The AFL Lines – Rd 8
We are now seven weeks into the 2011 season and the AFL pecking order has taken significant shape, with many of the haves and have-nots going their separate ways on the ladder. With a sufficient form line now available to make assessments on a week-to-week basis, Making the Nut is pleased to introduce a new tipping column to the site. Much as with Nick Tedeschi’s ‘The Early Lines’ for all matters rugby league, Cliff Bingham and Greg Oberscheidt will run the ruler over each match-up and give you their recommended bets for the weekend.
CB – Alright Greg O, let’s get this party started. What say we have a little season-long side wager? $50, best record (in terms of units of profit/ loss) wins the cash. May the better punter win.
GO – It’s on – money for jam really.
CB – We will see about that. Four months is an eternity in football.
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Geelong v Collingwood, MCG, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Coll -16.5
CB – One of the matches of the season to start the round and I think the bookmakers have this one correct. The Magpies have beaten each of Carlton and Essendon by around five goals already this season and I think Geelong pose a bigger obstacle than either the Blues or Bombers do. For mine, it will be Collingwood prevailing by three goals. Therefore, I cannot recommend a bet.
GO – Collingwood play a hard running, expansive style of football with their spread from the contest second to none. Geelong have been re-invigorated by their new coach and the loss of Gary Ablett has been covered admirably by James Kelly. This game will be fought and won in the centre square and with Jolly a doubtful starter I think Geelong will have the edge in that department. I like the Cats with 16.5 start for a one unit play.
Saturday
North Melbourne v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Melb -1.5
CB – A rarity in football these days, with a 3-2-1 side barely favoured to beat a 1-5 side at a neutral venue. Do you know what? I like the 1-5 Roos here. Melbourne have lost Grimes to injury and Trengrove to suspension but perhaps more telling is their head to head record against North Melbourne – they have lost eight straight since the last time they bested the Kangas in Round 20 of 2006. Such a head-to-head record is difficult to ignore, and I therefore recommend one unit on North Melbourne +1.5.
GO – Melbourne have lost their 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice rucks to injury over the weekend with Newton being bandied to fill the breach. Add the loss of Trengrove and Grimes and you have to question their depth. As impressive as the Dees were against Adelaide, the loss of Jamar will nullify the impact of Moloney et al and I expect the Kangas to rally this week and kick start their season with a big win. North Melbourne are a two unit play + 1.5.
Adelaide v Gold Coast, AAMI Stadium, 3.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Adel -37.5
CB – Confession time – I thought the Crows were travelling reasonably well (awful performance against Port notwithstanding) this season before the match against Melbourne last week, but that performance was a real eye-opener. Can they be trusted to take care of a six goal line, even against a very young and raw side on the road? I say no. The Suns have posted wins against possibly the two worst sides in the competition but their smallest loss to date has been by 71 points, so I’m still not confident enough in their ability to be betting them either – no play for me.
GO – I’m steering clear of this one as well. The Suns have impressed in patches but I’m still wary of their ability to perform consistently. Let’s not forget they followed up their first win with the worst quarter of footy in the history of the sport. Adelaide need to post a result and I think they’ll win easily, but I expected the same against Melbourne so…no Play.
Brisbane v Essendon, Gabba, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Ess -32.5
CB – The red flags for tipping the Bombers at the minus – a poor record when travelling interstate and no wins against Brisbane since 2008. The red flags for tipping Brisbane at the plus – they are an extremely ordinary football side in whom you should not place any trust. Another game I will be steering well clear of.
GO – Essendon have impressed in all facets except their road play. They haven’t won outside Melbourne this year. This will change but expect a solid showing from the Lions this week who were embarrassed by their little brothers last start. Simon Black will be best on ground after his controversial statements last week but it won’t be enough to get my cash. No Play.
Sydney v Port Adelaide, SCG, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Syd -38.5
CB – Ordinarily the bigger lines each week do not attract my interest, as the outcomes are too reliant on which side is still trying their hardest at the end of a game which has already been decided. But the Power have played three road games this year and lost them all by 10 or more goals and have lost their last six at all venues to the Swans, with the three SCG losses among that group being by 55, 68 and 31 points. Swans to win in a canter – I recommend a one unit bet on them at the -38.5.
GO – The Swans impressed at Manuka last week and their overall form has been very good. Port are an absolute rabble at the moment and I doubt Matty Primus will be able to find enough lads to stand up and shut the Swans down. I can’t see anyone to go with Goodes and the intensity of Bolton and McGlynn will be far too much for the hapless Power. Sydney by 9 goals making this at one unit play, Swans -38.5
Sunday
Hawthorn v St Kilda, MCG, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Haw -19.5
CB – This feels like a trap game to me, primarily because I haven’t yet gotten a good read on the Hawks. On paper, they should cruise home in this match. However, they have two losses and a narrow win over West Coast in the books already this season, so I am not prepared to tip them with impunity against a St Kilda outfit that showed renewed vigour on Monday night against Carlton. A line of around three goals feels about right to me – no recommended bet.
GO – My heart says the Hawks by 12 goals but my head says “Nooooooo!” St Kilda may have turned a corner on Monday night and the Hawks haven’t impressed. If Clarko can find a way to minimise Goddard’s influence and Reiwoldt wears the same boots as last week then the Hawks will win easy. However the last few contests between the two have been tight low scoring affairs. If you absolutely must have a punt St Kilda at the plus would be the lean but I can’t justify a bet on this one.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: WB -6.5
CB – The recent head-to-head record is one-way traffic in favour of the Dogs, but this is the best Richmond side for a number of years and quite possibly the worst Bulldogs side since 2007. The Tigers are playing with confidence, flair and plenty of pace – three facets are currently in short supply when evaluating their opponents. Remove the wins against an injury-depleted Brisbane and a raw Gold Coast side and the Bulldogs have a record of 0-4 with an average score of 64.5 points per game. I like the Tigers +6.5 in this match and am recommending a bet of one unit.
GO – The Bulldogs can’t kick a score at present. Hall and Higgins will miss again so this only compounds their woes. Williams and Lake are out and that leaves Markovic to stand Jack Reiwoldt who will kick a bag. The Dogs midfield love to win the seed but they are downhill skiers and wont chase. Expect Martin, Cotchin and Nahas to use their leg speed and have a big influence. I think the Tigers will win this one comfortably. One unit play on the Tigers +6.5.
West Coast v Fremantle, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Freo -1.5
CB – A potential ‘match of the round’ in any other week, I am really looking forward to this version of the WA local derby. Both sides have been in the business of exceeding expectations in 2011, with the Dockers forming part of an extended argument regarding the top-4 and the Eagles in the hunt for a finals berth. The Dockers will carry my cash this weekend – aside from being (in my humble opinion) a slightly superior side to the Eagles, they also bring into this match a seven game winning streak against the Eagles dating back to 2007. Aaron Sandilands is one ruckman that Dean Cox will have a devil of a time trying to handle and thus I will recommend one unit be placed on the purple haze at the very small minus.
GO – Set to be a cracker. The Dockers have the better side but are ravished by injury. West Coast are the minnows punching above their weight and play an impressive style of footy. I think Freo will have the necessary grunt to get the job done but the form of Cox and Kerr shows shades of 05-06 and would not be at all surprised if the Coasters cause an upset and win their first Derby in 4 years. No play for me on this one.
Recommended bet summary
CB – One unit on North Melbourne +1.5, one unit on Sydney -38.5, one unit on Richmond +6.5 and one unit on Fremantle -1.5.
GO – One unit on Geelong +16.5, two units on North Melbourne +1.5, one unit on Sydney -38.5 and one unit on Richmond +6.5
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
