The AFL Lines – Rd 13
Round 13 poses an interesting challenge for a number of key protagonists. The finals hopes of Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond and Melbourne have the potential to sink dramatically with a loss on the weekend. At Making the Nut, the hopes of Cliff Bingham catching the overall profit/ loss record of sparring partner Greg Oberscheidt could also sink dramatically with any further extension in Greg’s significant current lead. The boys return this week with their recommended bets for the upcoming round.
CB – Another solid week in Round 12, with a combined record of 6-2 for recommended units bet against the spread. Sadly, I couldn’t make any ground on you, with honours being split at 3-1 apiece. An important lesson revived itself in the Suns match – beware the ‘letdown week’ after a strong performance, particularly when evaluating a young team. I still think the Gold Coast Suns are progressing nicely, but young teams can be violently inconsistent and thus it is difficult to proceed in any of their matches with great confidence.
GO – North are starting to be rewarded for their consistent efforts with a few wins and are shaping as a contender for finals action. I think the Suns results will become even harder to predict as the season wears on and the rotations they need for their young legs and the subsequent selection of tier players makes their results more of a lottery. Hawthorn could present some good opportunities as the bookies will underestimate the damage that Roughead’s injury has caused to their structure. I’m looking forward to the second half of the year and let see if we can’t win some more loot.
Summary of Round 12 results
GO – Four selections, four units bet, return of $5.70, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 43%
CB – Three selections, four units bet, return of $5.70, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 43%
Summary of overall results
GO – 22 selections, 27 units bet, return of $39.90, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 48%
CB – 18 selections, 21 units bet, return of $22.80, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 9%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Western Bulldogs –26.5
GO – The battle for 13th spot looks set to be a snore. Under normal circumstances it would be a shootout but with Tippett going down and Walker still injured, the Crows are down to zero key forward options. Dangerfield has proven he can kick bags but not on the number one defender. The Crows will struggle to kick a score and as such, the minus looks like the option. The Dogs play Etihad well but the size of the line is the only concern. Hopefully Neil Craig will let the boys play footy instead of shutting this one down. I’ll play the Dogs at the minus for one unit.
CB – Two sides coming into this match on the back of respective four-game losing streaks makes for an ugly game. Extending the point, the average losing margin across all eight of those encounters has been a whopping 51 points. Head-to-head, the Bulldogs have won four of the last five overall and the last three played at the Docklands. With a gun to my head I would tip the Bulldogs to win again here, albeit that I feel 26.5 is too many points for them to giving away as the start, but there is no way I will be parting with any cash on this encounter.
Saturday
Hawthorn v Gold Coast, Aurora Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Hawthorn –74.5
GO – For Hawthorn to prove they are still a genuine premiership threat, they need to be ruthless on Saturday. Anything less than a 100-point win will not be sufficient in the eyes of Hawks supporters (i.e. mine.) Franklin needs to stand up in the wake of criticism this week and the likelihood of McKenna playing a developing player on him for the experience looms high. Ablett’s form has been great but he hasn’t had much support lately. All indications are a play at Hawthorn at the minus but 12 goals is just too much start to be recommending considering the Hawks injuries. No play.
CB – Reasons to take Hawthorn at the minus include: the vast chasm between the haves and have-nots in 2011, the fact that the Suns have been beaten by 57 points or more in seven of their eight losses to date, the Hawks boasting an 8-1 season record against teams not named Geelong. Reasons to take the Suns at the plus include: 74.5 is simply a lot of points to be receiving, the impact Jarryd Roughead’s injury will have on the attacking flair of the Hawks and the fact that Aurora Stadium is a large ground where wind often plays a big part, making scoring (and by extension, covering a big line) difficult. On balance, this match still feels a little awkward, and thus I cannot recommend a bet here.
Essendon v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Essendon -8.5
GO – BOOM. They have got this one ass-about. The Bombers are on the slide with losses to Richmond, Melbourne and Freo over the last three weeks. Watson will be better for the run last week, and they will regain Hocking, but North’s form has been very good. Granted they have beaten ordinary sides, but they have been resounding wins. Wells is playing great footy and Swallow is an absolute jet. Goldstein has emerged as a force and should easily handle the rotation of Bellchambers and Hille. Petrie is providing a great target and their back six are very solid. Hird will be pleading with his players to fight back from their slump but I think the Kangas work rate and structure are superior at the moment and as such I’ll be playing two units on North at the plus.
CB – As an Essendon fan, I cannot recommend a bet against my own side. With that disclaimer out of the way, on many other levels the red flags are easy to observe for the Bombers. They arrive on the back of three straight losses (two in quite convincing fashion) against mid-table sides, while North Melbourne has posted two convincing victories (albeit they were against lowly opponents) since losing a heartbreaker to the Swans. Head-to-head, North Melbourne has won four of the last six matches. I’m too emotionally invested in this match to recommend a financial investment, but could understand people tipping North in this match.
Brisbane v Richmond, Gabba, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Richmond -7.5
GO – On face value, this looks like an easy one. Richmond have plenty to play for whilst the Lions are playing for pride. The midfield battle will determine this one. It’s almost a toss of the coin, Brisbane with Black, Redden, Rockliff, Rich and Power up against Cotchin, Martin, Foley, Delidio and Jackson. If the combination of Leuenberger and Clark can give the Lions first use then I think they are a great chance. Jonathon Brown should have a big impact given Richmond’s defensive woes, as should Reiwoldt in the absence of Merrett. Brisbane lost by ten goals to Carlton and Richmond lost by ten behinds to Sydney so I can’t really split their form. I’m going to go out on a limb here and play one unit on Brisbane at the plus.
