The Early Line: Finals Week 1

One of the great modern rivalries plays out on Friday night with the Wests Tigers and St George-Illawarra squaring off, the Dragons going off at 2 to 2.5 point favourites.

The Dragons have won 4 of their last 5 against the Tigers but Tim Sheens’ men won when the two teams last met 16-14. ANZ Stadium looks to suit the Dragons, who have won 11 of 12 at the ground compared to the Tigers who have lost four straight at the venue and only won four of their last 15. I think the Dragons are a tougher outfit and at the venue, a small 1 unit play at the minus is on.

This should be a gritty contest and with both teams under sides and the last eight between the two not totalling 41, play 1 unit on the under if the line is 36 or higher.

COVER FORM:Wests Tigers 11-13 (WWWWL), Dragons 12-12 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM:Wests Tigers 11-13 (UOOOO), Dragons 9-15 (UUUOO)
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Brisbane go into their clash with New Zealand as 2 to 2.5 point favourites.

I am very keen on the Warriors, who have covered every game since their round 17 bye and are the leading betting team of the year with a 16-8 ATS record. The Broncos lose a lot of dynamism and mongrel without Sam Thaiday and the Warriors have won four of their last seven and nearly pinched victory at Lang Park in round 22. Bet 3 units on the Warriors plus 2.5.

No total bet.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 15-9 (LWWWL), New Zealand 16-8 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM:Brisbane 10-14 (OOUUU), New Zealand 8-16 (OUUOU)
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Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!

Manly are 6.5 to 7.5 point favourites against North Queensland in their Saturday evening semi-final.

The Cowboys are some hope in this with Glenn Stewart a huge out for Manly. They have won 7 of 12 but have not beaten Manly in Sydney since 2005 and have lost on all six occasions in Sydney this year. I have a slight leaning North Queensland but no play.

No total bet.

COVER FORM: Manly 15-9 (WLWWW), North Queensland 15-9 (LLWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM:Manly 10-14 (OOOUU), North Queensland 14-10 (UOOUU)
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Melbourne have opened up 10 point favourites in their 1 v 8 clash with Newcastle at AAMI Park.

The rout looks like it is one here. Eighth has beaten first in two of the last three years but with Newcastle backing into the finals and the Storm having their three big guns back and healthy for the first time in a month, the Storm should win this and win this well. Melbourne have won 12 of 16 against Newcastle and the Knights haven’t won in Melbourne since 2004. The Storm are 16-2 in their last 18 at AAMI Park and have kept opponents to a single try in eight of their last 13 at home. Bet 2.5 units on the Storm giving 10.

No total play.

COVER FORM:Melbourne 16-8 (WWLLL), Newcastle 11-13 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM:Melbourne 9-15 (UOUUO), Newcastle 9-15 (OUUOO)
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Tips: St George-Illawarra, New Zealand, Manly, Melbourne

1 unit on St George-Illawarra -2 at Sportsbet at $1.92
1 unit on Under (Tigers-Dragons) if line is 36 or bigger
3 units on New Zealand +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
2.5 units on Melbourne -10 at Luxbet at $1.91
Remember, a standing 2 unit under bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13
18                10        18.5              12.43                            -6.07
19                11        20.5              13.40                            -7.10
20                 9         16                 22.94                           +6.94
21                 7         13.5              3.84                             -9.66
22                10        15                 12.27                           -2.73    
23                 8         12.5              16.23                          +3.73
24                 9         17                 17.64                          +0.64
25                 8         14.5              15.36                          +0.86
26                 7         10.5              9.50                            -1.00

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                198         348.5           357.62                   +9.12