The 2013 NFL Lines – Week 9
Results for Week 8 selections
NT – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.87 units
CB – No bets whilst at a life retreat re-examining his NFL form
Total – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.87 units
Results for 2013 selections
NT – 26 selections, 26.5 units bet, return of 24.95 units, -6% PoT
CB – 21 selections, 21 units bet, return of 12.56 units, -40% PoT
Total – 47 selections, 47.5 units bet, return of 37.51 units, -21% PoT
Recommended Bets
NT
CINCINNATI @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON CINCINNATI -1 AT $1.77 (LUXBET)
Leave me out of the Dolphins. Their offence could not take advantage of an injury-wrecked Patriots. They certainly won't be able to move the ball against a very good Bengals defence. If Andy Dalton goes like he did last week, boom!
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND: 1 UNIT ON CLEVELAND +2.5 AT $1.95 (BET365)
The Ravens are terribly overrated. I don't mind the look of the Browns with Jason Campbell and their defence, simply, is better than that of the Ravens. The Ravens have been horrible on the road. The Browns should be favoured here.
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON GREEN BAY -10.5 AT $1.98 (TW)
The Bears defence has been abhorrent this year. They have conceded at least 21 in their last seven and 40-plus in two of their last four. We all know how quickly Aaron Rodgers can pile on the points. He decimated Minnesota last week and will do the same on his own patch this week. The Packers have made the number five straight v the Bears. They should make it six.
CB
CINCINNATI @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON OVER 42.0 TOTAL POINTS AT $1.91 (CENTREBET)
The Bengals are 5-3 over, including 3-1 over on the road. The Dolphins are 4-3 over, including 2-1 over at home. Importantly, both sides come here off just a 4-day break: in 2013 to date, sides coming off a break of 6 days or less are 20-9 over. Night matches are also 16-10 over so far in 2013.
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA: 1 UNIT ON CAROLINA -7.5 AT $1.93 (LUXBET)
The Falcons are 0-3 ATS on the road this year while the Panthers are 2-1 ATS at home, and arrive here off a 10-day break (sides off a break of 10+ days are 15-9 ATS this season).
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS: 1 UNIT ON DALLAS -10.0 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS as home favourites while the Vikings are 1-2 ATS as road dogs. The Cowboys may be 4-4, but 3 losses have come by a combined 5 points, and 3 wins have come by 14 or more points. Meanwhile, since the bye the Vikings are 0-3 with a 48-102 combined score across those games.
NEW ORLEANS @ NY JETS: 1 UNIT ON NY JETS +6.0 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
We’ve been here before with the Saints – I’d much rather lay 12 points about them at home than 6 points on the road at an outdoor venue. The Jets are 3-1 ATS at home while the Saints are 1-1-1 ATS on the road.
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON GREEN BAY -10.5 AT $1.98 (TW) AND 1 UNIT ON OVER 50.0 TOTAL POINTS AT $1.91 (CENTREBET)
As Nick mentioned, the Bears have been terrible on defence all year, conceding 29.4 PPG. The Packers have cracked 28 points on offense in 5 of 7 matches so far. Unsurprisingly based on those statistics, the Bears are 1-6 ATS (1-2 ATS on the road) and 6-1 over, while the Packers are 5-2 ATS (3-0 ATS at home) and 4-3 over so far this year. Night matches are 16-10 over.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
