The Early Line: Round 11

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 15, 2012

Wests Tigers have opened up 1.5-point favourites in their clash with New Zealand at Leichhardt Oval on Friday night. Both teams have been difficult to bet on this season. The Warriors have won 10 of 16 against the Tigers including 1 of 2 at Leicchardt but there is no play in this one.

Total would suggest under with the Tigers off a bye and very much an under team but the Warriors are 8-2 over and these two have gone over 42 in 7 of their last 9. No bet.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 3-6 (WWWLL), New Zealand 4-6 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 4-5 (UUUOU), New Zealand 8-2 (OOOOO)

North Queensland will jump 3.5 to 4.5 point favourites in their clash with Penrith. The Panthers have won 10 of 16 including 3 of 5 at Townsville and come out ahead in the Origin losses, losing just Luke Lewis (and, I guess, Michael Jennings) while the Cowboys lose Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott and Brent Tate. The Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a home favourite but I think Penrith can get them here. No wager.

When these two have played, the tendency has been to go over with the tally topping 48 in 5 of the last 7. That is worth a small 0.5 unit over play if the line comes up at 44 or smaller.

COVER FORM: North Qld 6-4 (LWLWW), Penrith 3-7 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: North Qld 5-5 (OOUUO), Penrith 5-5 (UUOOU)

Manly are 4.5 to 5.5 point favourites in their clash with the Sydney Roosters at Brookvale Oval. Manly have owned the Chooks in recent times, winning 10 of the last 12 including last year's matches by 28 and 11 points. The Sea Eagles are 18-13 ATS at home since 2010 and are 13-7 ATS during the day. With Pearce missing for the Roosters, we will have 1 unit on Manly. 

There is a small lean the under but not enough to bet. No play.

COVER FORM: Manly 5-5 (WLWLW), Roosters 7-3 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 6-4 (UOUUO), Roosters 5-5 (UOOUO)

St George Illawarra and South Sydney has opened pick 'em with the Dragons coming off a horrid performance against Penrith and the Bunnies off the bye. The Dragons are 14-4 all-time against Souths but the Bunnies have won 3 of the last 7. The Dragons are 20-11 ATS at home since 2010 and the Bunnies are without Greg Inglis and Dave Taylor, their two sparks. A lean the Dragons but no bet.

The numbers actually suggest an over here but teams off a bye tend to play under. With contrasting views, I can't recommend a play.

COVER FORM: Dragons 4-6 (LWLLL), Souths 4-5 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 3-7 (UUOUU), Souths 4-5 (UUOUO)

Canterbury are surprise 6 to 6.5 point favourites against giant-killers Cronulla. We will be having a good crack on the Sharks here, who have covered 8 of 10 times this year. They will be without Paul Gallen and Todd Carney but showed they can get it done without Gallen last Sunday and Jeff Robson contributed just as much, if not more, against the Storm. The Bulldogs have won 13 of 17 against the Sharks but look up against it with a tough Cronulla team in front of them. Play them for 2 units.

The under is the bet here. Both teams are without their primary playmaker and both have been under teams this year. The last four have also totalled less than 36. Play the under for 2 units if the total is bigger than 34.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 6-4 (LWLWL), Cronulla 8-2 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 4-6 (UUUOU), Cronulla 3-7 (UOOOU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:New Zealand, Penrith, Manly, St George Illawarra, Cronulla

0.5 units Over (Cow-Pen) if the total is 44 or under
1 unit on Manly -4.5 at $1.90 at IAS Bet
2 units on Cronulla +6.5 at $1.90 at IAS BET
2 units on Under (Bul-Cro) of the total is 34 or bigger

Overall: 129 units bet for 138.8 units returned for a POT of 7.60%
Line: 55 units bet for 61.67 units returned for a POT of 12.13%
Total: 74 units bet for 77.13 units returned for a POT of 4.23%



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