The Early Line: Finals Week 1

Filed in The Early Line by on September 4, 2012

The minor premiership was not enough to get Canterbury favouritism in their qualifying final with Manly, the Bulldogs getting 2 to 2.5 points. Manly have won 8 of the last 12 between the two teams, but the Bulldogs won the last clash between the two, winning 20-12 at Brookvale in round 20. The Eagles have won 5 of the last 6 against the Bulldogs at ANZ. The Bulldogs have won eight in a row at the ground while the Eagles seven of eight at the venue. This will be a great match but the Bulldogs have a stronger pack and the 2.5 points seems a little big. Bet the Bulldogs for 1 unit.

There is a lean the under but no total.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 17-7 (WLLLW), Manly 13-11 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 12-12 (UUOUO), Manly 12-12 (UUOUU)

Melbourne are favoured by 2.5 to 4 points in their qualifying final with South Sydney. The Storm have won 16 of 19 against Souths including all nine matches in Melbourne, by an average of 28.9 points, though the last two matches have been decided by 14 and two points respectively. Souths have not won a final since 1986 while the Storm have 6 of their last 8 finals in the southern capital. I think Souths can win this but they are not the same away from home and Melbourne have such a dominant record against the Bunnies, scaring me off. The plus four is most tempting and the Bunnies' forward pack should cause the Storm plenty of headaches. Close, not quite.

Souths are 15-5 over in their last 20 games as a road underdog while the Storm are 7-4 over as a home favourite this year. We will play 1 unit on the over if the line is 42.5 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 14-10 (WLLLW), Souths 14-10 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 12-12 (OOUUU), Souths 12-12 (UUUOU)

North Queensland will jump 6.5 to 7 point favourites in their all-Queensland derby elimination final with Brisbane. The Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 against the Broncos including a 12-0 win in Townsville in round 15. There is no strong situation here. The Broncos will need to lift to crack the Cowboys but the expected low score makes the big minus too hard to bet.

Keen on the under here. These two played it tight and fierce last start and the Broncos have gone under in five straight. A 1 unit play the under if the line is bigger than 38.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 13-11 (LWWLW), Brisbane 11-13 (LWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 15-9 (UOOUO), Brisbane 9-15 (UUUUU)

Canberra are remarkably a favourite in a home final, starting 3.5-point faves against Cronulla. The Sharks have won 7 of 11 against the Raiders including 6 of the last 8 in Canberra. I have been playing against the Raiders as favourites and at home all year and it would be foolish to stop now. Play the plus for 2 units.

There is a slight lean the over but nothing too play.

COVER FORM: Canberra 12-12 (WWLWW), Cronulla 14-10 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 13-11 (UUUUO), Cronulla 9-15 (OUUUO)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Canterbury, South Sydney, North Queensland
1 unit on Canterbury +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Over (Mel-Sou) if the line is 42.5 or smaller
1 unit on Under (NQ-Bri) if the line is 38 or bigger
2 units on Cronulla +3.5 at Centrebet at $1.91

Overall:273.5 units bet for 277.99 units returned for a POT of 1.64%
Line:128 units bet for 136.05 units returned for a POT of 6.29%
Total:145.5 units bet for 141.94 units returned for a POT of -2.45%



Comments (2)

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  1. Keyboard Rambo says:

    Thanks for all the info & tips throughout the year Nick.

    Any chance next year we can get someone other than Shaun Johnson's mug attached to the weekly write-ups? Or does the NRL forbid you to use first-graders?