The Early Line: Round 13

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 30, 2012

Gold Coast have opened 2.5 to 3.5 point home outsiders in their clash with North Queensland. The Titans are 5-5 all-time against the Cowboys and toweled them up in the opening weekend of the season. Home underdogs have not been great this year (17-22 ATS) but have gone 89-76 ATS since 2010. The Cowboys are 12-19 ATS on the road over the same time. Their 11-5 ATS record as a favourite of under 6 points is a worry but we are going to play the rejuvenated Titans for 1 unit.

There has been a score of 48 or more in 4 of the last 6 between these two but the Titans are 11-4 under as a home underdog. Bet the under for 1 unit if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Gold Coast 5-6 (WLWWW), North Qld 6-6 (LWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 2-9 (OUUUU), North Qld 7-5 (UUOOO)

Manly will go around 6-point favourites in their match with St George Illawarra at Brookvale Oval. The Dragons have a 14-5 all-time record against the Eagles but are struggling on the road, losing five straight when travelling. The Eagles are also 19-13 ATS at home since 2010. Let this one go with a lean Manly.

This is a 3 unit under play. The last three and four of the last five have not broken 30, the Dragons are 9-3 under this year, 3 of 4 at Brookvale this year have gone 30 or under and the Dragons are 25-7 under on the road and 29-13 under at night since 2010. Just bet the under, even if the line is 32.

COVER FORM:Manly 6-6 (WLWWL), Dragons 4-8 (LLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 6-6 (UUOUU), Dragons 3-9 (OUUUU)

Canberra are 5.5 to 6 point home underdogs against a Wests Tigers team that has won five straight. The Raiders are 10-20 ATS at home with no other situations presenting themselves. Their team selection has been dreadful. The Tigers aren't winning big though. No play, lean the Tigers.

We have seen 5 of 6 between these two surpass 46 so a lean the over but who knows with the Raiders new backline.  No play.

COVER FORM:Canberra 4-7 (LLWLL), Tigers 5-6 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 6-5 (UOUOO), Tigers 6-5 (UOUOU)

Canterbury and South Sydney square off in the match of the round on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium with bookies putting up pick 'em to giving the Dogs 1-point. The Bulldogs have won 26 of 32 against Souths but the Bunnies got the points on Good Friday. Definite lean on South Sydney here. They have too much strikepower and can control the middle of the field with Issac Luke. Take the Bunnies for 1 unit.

There is no total to play in this.

COVER FORM:Canterbury 8-4 (LWLWW), Souths 6-5 (LWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 5-7 (UOUUO), Souths 5-6 (OUOUO)

Brisbane are massive favourites against Newcastle, bookies tossing up a line of 12.5 to 13.5 points. The Broncos have lost three straight but have claimed 10 of 14 against the Knights. Wayne Bennett is 2-8 against his old teams since leaving the Broncos. Brisbane are 19-12 ATS at home since 2010 but this is a huge line, big enough to take a risk on the plus and hope Jarrod Mullen is out. Bet the Knights for 1 unit.

These two have not tallied over 34 in the last three and the Knights are 18-10 under on the road the last three seasons and 8-3 under this year. Bet under for 1 unit if the line is 36..5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Brisbane 6-5 (WWLLL), Newcastle 4-7 (LWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 5-6 (UUOOO), Newcastle 3-8 (UOUOU)

New Zealand get 3.5 to 4 points against rivals Melbourne at Mt Smart Stadium. The Storm are 9-2 ATS this year while the Warriors are a poor 4-7 ATS. I am just going to continue riding the Storm. The Warriors have had two weeks to prepare but I don't believe this Brian McClennan Warriors lot have it over the Storm. Play them for 1 unit.

Indications from this year suggest an over but we will take the under here with the last five between these two at Mt Smart averaging 18.6 with no game going over 30. Play the under for 1 unit if the line is 34 or bigger.

COVER FORM:New Zealand 4-7 (WLWLL), Melbourne 9-2 (LWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 9-2 (OOOOO), Melbourne 7-4 (UOOUO)

Parramatta, having covered 3 out of the last 4, get 5..5 points against Cronulla. The Eels are 9-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2010 and Cronulla have won 6 of the last 8 between the two. Probably a small lean Cronulla but no wager.

There are a few things pointing to the under here – Cronulla off a bye, Parramatta tightening up their defence – but not quite a wager.

COVER FORM:Parramatta 4-7 (LWLWW), Cronulla 8-3 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 8-3 (OOOOU), Cronulla 3-8 (OOOUU)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Gold Coast, Manly, Wests Tigers, South Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Cronulla

1 unit on Gold Coast +3.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (GC-NQ) if the line is 38 or bigger
3 units on Under (Man-Dra) if the line is 32 or bigger
1 unit on South Sydney at Centrebet at $1.90
1 unit on Newcastle +13.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Bri-New) if the line is 36.5 or bigger
1 unit on Melbourne -3.5 at Luxbet at $1.85
1 unit on Under (NZ-Mel) if the line is 34 or bigger

Overall:142 units bet for 152.27 units returned at a POT of 7.23%
Line:61.5 units bet for 66.62 units returned at a POT of 8.33%
Total: 80.5 units bet for 85.65 units returned at a POT of 6.40%



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