The Early Line: Round 10

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 10, 2011

St George-Illawarra have opened up 5 ½ point favourites against Canterburyin the match of the round. It is tough to go against the Dragons even though betting flare must be tempered by the injury concerns at the club.

Canterbury have been an easy team to figure out this year: they beat the teams they are supposed to and lose to those who are better.

The Dragons have won five straight against Canterbury with the Dogs being held to one try in four of those matches.

Bet 1 ½ units on St George-Illawarra giving 5 ½ points.

These two have averaged 31.2 in their last five, the Dragons are a big under team and matches with two legitimate contenders traditionally go under. Bet 2 ½ units under if line is 35.5 or bigger.

Cover Form: St George-Illawarra 7-2 (LWLWW), Canterbury 5-3 (LLWWL)

Over-Under Form:St George-Illawarra 2-7 (UUUUU), Canterbury 4-4 (OUOOU)

There is no need to get off Brisbane yet as the Broncos head south to take on the mess that are the Penrith Panthers. Giving only 5 ½ points, I’ll have to recommend Brisbane.

The Panthers have been dreadful at home this year, winning against only Canberra while getting comprehensively beaten by Newcastle, Cronulla and Melbourne. The Broncos are coming off a gutsy performance against Melbourne where they were unlucky to lose with a severely under-strength team. Brisbane have won all four matches on the road this year, allowing on average only 9 points per game when away from Lang Park.

Penrith have won only 1 of 7 against Brisbane and were beaten by 8 earlier in the year. They enter this without chief attacking weapon Michael Jennings.

Bet 1 ½ units on Brisbane giving 5 ½ points.

No total points play.

Cover Form:Penrith 4-4 (WWLWL), Brisbane 6-3 (WWWWL)

Over-Under Form: Penrith 4-4 (UOUUO), Brisbane 2-7 (UUOUO) __________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Melbourne Storm have opened 14 ½ point home favourites against the Canberra Raiders and I’m playing the minus with confidence, to the tune of 3 units.

Just look at the numbers:

  • Melbournehave gone 61-9-1 in their last 71 matches at home
  • The Storm have won seven games this year while Canberra have won just a solitary match
  • Canberrahave not covered in their last eight matches
  • The Storm are 16-1 against Canberra dating back to 2002
  • The Raiders have not beaten Melbourne in Melbourne in 11 years
  • The Storm have averaged 30.33 points per game at home this year while Canberra have averaged 13 points per match on the road.

Melbourne should run in a big score in this one with the limp Canberra defence and awful ball-handling likely to handle the Storm a mammoth victory.

Cover Form: Melbourne 7-2 (WWLWW), Canberra 1-8 (LLLLL)

Over-Under Form:Melbourne 5-4 (UUUOO), Canberra 6-3 (OOUOU)

The Wests Tigers have opened up 8 ½ point favourites against an injury ravaged South Sydney team now without Greg Inglis.

If the Tigers pack is anywhere near their strongest, they should maul South Sydney, who are lacking significantly in size. The line is just a touch big here though for a Tigers team who have still got plenty to prove this year.

No side bet.

Punters can look to play the over though. These two have surpassed 45 points in 5 of their last 6 matches and both are coming off back-to-back overs. My only worry that both teams are coming off the bye: in 2010, teams coming off a bye went 22-12 under. Play 1 unit over if the line is 43.5 or lower.

Cover Form:South Sydney 3-5 (WLLLW), Wests Tigers 4-4 (LWLLW)

Over-Under Form: South Sydney 6-2 (OUUOO), Wests Tigers 3-5 (UUUOO)

I doubt there is a game I think less of on the fixture than North Queensland-Parramatta. The Cowboys are 6 point favourites and should win. They have been a good cover team this year. The Eels have won the last five against the Cowboys though and they do get Jarryd Hayne back.

Don’t bet in this match; it may encourage you to watch the match.

Cover Form:North Queensland 7-2 (WWWWL), Parramatta 2-6 (LLLWL)

Over-Under Form: North Queensland 5-4 (UOOUU), Parramatta 4-4 (OUOOU)

New Zealand are the hot team in the NRL at present, covering five of their last six. They meet an honest Newcastle team in Newcastle, the line opening up with the Knights 2 point favourites.

I am sticking with the Warriors, though the loss of Sam Rapira has flagged my unreserved enthusiasm. The Warriors have won 8 of 10 against Newcastle and 4 of 6 against the Knights in Newcastle. The Warriors are 9-6 in Australia since the beginning of 2010.

With Kurt Gidley still missing and the Warriors flying at present, the play has to be New Zealand for 2 units.

No total play.

Cover Form:Newcastle 4-4 (WLLWL), New Zealand 5-4 (WLWWW)

Over-Under Form: Newcastle4-4 (UUOUO), New Zealand 3-6 (UUUOO)

Cronulla have won three of their last five against the Sydney Roosters including both encounters in 2010. With the Roosters in a world of strife, I was keen to get involved with the Sharks but with no Nathan Gardner and Tim Smith at halfback, I have to let this match go through to the keeper. The plus 5 ½ is mighty tempting but no play here. The Sharks are also 0-8 in their last eight day matches.

Cover Form: Cronulla 3-5 (LLWLL), Sydney Roosters 3-5 (WLLLL)

Over-Under Form:Cronulla 6-2 (OUOOO), Sydney Roosters 2-6 (UUUOU)

The Gold Coast Titans have opened up 3 ½ point home underdogs against Manly on Monday Night Football.

Manly are going better and perform well interstate but the Titans have won 3 of 4 against Manly. No play.

I am going to get on board the Manly under gravy train. The Eagles have played five straight under matches and the Titans are hardly big scorers. Bet the under if the line is 38.5 or bigger for 2 ½ units.

Cover Form:Gold Coast 3-6 (LWLWL), Manly 5-4 (WWLLW)

Over-Under Form:Gold Coast 5-4 (UUOUO), Manly 2-7 (UUUUU)

1.5 units on St George-Illawarra -5.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
2.5 units on Under (St George-Illawarra-Canterbury) if line is 35.5 or bigger
1.5 units on Brisbane -5.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
3 units on Melbourne -14.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on Over (Souths-Tigers) if line is 43.5 or smaller
2 units on New Zealand +2 at $1.91 at Centrebet
2.5 units on Under (Gold Coast-Manly) if line is 38.5 or bigger

Also, don’t forget the 2 unit standing bet of the under if the line is above 31.5 and it is raining and/or a heavy track


Round          Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                   0.95                             -0.45
2                   6          6                     0.92                             -5.08
3                   7         11                    7.38                             -3.62
4                   8         13                   16.51                           +3.51
5                  10        16                   13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5                19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                   11.66                           -3.34     
8                   9         18.5                27.74                           +9.24    
9                   4          6.5                 9.64                             +3.14

Total             Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     63       102                 107.55                         +5.55


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