The Early Line: Grand Final
Manly have opened up 6 point favourites across the board against New Zealand in Sunday’s Grand Final despite the Warriors’ impressive win over the Storm.
The Warriors match-up well with New Zealand again holding a big advantage in the pack. What the Warriors have is a big, aggressive, mobile, disciplined forward pack and man-for-man they have a major edge in the pack with only Glenn Stewart and Matt Ballin topping their opposite man. The Warriors made great metres against the Storm and can do the same against Manly though it must be said the Sea Eagles pack is bigger and more aggressive.
Manly will, however, throw more points at the Warriors with the three-quarter line much more threatening and the Sea Eagles offering more genuine playmaking options. The two backlines are very evenly matched with Jamie Lyon’s ability to use the ball giving the Sea Eagles the slightest of edges.
A numbers comparison:
– Manly have covered five straight while the Warriors have covered 11 of their last 12 dating back to their round 17 bye
– Manly are 13-7 all-time v New Zealand and have won 10 of the last 13 but in the last 12 Manly have only rolled the Warriors by more than 10 twice.
– Manly are 17-0 in Sydney this year while the Warriors are 3-3 in Sydney and are 13-13 in Australia over the last two seasons.
– The Warriors are 6-1-7 all-time at ANZ while the Eagles are 9-7. Manly have won five of their last six at the venue including the 2008 Grand Final while the Warriors are 2-1 there over the last two years.
– Manly have 10 players who have played in 19 Grand Finals. The Warriors have 3 players who have played in 3 premiership deciders. This will be Joe Galuvao’s third Grand Final for a third team.
I have a lean towards the Warriors here. I think this is a low scoring scrap and I think the Warriors can win the arm wrestle up the middle. If they can get on top early, they can force Manly into panic mode and I really think we could have an upset here, only the second since 2003. Bet 2 units on the Warriors +6.
Early totals on this line are 36.5. I am very keen on the under here. This has scrap written all over it and this should be a real arm wrestle. Bet 2.5 units on the under.
COVER FORM: Manly 17-9 (WWWWW), New Zealand 18-9 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 12-14 (OUUOO), New Zealand 9-18 (OUOUU)
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Tips: New Zealand
2 units on New Zealand +6 at Luxbet at $1.92 (Luxbet)
2 units Under 36.5 (Manly-Warriors) at $1.85 (Sportsbet)
Round Bets Units Bet Units Returned +/-
1 3 1.5 0.95 -0.45
2 6 6 0.92 -5.08
3 7 11 7.38 -3.62
4 8 13 16.51 +3.51
5 10 16 13.15 -2.85
6 8 14.5 19.60 +5.10
7 8 15 11.66 -3.34
8 9 18.5 27.74 +9.24
9 4 6.5 9.64 +3.14
10 7 14 15.29 +1.29
11 5 11 4.78 -6.22
12 9 18 15.38 -2.62
13 7 14.5 13.38 -1.12
14 6 10.5 15.32 +4.82
15 6 11 18.19 +7.19
16 9 16.5 23.89 +7.39
17 7 13 20.13 +7.13
18 10 18.5 12.43 -6.07
19 11 20.5 13.40 -7.10
20 9 16 22.94 +6.94
21 7 13.5 3.84 -9.66
22 10 15 12.27 -2.73
23 8 12.5 16.23 +3.73
24 9 17 17.64 +0.64
25 8 14.5 15.36 +0.86
26 7 10.5 9.50 -1.00
27 3 6.5 2.38 -4.12
28 3 5 3.84 -1.16
29 2 4 3.84 -0.16
Total Bets Units Bet Units Returned +/-
206 364 367.68 +3.68
Tags: 2011, Rugby League