14 ATS off a break of seven days or more, while the Suns are 4-1 ATS off a break of six days or less. However, if you put a form line through the one team they’ve both played in 2013 (Brisbane), the Bulldogs would appear to be the play. I’ll stay out of this one.
GO
The Swans should take care of the Dockers at home but I wouldn't be expecting a blowout. Fremantle have been up against it in recent times but continue to surprise with their run and ferocity. They match up well against the Swans and the real key will be whether or not Nick Smith who is the number 1 small defender in the game can shut down Walters who has been electric. Collingwood have plenty to fear this week. The Cats are flying and the majority of their drive this year has come from their small brigade. With Shaw out the Pies are scraping the bottom of the barrel in the back 6 and will get dusted. Load up on the Cats to win by over 39.5.
CB
Fun fact #1 – over 2012/13, the Swans are 14-3 ATS in day games, 2-2 in twilight and 4-7 at night. Why didn’t I think of this before last Saturday night against the Hawks? Because I’m an idiot, that’s why. The Dockers’ last four trips to the SCG have resulted in two wins and two losses by 13 points or less. Throw in their 7-3 ATS record at night over 2012/13 and despite their growing absentee list, I like them with the significant start.
Fun fact #2 – since they last met in Round 16 of 2012, Collingwood have an 9-8 win-loss record and a percentage of 97, while Geelong have a 14-2 record and a percentage of 124. Against the spread in 2013 the Magpies are 0-2 at night, 1-3 at the MCG and 1-4 off a seven day or more break, while Geelong are 4-1 at night, 2-0 at the MCG and 2-1 off a seven day or more break. It’s the Cats at the minus for mine.
Sunday
Carlton (-17.5 to -19.5) v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Richmond (-70.5) v Melbourne, MCG, 3.15pm
Adelaide (-20.5 to -21.5) v St Kilda, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
The Blues continue their tale of woe at Etihad – they’re now 3-8 ATS here since the start of 2012, compared to a 9-3 record at the MCG. Meanwhile, Port has covered 10 of their last 13 interstate matches and six out of seven matches overall in 2013. I’m taking on the Blues at Etihad yet again – it just seems like a profitable long-term position to take.
GO
The fairytale may be over for the Power who looked slow last week. Hartlett isn't handling the tag and Westhoff is playing more like Hasellhoff after a big start. They could be found out for pace and polish against the Blues this week who've been solid after a slow start. Richmond with a 12 goal start is not something to get too loose about. We'll use this space to send our best to Knightsy who's out for the year. All the best mate!
CB
I’m not betting at the line in the last two games of the week, which gives me plenty of time to discuss another point.
In our 2013 AFL Punters Guide, we noted that you could have posted a 123-84 betting record (59% strike rate) by simply betting the over in all day games (59-42 over, or 58%), the under in all twilight games (20-15 under, or 57%) and the under in all night games (44-27 under, or 62%), and that these trends should be watched again in 2013.
How are things faring after seven rounds? Day matches have gone 19-12 over (61%), twilight matches are 5-4 under (56%) and night matches are 12-11 under (52%). Thus the same combination of betting strategies outlined above would give you a 36-27 record, a 57% strike rate and a nice little profit. Why haven’t I been doing this for seven weeks, or indeed even starting this weekend? Oh right, the idiot thing from the Swans-Freo section.
GO
I can't see Lynch kicking 10 again this week and Jerka Jenkins will have to work a bit harder as well. They'll take some confidence from the win and Dangerfield looks to be over his slump. The Saints were very good on Monday and Reiwoldt is leading the way. Jack Steven looks a special player. This one will be pretty close I reckon.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Gold Coast -9.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Geelong to win by over 39.5 at $3.50 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Carlton -17.5 at $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Adelaide v St Kilda either side under 15.5 at $3.20 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on West Coast -20.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Fremantle +18.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Geelong -17.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide +19.5 at $1.90 TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