CB – Finally, we go toe-to-toe on a match! A huge game coming up for the Tigers – it may even be season defining. Certainly a loss would leave a big definition (read: scar) on their season. The good news for the Tigers is that they have had the wood on Brisbane for some time now, with six wins and a draw from their last eight encounters (including three wins from as many appearances at the Gabba). With all the motivational factors pointing to the Tigers and no Daniel Merrett on hand to mark Jumpin’ Jack Riewoldt, it feels like a game that the Tigers must (and will) take – two units on Richmond at the minus.
St Kilda v Geelong, MCG, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Geelong -24.5
GO – Geelong have lost their hardest contested ball winner but have plenty of guys lining up to fill the breach. The Saints are showing some signs that the desire is returning and the output of Goddard and Nick Dal Santo is promising but they still have plenty of holes. Geelong will win this one but the Saints have a nasty habit of trying to choke games as soon as they feel the pump. As such I’m not confident with the minus so I’ll sit this one out.
CB – This feels like a trap game for Geelong. The absence of Joel Selwood, combined with a history of low scoring matches between the two sides (you have to go back five matches to find an example of either side reaching 90 points) and St Kilda taking out three of the past five matches has be a little wary of stepping into the minus. There is every possibility that the match will turn into an old-fashioned arm wrestle for supremacy. In matches like that, you generally want the points – one unit on St Kilda at the plus.
Sunday
Melbourne v Fremantle, MCG, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Melbourne -3.5
GO – Mark Harvey showed his skills again last week with some innovative positional changes. Zac Clarke playing as a third up ruckman was very effective and gave the midfield runners first use. Pavlich returned to form on the back of this as well. Melbourne should be collectively disgusted after their performance against an undermanned Collingwood. Scully and Trengrove are bright spots and Moloney tries but the rest of them really struggle to play Bailey’s game plan. They turned the ball over consistently and lacked intensity in defence. Freo don’t win at the MCG often but they do win. I’ll back Freo at the plus for one unit.
CB – Much as with the Essendon – North Melbourne game, another proverbial ‘eight point match’ is in the offing here. Each sides have won two of their last six matches this season, had one respectable loss and been thumped three times, so neither carries a strong form line into this match. Fremantle continue without Aaron Sandilands (posting their first win in the last ten matches without him against Essendon last Sunday) and have an abysmal record (nine wins from 36 matches) at the MCG. Still, do you want to back Melbourne, a side who already have five losses of 41 points or more on their 2011 record? I don’t – no recommended bet.
Carlton v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carlton -24.5
GO – Sydney played really well last week and young Reid looks to be a gun. If they had kicked straight then they would have won by ten goals. Inaccuracy shouldn’t play as much of a role under the lid at Etihad. Carlton is in stellar form and really did a job on Brisbane. The form of their midfield has been massive for them as has Scotland’s delivery off half back. Kruezer looked good first game back and will only get better. With Walker performing and Betts and Garlett at ground level, they have a host of options and their under-rated defence continues to stand up. I’ll stick with the Blues and have one unit on the minus.
CB – Sydney have lost all three games so far this season against top-4 sides (by 27 points to Geelong, 16 points to Carlton and 46 points to Hawthorn) despite playing each match at home and I don’t see them turning the tide on Sunday. More broadly, the combined record of the top four sides against the rest of the competition is an astounding 32-1-1, with the Hawks upsetting that applecart via their opening round loss to Adelaide. Head-to-head Sydney has the advantage, winning eight of the last ten matches, including four out of five at the Docklands. However, 2011 is a very different proposition – the Swans are the best of the rest, while the Blues are an intrinsic part of the big four. As tempting as it is to take the Blues at the minus here, 24.5 is just a handful too many points to feel comfortable about giving away against solid opposition, so there is no recommended bet from me.
West Coast v Port Adelaide, Patersons Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: West Coast -48.5
GO – Any side running into the ruck duo of Cox and Nic Nat is in for a tough day. It was great, and scary, to see Daniel Kerr busting the packs last week and he seems to have regained his explosiveness. Cliffo made a pact a few weeks ago to take on Port regardless of the line, and due to their form, it looks a good play. Eight goals is a big start but West Coast are now considered a potential top four side so they should dispose of the wooden spooners with plenty to spare – one unit on the Eagles at the minus.
CB – I don’t care that head-to-head, Port Adelaide has won seven of the last ten matches, including three out of four at Patersons Stadium. They are insipid and lack the heart for the fight (see five of their nine losses to date being by more than ten goals as my evidence). Moreover, they have played five games away from home in 2011 and already suffered four losses by ten goals or more. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ last four performances at home have led to wins over Melbourne, Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs and the Gold Coast. Backing Port Adelaide seems like a good way to lose money; ergo, backing against them seems like a good way to make money – one unit on West Coast at the minus.
Recommended bet summary
GO – One unit on Western Bulldogs – 26.5, two units on North Melbourne +8.5, one unit on Brisbane + 7.5, one unit on Fremantle + 3.5, one unit on Carlton – 24.5 and one unit on West Coast – 48.5.
CB – Two units on Richmond -7.5, one unit on St Kilda +24.5 and one unit on West Coast –48.5
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
