The Early Line: Finals Week 2

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on September 13, 2011

The Wests Tigers open their semi-final clash with New Zealand as 8.5 point favourites.

The Warriors were awful last week, getting hammered by 30. In their last 11 matches following a 20-point defeat over the last three years, the Warriors have bounced back with a win only twice. Up against a Tigers team that has won nine straight, it is hard to picture the Warriors turning last week’s result around. The most concerning aspect of last week was not Manu Vatuvei’s errors but the meekness of the Warriors’ key position players. The Tigers have won their last three against the Warriors and should make it a fourth with a 1 unit play on the minus a play.

There is a lean on the under here but the Warriors giving in so badly last week has me concerned about something similar going on this week. No bet.

COVER FORM:Wests Tigers 12-13 (WWWLW), New Zealand 16-9 (WWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 12-13 (OOOOO), New Zealand 9-16 (UUOUO)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Brisbane will go around 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites in their home semi-final against St George-Illawarra.

I am officially off the Dragons and to my eye Brisbane should be joint premiership favourites with the Storm. The Broncos were magnificent against the Warriors and seem to be underrated even after the decimation. Everyone has the Dragons getting better but I just don’t see it after last week. They had every opportunity against the Tigers but their best asset, their defence, let them down. The Broncos have won four of five against the Dragons and the last three at Lang Park while the Dragons have not won away from home since round 10. Wayne Bennett has, surprisingly, won only two of the last 13 matches played between his two most recent sides. Bet 2 units on the Broncos giving up the 2.5 points.

I fancy the under quite a lot here. Only one of the six matches since Bennett’s move has totalled more than 37 and these two will go to what they know best: defence. Bet 2 units under if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 16-9 (WWWLW), Dragons 12-13 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 11-14 (OUUUO), Dragons 10-15 (UUOOO)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Weekly Specials – Up to $1,200 in Bonus Bets

Tips: Wests Tigers, Brisbane

1 units on the Wests Tigers -8.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2 units on Brisbane -2.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2 units on Under (Broncos-Dragons) if the line is 36.5 or bigger

Remember, a standing 2 unit under bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13
18                10        18.5              12.43                            -6.07
19                11        20.5              13.40                            -7.10
20                 9         16                 22.94                           +6.94
21                 7         13.5              3.84                             -9.66
22                10        15                 12.27                           -2.73    
23                 8         12.5              16.23                          +3.73
24                 9         17                 17.64                          +0.64
25                 8         14.5              15.36                          +0.86
26                 7         10.5              9.50                            -1.00
27                 3         6.5                2.38                            -4.12

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                201         355               360                           +5.00

100 Bonus + comeback refund

Image:

Tags: ,

Comments are closed.