The AFL Lines – Rd 10

Filed in AFL, AFL Lines by on May 25, 2011

Round 9 offered a degree of clarity regarding the 2011 season – Hawthorn and Carlton made it clear that they belong in the ‘top tier’ of sides, Sydney definitely belong in the ‘second tier’ with Essendon, Fremantle and a resurgent West Coast. Richmond hover on the fringes. The Bulldogs are in significant trouble and most of the other sides are unlikely to be anything beyond nuisance value in the run to the finals. Once again, Cliff Bingham and Greg Oberscheidt cast their eyes over the matches and give you their recommended bets for the Round 10 action.

CB – Dear oh dear – I build the entire premise for tipping Sydney last week around the Swans dominating the ruck and the SCG being too small for Buddy to cut loose, and what happens? The Hawks get the better of the centre battle and Buddy runs riot with 28 touches and six goals. Of course he does. Still, it is a long season and there is plenty of time to regroup and recover, starting with Round 10.

GO – I was lambasted for betting against my own team and rightly got my comeuppance. I won’t be making that mistake again. Round 9 saw some big moves by the mid tier teams and with the top 8 starting to take shape, Round 10 will be pivotal in the finals makeup. Some big outs for some of the contenders will open doors for the challengers and I expect to see some hard fought battles over the weekend. 

Summary of Round 9 results

GO – Six selections, six units bet, return of $5.70, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -5%

CB – Four selections, four units bet, return of $1.90, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -53%

Summary of overall results

GO – Ten selections, eleven units bet, return of $13.30, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 21%

CB – Eight selections, eight units bet, return of $5.70, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -29%


(Please note – all times are EST)


Melbourne v Carlton, MCG, 7.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Carlton -30.5

GO – It has taken time for me to come around on the Blues but their performance last week has definitely sold me. With Kreuzer finding his feet in the magoos there is plenty to like about them. Their faster small forwards in Gartlett and Betts should have a field day against the Dees whose defence has proven feeble at times. Davey is likely to miss with an ankle injury but might have been omitted at any rate. Stefan Martin holds the key for Melbourne, especially with Warnock out with concussion, but I expect the Blues engine room to dominate and their quick transition will expose the Dees. I like the Blues at the minus for one unit.

CB – Carlton showed plenty of fight against Geelong last Friday night – they are a better side than I had them pegged to be. Head-to-head, these teams have only played three times in the past three seasons and the Blues have prevailed by at least five goals on every occasion. Current form suggests that trend will continue. The only thing preventing me from taking the minus here is that the Gold Coast game aside, Carlton have yet to genuinely put a team to the sword. This may well prove to be the week it happens, but I‘d like to see it first – no recommended bet.



North Melbourne v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Sydney -6.5

GO – Sydney need to bounce back here after last weeks mauling at the hands of the Hawks. Mumford will be out to re-assert his dominance and with McIntosh still out and Goldstein unlikely I think he will set the tone. Goodes should be embarrassed by his efforts last week and I think he will have a big impact. The Kangas are struggling. They compete for patches but tend to run out of legs in the back half of quarters and Etihad takes no prisoners in time on. That being said, Wells has had his biggest impact under the lid as has Boomer, but I don’t think it will be enough to get the job done. Play one unit on the Swans – 6.5

CB – Following last week’s loss, the evidence is overwhelming that Sydney are a ‘second tier’ side – they’ve lost to ‘first tier’ sides Geelong, Hawthorn and Carlton (yet to play Collingwood) and defeated fellow ‘second tier’ sides Essendon and West Coast (yet to play Fremantle). Meanwhile, North Melbourne have beaten only Melbourne and Port Adelaide so far in 2011 and with the loss to Brisbane last week, I can mark them no higher than a ‘fourth tier’ team. Sydney must take care of business against poor sides and they do have a strong history in this regard. The Swans have won the last four encounters (albeit only one played in Melbourne) and have not lost to North Melbourne since 2007. Given the small line and the importance of this game to the Swans, I think they bounce back with a win this week and will bet one unit on the Swans at the minus.


Fremantle v St Kilda, Patersons Stadium, 3.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Fremantle -10.5

GO – St Kilda beat the enigmatic Dees last week and the performances of Goddard, Reiwoldt and Montagna have been highly publicised. Whilst it must be refreshing for the Saints supporters to see these guys having an impact (finally) it hasn’t done enough to convince me that they can compete with the top eight sides. Sandilands out leaves a massive hole for the Dockers who were already down to 25 fit players and with the Subiaco advantage there are too many variables in this one to recommend a bet. Sit this one out.

CB – St Kilda have won the last six encounters (including two at Subiaco), but there are very different Fremantle and St Kilda sides in 2011 to those of recent years. Nonetheless, the loss of Aaron Sandilands for four weeks to ‘turf toe’ makes this a danger game for the Dockers, negating their significant advantage in the ruck (and by extension, in the centre clearances). As we saw last week in the Essendon v Richmond, losing key clearance players can have a profound effect on the outcome, and thus no recommended bet for me.


Gold Coast v Geelong, Gold Coast Stadium, 7.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Geelong -64.5

GO – The Cats are set to rest Ottens for their trip north, which will make Zac Smith a happy man, but I doubt it will have enough impact to slow the Geelong juggernaut. In what will be their biggest test to date, I think Bluey’s boys will make a good showing but the harder bodies of the Cats will be far too good. Ablett will be trying his best to turn the tide but I think his old teammates will be out to shut the great man down. I’m playing two units Geelong at the minus and I’ll probably have a nibble at them to win by 100 if the right opportunity presents.

