The Early Line: Round 11

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 17, 2011

Canterbury travel to Canberra spotting 5 ½ points in what looks like an outstanding bet to open the weekend with. Canterbury have won 8 of 12 against Canberra including 3 of the last 4 at Canberra Stadium.

The Bulldogs this season have only lost to the top three teams and have covered every other match. Canberra, meanwhile, struggle without Josh Dugan, winning 50% of the time when he plays and only 41.4% without him over the last three years.

Bet 2 ½ units on Canterbury -5 ½ points.

No total play as Canberra’s scoring is too volatile at home.

Cover Form:Canberra 2-8 (LLLLW), Canterbury 6-3 (LWWLW)
Over-Under Form: Canberra 6-4 (OUOUU), Canterbury 4-5 (UOOUU)

The Penrith Panthers have a 14-5 all-time record against the Wests Tigers and are every chance of rolling an overrated Tigers outfit hamstrung by injury and poor play.

The 9 ½ start is particularly enticing and will be a 2 ½ unit play.

The Tigers have beaten nobody this year (Canberra twice, South Sydney and New Zealand at home in round two) while the Panthers looked outstanding with Luke Lewis back in the team.

I don’t like the look of Penrith without Michael Gordon but the line is simply way too big against a team who is going no good at all.

Both teams are rolling on over streaks but I am unconvinced that this game will go above the line. No total play.

Cover Form: Wests Tigers 4-5 (WLLWL), Penrith 5-4 (WLWLW)
Over-Under Form: Wests Tigers 4-5 (UUOOO), Penrith 5-4 (OUUOO)

New Zealanddidn’t lose to South Sydney between 1999 and 2007 but have lost 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two teams including two of three at Mt Smart.

I am not confident but I think the Warriors pack completely dominates the small South Sydney pack. Going against recent history here. Play the Warriors -7.5 for 1 unit.

Eight of the last 11 between these two have totalled 50 points and Souths are a 7-2 over team. Play 1 unit on the over if the line is 44.5 or less.

Cover Form:New Zealand 6-4 (LWWWW), South Sydney 4-5 (LLLWW)
Over-Under Form: New Zealand 3-7 (UUOOU), South Sydney 7-2 (UUOOO)

The Sydney Roosters have been decimated by injury and do not appear to match up well with Newcastle. They are certainly playing a horrible, disjointed brand of rugby league that has seen them run together a large string of losses. Newcastle have been in plenty of games recently but they are not doing a lot of covering themselves.

The Roosters, strangely enough, have not rolled Newcastle outside of Newcastle in five matches and six years.

Beau Henry returning for Newcastle helps as does the class of Chris Houston in the pack. We will speculate on Newcastle for 2 units with 1 ½ start. I find it hard to believe the Roosters are deserved favourites.

No total play.

Cover Form:Sydney Roosters 3-6 (LLLLL), Newcastle 4-5 (LLWLL)
Over-Under Form: Sydney Roosters 2-7 (UUOUU), Newcastle 4-5 (UOUOU)

Cronulla have won 5 of 6 against Parramatta but are missing four of their best five players while Nathan Hindmarsh and Jarryd Hayne are in for the Eels. I cannot back Parramatta after their remarkable non-cover but have no confidence in the Sharks this week.

Both of these are technically over teams this year but have a history of low scoring games, their last five averaging 26.8. Bet 3 units under if line is 36 or bigger.

Cover Form:Parramatta 2-7 (LLWLL), Cronulla 4-6 (LWLLW)
Over-Under Form: Parramatta 5-4 (UOOUO), Cronulla 6-3 (UOOOU)

2.5 units on Canterbury -5.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
2.5 units on Penrith +9.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on New Zealand -7.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on Over (New Zealand-South Sydney) if line is 44.5 or less
2 units on Newcastle +1.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
3 units on Under (Parramatta-Cronulla) if line is 36 or bigger

Also, don’t forget the 2 unit standing bet of the under if the line is above 31.5 and it is raining and/or a heavy track


Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                   0.95                             -0.45
2                   6          6                     0.92                             -5.08
3                   7         11                   7.38                             -3.62
4                   8         13                   16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                   13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                  11.66                           -3.34     
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24    
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                             +3.14
10               7         14                  15.29                          +1.29

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     70       116               122.84                       +6.84

Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images AsiaPac


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