The Early Line: Round 10

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 9, 2012

In what seems to be the most absurd line of the week, Brisbane will start as an underdog for the first time all year against Manly at home, the Broncos receiving 1.5 to 2 points. Manly have won 6 of 8 against the Broncos including 4 of 5 at Suncorp Stadium and Broncos halfback Peter Wallace is missing but it seems absurd that the Eagles are favoured here. Brisbane have been clearly the second best team all year and they were good enough against a hot Warriors team last year. Brisbane are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 at home and 5-1 ATS since 2010 as a home underdog. Manly are just 1-5 ATS interstate since 2010. Bet the Broncos for 2.5 units.

We are probably looking at a slight under lean here but there is no total play.

Cover Form: Brisbane 6-3 (WLWWL), Manly 4-5 (LWLWL)
Over-Under Form: Brisbane 3-6 (OUUUO), Manly 5-4 (OUOUU)

Canterbury go into their match with the Gold Coast at Suncorp Stadium as an 11.5-point favourite. The Dogs looked good in touching up the Eels and have won 5 of 8 against the Titans while John cartwright's men have lost 7 of 8 and 9 of 10 at Suncorp, losing the last four at the ground by an average of 22 points. But the line is a little big for a team who has struggled to score before opening up against Parramatta. No bet.

The Titans are very much an under team and Canterbury naturally are. I'm not confident but we'll have 0.5 units on the under if the line is 38 or bigger.

Cover Form: Canterbury 6-3 (WLWLW), Gold Coast 3-6 (LLWLW)
Over-Under Form: Canterbury 4-5 (OUUUO), Gold Coast 2-7 (OUOUU)

New Zealand have opened 6.5-point favourites in their clash with the Sydney Roosters. The Warriors have won 8 of 11 against the Roosters and have won 8 of at Mt Smart including their last three by an average of 17 points. The Roosters have been victorious in just 1 of 6 interstate since 2010. The Warriors are 14-9 ATS as a home favourite since 2010. They are a much better team than the Roosters but have been somewhat unreliable. Let's take them for 1.5 units.

The Warriors are riding a hot over run and their defence is expected to be even more suspect with the injury to Nathan Friend but the Roosters don't seem to have a lot of points in them and this is traditionally a low scoring matchup. No bet.

Cover Form: New Zealand 4-5 (LLWLW), Roosters 6-3 (WWLWW)
Over-Under Form: New Zealand 7-2 (UOOOO), Roosters 4-5 (UUOOU)

Newcastle will get 1.5-points at home in their clash with traditionally poor travellers North Queensland. The Knights have won 7 of 12 against the Cowboys and 3 of 4 at Newcastle but without Gidley and Buderus they are too hard to back. With the Cowboys 3-1 ATS on the road this year, I'll have to let this slide.

No total here. Both are under teams but have a history of very high scoring affairs.

Cover Form: Newcastle 4-5 (LWLWL), North Qld 5-4 (WLWLW)
Over-Under Form: Newcastle 2-7 (OUUOU), North Qld 4-5 (UOOUU)

In a bottom of the table clash between Canberra and Parramatta at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders have opened up 6 to 7.5 point favourites. Parramatta are a disgrace this year and are 0-3 ATS on the road and have covered just twice all year. The Raiders are not reliable at home though and no Ben Roberts has Parramatta in a better place. No bet but a lean Canberra.

I'm as keen on the over here as I get on the over. The Eels are 7-2 over this year and leak points like the Titanic. Canberra are 16-9 over in day matches since 2010. These two don't traditionally score high against each other but this looks good for points. Bet the over for 1.5 units if the line is 44 points or lower.

Cover Form: Canberra 4-5 (LWLLW), Parramatta 2-7 (WLLWL)
Over-Under Form: Canberra 4-5 (UOUOU), Parramatta 7-2 (OUOOO)

The two best cover teams in the NRL square off on Sunday with Cronulla getting 9.5 points against the unbeaten Melbourne Storm. Though the Sharks have been good, I've got to ride the red-hot Melbourne Storm. The Sharks have performed but have not run into a lot of quality. The Storm's average winning margin this year is 20 and they are 4-0 ATS on the road. The Storm have won 7 of 8 against the Sharks and 4 of 5 at Shark Park. Bet the minus for 1.5 units.

The over is the bet here. The Storm are playing wide this year and the last three Sharks matches have gone over. Got to play it for 1 unit.

Cover Form: Cronulla 7-2 (WWWWL), Melbourne 8-1 (WWLWW)
Over-Under Form: Cronulla 3-6 (UUOOO), Melbourne 6-3 (OOUOO)

Penrith are receiving 10 to 11.5 points at home in their clash with St George Illawarra. The Dragons have won 7 of 8 against the Panthers but their attack is an issue at present. A lean the Dragons but no side.

Will be playing the under though for 2.5 units. Penrith can't score and the Dragons are great under plays when on the road, going 24-7 under since 2010. Bet the under if the line is 34 or bigger.

Cover Form: Penrith 2-7 (LLLLL), Dragons 4-5 (LLWLL)
Over-Under Form: Penrith 5-4 (UUUOO), Dragons 3-6 (OUUOU)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Brisbane, Canterbury, New Zealand, Newcastle, Canberra, Melbourne, St George Illawarra

Recommended Bets:
2.5 units on Brisbane +2 at Centrebet at $1.90
0.5 units on Under (Bul-GC) if line is 38 or bigger

1.5 units on New Zealand -6.5 at Centrebet at $1.90
1.5 units on Over (Can-Par) if line is 44 or lower
1.5 units on Melbourne -9.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
1 unit on Over (Cro-Mel) if line is 42.5 or lower
2.5 units on Under (Pen-Dra) if line is 34 or bigger

Overall:118 units bet for 127.75 units returned for a POT of 8.23%
Line: 49.5 units bet for 59.17 units returned for a POT of 19.54%
Total: 68.5 units bet for 68.58 units returned for a POT of 0.12%



Comments (1)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Not so absurd now re the start the bronco's have had…? strong choice of words which were found to be quite incorrect.

    Love your columns but you really do go nuts on some teams more than others.