CB – The unveiling of a new stadium and Gary Ablett pitted against his old team for the first time – the dramatic effect is there. It’s a shame that the match itself will be one-way traffic. All losses the Suns have suffered to date bar one have come by more than the 64.5 point line (they lost to Adelaide by 57). They lost to both Carlton and Essendon by triple figures, and it’s fair to say that Geelong are at least as good (if not a touch better) than any opponent the Suns have seen to date. A 15-to-20 goal margin would not surprise me here, and therefore I will be betting two units on Geelong at the minus.


Richmond v Port Adelaide, TIO Stadium, 8.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Richmond -30.5

GO – Richmond were impressive last week and Port were woeful yet again. If this match was played anywhere other than Darwin I would be having a lash at the minus but not having enough insight into the conditions worries me a bit. It’s a long way from home and from memory Port play pretty well up there. Being 3,000km away from the taunts of their fans should also help the Power and as such, I’m going to leave this one well and truly alone.

CB – Playing this match in Darwin renders the recent head-to-head record (Port 5-4 since 2005, 2-all since 2008) less meaningful than would otherwise be the case, and thus the current form of both sides is the best point of reference. Take out the win against Adelaide and the narrow loss to Gold Coast at home and here are Port Adelaide’s losing margins in 2011 so far – 75, 18, 79, 60, 32, 62 and 52 – no wonder there is consternation about the club culture! After nearly deciding last week to bet against Port every single week (accepting that in perhaps four out of twelve matches they’d play out of their skin and cover the spread by about ten goals, but fail to cover in any of the other eight weeks) I’m enacting that decision now – one unit on Richmond at the minus.



Adelaide v Brisbane, AAMI Stadium, 1.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Adelaide -25.5

GO – “Cometh the hour – cometh the man” Jonathon Brown is a dead set superstar. I know they only beat the Kangas but their play was improved out of sight. They straightened up and went to their captain at every chance and he didn’t let them done. As predicted, Taylor Walker played SANFL and then got on the piss at the Crows game the next day. Clever. You have a reputation for thinking you are bigger than the game, you get dropped and what is your reaction…get on the froth in front of 40,000 people. Adelaide are in big trouble. The AAMI factor should be enough but neither side inspires confidence so I’ll sit out.

CB –  Jonathan Brown seems to have been the elixir that the Lions needed with their first win of the season coming last week – either that, or they just needed to face off against a lowly opponent at their home ground. A tougher assignment lies in wait this week against a Crows outfit who gave Collingwood an almighty fright last week. The head-to-head record shows Adelaide winning five of the last seven encounters (including two out of two at Football Park over that period). This feels like a trap game to bet in – I don’t want to trust a 3-5 side to take care of a four goal line against a slight rejuvenated opponent, nor do I want a 1-7 side on the road – no recommended bet for mine.


Collingwood v West Coast, MCG, 2.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Collingwood -33.5

GO – Wow. The Eagles drubbing of the Dogs was one of the most comprehensive wins I’ve seen in a long time. The most impressive thing was the emergence of Josh Kennedy as a match winner. If you had told me pre-season that West Coast could kick 26 goals with LeCras only potting three, I would have slapped you twice. One for suggesting they could kick 26 and one for thinking LeCras wouldn’t kick half their score as he has for the last two years. Collingwood were well held for three and half quarters by the Crows but when they decided to pull the finger out, it was something rarely seen – 11 goals in 15 minutes. I think the Pies will rise to the occasion this week but will not be taking a risk with the highly impressive Eagles – no recommended bet.

CB – Collingwood have won the last four encounters between the two teams with a couple of hidings being handed out within those matches, but I think the Eagles are made of sterner stuff this season and should be quite competitive. What might that translate to in terms of a winning margin for the Magpies? Well, Collingwood beat both Carlton and Essendon by around five goals, and in their current form, the Eagles are only fractionally off the pace of those two teams. I would suggest that the line is around the right mark, and thus no recommended bet for me.


Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Hawthorn -21.5

GO – The Hawks are officially flying after an uneasy start. Buddy is the fittest he has been and this is showing in his impact around the ground. Roughead has been revelling in the midfield and Sewell and Lewis are emerging as elite players. Conversely, the Dogs are at their lowest point in a decade after their capitulation last week. They’ll be out for redemption but won’t find it against the Hawks. I’d love to put it all on the Hawks but reasonable limits should apply and as such I’ll be putting three units on the Hawks at the minus.

CB – Trying to protect your current lead for the next four months by thinking like I do won’t get you anywhere in life Greg. The Western Bulldogs’ record in 2011 against sides currently in the eight – lost to Essendon by 55, lost to Fremantle by 7, lost to Sydney by 8, lost to West Coast by 122! Now contrast this with the Hawks. Hawthorn have a 6-2 record and broke out to good leads in both of their losses, one of which came against the unbeaten Geelong. The last six matches between the teams have seen three wins apiece, but this is the worst that the Dogs have looked in a number of years. How can the dispirited Dogs return home from a Subiaco drubbing and handle the Hawks’ midfield? More to the point, how do they stop Buddy from cutting loose like he did against Sydney? I have a feeling this one could get lopsided quickly – two units on Hawthorn at the minus for me.


Recommended bet summary

GO – One unit on Carlton -30.5, one unit on Sydney -6.5, two units on Geelong -64.5, three units on Hawthorn -21.5.

CB – One unit on Sydney -6.5, two units on Geelong -64.5, one unit on Richmond -30.5, two units on Hawthorn -21.5.

Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo


Comments (1)

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  1. Nick Tedeschi says:

    Hawks minus, leave me alone!