The Early Line: R14

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 9, 2011

Betting in the St George-IllawarraGold Coast match ranges from pick 'em to the Dragons being 1 ½ point favourites.

Just look at the Dragons three-quarter line to see why this is clearly a no-bet match. Reece Simmonds hasn't played since 2007, Peni Tagive has played 10 matches in four years, Alex McKinnon is on debut and Matt Prior is a forward.

The Titans, really, should win this but they aren't fair dinkum and if it wasn't for the timely stupidity of Matt Orford and Todd Payten, they would be a one win team.

No bet and for the record, I'll be tipping the Dragons, such is the low regard I hold the Titans in presently.

COVER FORM: St George-Illawarra 8-4 (WWLWL), Gold Coast 3-9 (WLLLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: St George-Illawarra 3-9 (UUUOU),Gold Coast 5-7 (UOUUU)

Manly have been on fire of late and with North Queensland missing co-captains Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott, the Sea Eagles were always going to start favourites but the line of 14 to 15 ½ is somewhat surprising.

Betting opened at 16 ½ but a glut of early money has come for the Cows.

The Cowboys have won 7 of 11 against Manly but with the Sea Eagles' dominant home record this year and no Thurston or Scott for the Cows, again, I can't recommend a play.

COVER FORM: Manly 8-4 (LWWWW), North Queensland 10-2 (WLWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 4-8 (UUUOO), North Queensland 7-5 (UUOUO)

Missing their six best players, Brisbane have opened up pick 'em to 1 ½ point home underdogs in their clash with Canberra on Sunday.

The Raiders are missing Josh Dugan, Terry Campese and Joel Thompson but they really have to win this match.

They did record nice wins over Melbourne and Canterbury and led the Cowboys 22-0 in their last three but the mental shock of last week's choke will hurt. David Shillington's likely return assists.

Bet 1.5 units on Canberra at pick 'em at Sports Alive.

Both teams are missing key playmakers and none of their last four against each other have totalled more than 36. Play 1 unit on the under if the total is 40 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 7-5 (WLLLW), Canberra 3-9 (LLWWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 5-7 (UOUOO), Canberra 7-5 (OUUUO)

New Zealand have opened up 4 to 5 ½ point favourites against the Wests Tigers.

Both of these teams have been hurting punters of late with the Tigers failing to cover in their last four while the Warriors have missed covering in their last two.

Neither team here is missing any players on Origin duty making this the most legitimate match of the round.

The Warriors have really hit a flat spot with their inability to score most concerning. The Tigers haven’t been much better but they can score. The 5 ½ points look the bet. Bet 2 units on the Tigers with 5 ½ start.

No total play.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 6-6 (WWWLL), Wests Tigers 4-8 (WLLLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 3-9 (OOUUU), Wests Tigers 5-7 (OOUOU)

Origin has taken a toll on the MelbourneSydney Roosters clash with the Storm losing three key position players and the Roosters two among a tally of seven players on rep duty.

The Storm are favoured by 1 ½ to 2 points.

The Roosters won this clash last year 38-6 in Melbourne but the Roosters are travelling much worse this year. They have Todd Carney and Braith Anasta but the remainder of the team is brittle at best. Having not scored more than 13 points since round four, there certainly won’t be a blowout.

The key to the match should be the Roosters lack of size in the pack and the hard-running athleticism of Gareth Widdop. If he gets a chance at the Roosters fringe, he is going to have a field day.

Bet 1 ½ units on Melbourne giving 1 ½ points.

The Roosters are the leading under team in the NRL and the Storm are missing most of their spine so with some confidence, play 2 ½ units on the under if the line is 37 or larger.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 8-4 (WWLLW), Sydney Roosters 5-7 (LLWLW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 5-7 (OOUUU), Sydney Roosters 2-10 (UUUUU)

1.5 units on Canberra h2h at Sports Alive at $1.92
1 unit on Under (Brisbane-Canberra) if line is 40 or bigger
2 units on Wests Tigers +5.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
1.5 units on Melbourne -1.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
2.5 units on Under (Melbourne-Roosters) if line is 37 or bigger

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     91       159.5            156.38                         -3.12




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