The Early Line: Preliminary Finals Weekend

Filed in The Early Line by on September 18, 2012

Melbourne will go into their preliminary final clash with Manly as a 2.5 to 4 point favourite. The Storm are 7-5 since the 2007 premiership decider against the Sea Eagles, including a 3-2 record in Melbourne (across three grounds). These two met in the 2007 and 2008 Grand Finals (the Storm winning in '07, the Eagles in '08) with the Storm beating Manly in the 2009 qualifying final as well. Melbourne won 26-22 when these two met at Brookvale in round 15, their only meeting this year.  The Storm are 5-2 all-time in preliminary final matches while the Sea Eagles have not lost a prelim since 1975. Manly are 7-1 outside of Sydney this year while the Storm are 28-8 all-time at AAMI Park. Manly are 7-11 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 while the Storm are 24-15 ATS at home, 22-9 ATS as a fave of less than a converted try and 41-27 ATS as a favourite since 2010. The numbers are coming up Melbourne here and with both teams out of nick, that is enough for a 1 unit play on the minus.

We have a 1 unit under play as well, if the line is 35.5 or bigger. Both teams have played in four straight unders, Melbourne are 23-14 under since 2010, Manly are 6-1 under as an interstate dog over the same time and only 4 of the last 13 between these two have tallied more than 36 points.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 15-10 (LLLWW), Manly 14-12 (WWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 12-13 (OUUUU), Manly 12-14 (OUUUU)

Canterbury are favoured by 4.5 to 6 points in their clash with South Sydney at ANZ Stadium. It is Canterbury's first preliminary final since 2009 and Souths' first since 1989. The Bulldogs have won just one of their last four preliminary finals. The Bulldogs have lost to Souths only five times in 27 games going back to 1993 and never twice in the same year. The Rabbitohs beat the Bulldogs in round six this year before the Bulldogs secured a late win in round 13. Both teams call ANZ home: Canterbury have won nine straight at the ground and 10 of 13 this year while the Bunnies are 11-2 at the ground this year. Souths are 27-11 ATS at home since 2010 and are 11-6 ATS as a home dog. It is hard to see Canterbury losing this but games between these two have been tight. A small 0.5-unit bet on the Bulldogs.

There is no total of interest here.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 18-7 (LLLWW), Souths 15-11 (LWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 12-13 (UOUOU), Souths 13-13 (UOUUO)
*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Melbourne, Canterbury

1 unit on Melbourne -2.5 at $1.91 at Bet365
1 unit on Under (Mel-Man) if the line is 35.5 or bigger
0.5 units on Canterbury -4.5 at $1.85 at Sportsbet

Overall:280.5 units bet for 285.62 units returned for a POT of 1.83 %
Line:132 units bet for 139.88 units returned for a POT of 5.97%
Total: 148.5 units bet for 145.74 units returned for a POT of -1.86%



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