The Early Line: Round 12

Filed in The Early Line by on May 26, 2011

Betting here has Manly 5 ½ to 6 point favourites over Brisbane though the match is at Suncorp.

Sides are up in the air at present with Anthony Griffin insisting Darren Lockyer, Sam Thaiday and Ben Hannant won't play. They all could turn up though. We'll have to wait for teams in this one before betting.

Both teams are rock solid in defence and with the possibility of key playmakers missing, this could be a real dour struggle. Play 2 units on the under if the line is 38 or above.

COVER FORM: Manly 6-4 (WLLWW), Brisbane 6-4 (WWWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 2-8 (UUUUU), Brisbane 3-7 (UOUOU)

Canterbury have opened 4 ½ to 6 point favourites over the Gold Coast in the second match of the double-header from Suncorp.

The Bulldogs are surely set to hit back here, despite the fact the Titans have won three of their last four against Canterbury. The Bulldogs turned in their first awful effort of the year last Friday and if they are the real deal, must give the Titans a hiding.

Canterbury should be able to win this in the three-quarter line. The Titans defence on the fringes is vulnerable at best and the likes of Josh Morris and Ben Barba should have a field day.

Bet 1 ½ units on Canterbury -4 ½.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 6-4 (WWLWL), Gold Coast 3-7 (WLWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 4-6 (OOUUU), Gold Coast 5-5 (UOUOU)

Newcastle have come up between 2 ½ and 3 ½ point favourites in their clash with Parramatta on Saturday night.

I can't and won't tip Parramatta given their record over the last two seasons of not covering and their failure to win consecutive games since July last year. Newcastle, though, have not made the number in four of their last five.

No bet. No total.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 4-6 (LWLLL), Parramatta 3-7 (LWLLW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 4-6 (OUOUU), Parramatta 6-4 (OOUOO)

Betting has come up with North Queensland favoured by 4 ½ to 5 ½ points at home against the Sydney Roosters.

The Cowboys have been the team to bet this year, covering the mark 80% of the time, including in impressive fashion last start when coming from 16 points down to cover 7 ½ points.

The Roosters have not scored more than 13 points in their last six outings and are really struggling with their attack while it is interesting to note that Johnathan Thurston has not lost to Mitchell Pearce in six outings.

I really think the Cowboys will lift in memory of Sam Faust and that could lead to a big win over the struggling Roosters. Bet 2.5 units on the Cowboys giving 4 ½ points.

The Roosters are 8-2 under this year and there is little wrong with their defence so I will recommend an under play but be cautious as North Queensland games skew high at home. Play 1 unit on the under if the line is 42.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: North Queensland 8-2 (WWWLW), Sydney Roosters 4-6 (LLLLW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: North Queensland 6-4 (OOUUO), S.Roosters 2-8 (UOUUU)

Punters can lay between 12 ½ and 14 points on Melbourne in their home clash with Cronulla this Sunday afternoon.

The interesting note here is the timing: Cronulla have lost eight straight day matches, and have covered only once, while the Storm have won their last four day matches at AAMI Park by an average margin of 30.

The Storm have won 6 of 7 against Cronulla and should absolutely thump them on Sunday, particularly with Kade Snowden a questionable backup after appearing to damage his shoulder in Origin I. Bet Melbourne -12 ½ for 3 units.

The Sharks are 6-0 over away from Shark Park this year while Melbourne can run in scores at home. Bet 2 units over if line is 44 or lower.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 7-3 (WLWWL), Cronulla 4-6 (WLLWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 5-5 (UUOOU), Cronulla 7-3 (OOOUO)

St George-Illawarra meet the Wests Tigers in a replay of the second preliminary final from 2010 on Sunday afternoon with the Dragons opening 6 point favourites.

The Dragons have not lost to the Tigers since Wayne Bennett took over, not allowing the Tigers more than 12 points in any affair. The Tigers lost by a single point in that preliminary final but it is hard to envisage them getting that close in their current horrid form.

The Dragons should be too good. Bet 2 units giving 6 points.

Both of these teams are under teams and nothing should change on Sunday afternoon with Dragons games always going under. Bet 2 units on the under if the line is 37 or bigger.

COVER FORM: St George-Illawarra 7-3 (WLWWL), Wests Tigers 4-6 (LLWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: St George-Illawarra 2-8 (UUUUU), W.Tigers 4-6 (UOOOU)

Penrith have opened between 4 and 5.5 point favourites in their Monday night clash with South Sydney.

Penrith have won the last seven between these two at Penrith Park but Souths have been strong defensively of late. This is a no bet match.

No total here either. A slight lean over.

COVER FORM: Penrith 6-4 (LWLWW), South Sydney 5-5 (LLWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 5-5 (UUOOU), South Sydney 7-3 (UOOOU)

2 units on Under (Manly-Brisbane) if line is 38 or bigger
1.5 units on Canterbury -4.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
2.5 units on North Queensland -4.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Cowboys-Roosters) if line is 42.5 or bigger
3 units on Melbourne -12.5 at Centrebet, Sportingbet at $1.91
2 units on Over (Storm-Sharks) if line is 44 or smaller
2 units on St George-Illawarra -6 at most at $1.91
2 units on Under (Dragons-Tigers) if line is 37 or bigger


Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34     
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24    
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     75       127               127.62                               +0.62

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