The 2013 NFL Lines – Week 11
Results for Week 10 selections
NT – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.83 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 3.82 units
Total – 7 selections, 7 units bet, return of 5.65 units
Results for 2013 selections
NT – 31 selections, 31.5 units bet, return of 28.73 units, -9% PoT
CB – 31 selections, 31 units bet, return of 21.23 units, -32% PoT
Total – 62 selections, 62.5 units bet, return of 49.96 units, -20% PoT
Recommended Bets
NT
Oakland +7.5 at Houston @ $1.87 (Centrebet)
We were gifted a touchdown of more than a touchdown against the Giants last week and get the same against the Texans. Houston aren't very good and now have Wade Phillips coaching. Take the points!
New Orleans -3 v San Francisco @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
It makes me sick to tip against my beloved Niners but the Saints have won and covered 13 straight at home under Sean Payton. They are one of the best teams in the NFL on their own patch.
Carolina ML v New England @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
The Panthers have a monster defence and an offence that can move the ball. The Pats have protection issues and have been ravaged by injury. Lay the 1.
CB
Dislcaimer: Total points bets are killing me this season, so I’ve ditched them.
Oakland +7.5 at Houston @ $1.87 (Centrebet)
The Raiders are 3-1 ATS as road dogs (3 of their 4 road losses have been against the combined 23-4 record of the Chiefs, Broncos and Colts), while the Texans are 0-3 ATS as faves, 0-4 ATS at home and have lost 7 straight matches. How are the Phillips/ Keenan combination laying more than a TD to anyone other than Jacksonville?
Cleveland +5.5 at Cincinnati @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Bengals are injury-ravaged, are 2-3 ATS as faves and have lost to a pair of teams (Miami and Baltimore) in the past two weeks who are mediocre at best. The Browns arrive off a bye, have a 3-1 ATS record when underdogs of between 3.5 and 7 points and can move to within half a game of the AFC North lead with an upset victory here. It’s not beyond them.
Detroit -1 at Pittsburgh @ $1.87 (Centrebet)
The Lions are 3-1 ATS as road faves, while the Steelers are 0-3 ATS as underdogs and 3-6 ATS overall. 2 of the 3 Steelers’ wins in the season to date have come against rookie QBs – a far cry from the Matt Stafford to Megatron challenge they face this week and their record against teams above .500 is 1-4 (the one win coming against a rookie QB).
New Orleans -3 v San Francisco @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
I can’t expand on Nick’s argument any further, so I’m not going to.
Kansas City +9.5 at Denver @ $1.80 (Centrebet)
The Chiefs had 2 weeks to prepare (teams off a 10+ day break are 23-17 ATS this season) and are 4-0 ATS on the road, while the Broncos are only 5-4 ATS despite Peyton Manning tracking towards approximately 3,876 TDs for the year and have played 8 teams with a .500 record or below (losing to the only winning record-team in the Colts). Too many points for mine.
Carolina ML v New England @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
The Panthers are 3-1 ATS at home, while the Pats 1-3 ATS on the road. This year the Pats on the road: fell in against Buffalo, beat the 2-7 Falcons, lost to Cincy and the Jets. Now they face a team who concede less than 13 points per game. The last couple of years tell us that the Pats really struggle with teams who can pressure the pass; we have such a case here.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
