The Early Line: Round 14

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 5, 2012

The Melbourne Storm, missing their three best players in Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, get 6 points at home to a Wests Tigers outfit who have lost just Robbie Farah to Origin duty. The Tigers have won six on the trot, covering their last three, while the Storm have been the best cover team all year. These two have split their last six but Melbourne have won all nine clashes in Melbourne, including the only clash since 2007 (2009, a 14-12 win). The indicators have a lean on Melbourne here but this game is just too hard without all the key position types. No bet, lean Tigers.

No total here. The thinking is all the playmakers out makes this an under game but both teams have been over sides.

COVER FORM:Melbourne 10-2 (WWLWW), Wests Tigers 6-6 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 7-5 (OOUOU), Wests Tigers 7-5 (OUOUO)

Newcastle are favoured by 4.5 to 6 points in their clash with Canberra on Saturday night. The Knights will play without Akuila Uate and Darius Boyd while David Shillington will be on Origin duty for the Raiders. Both teams are really struggling but it is apparent that the Raiders have totally thrown the towel in and with coach David Furner sticking with the Dugan-to-pivot experiment, there seems little hope for Canberra. The Knights have won 7 of 11 against the Raiders and Canberra haven't won in Newcastle since 2005. I expect Newcastle to bounce back strongly but they are 3-8 ATS when favoured by 6 or less since 2010, which tempers my enthusiasm. Almost Newcastle, almost. But no bet.

No total situations have presented themselves.

COVER FORM:Newcastle 4-8 (WLLLL), Canberra 4-8 (LWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 4-8 (OUOUO), Canberra 7-5 (OUOOO)

Cronulla will jump 2.5-point favourites in their clash with the Gold Coast on Sunday afternoon. The Sharks will play without Paul Gallen and Todd Carney because of Origin while the Titans have no Ashley Harrison and Greg Bird with Luke Bailey also out hurt. The Titans have covered four straight and look a top bet here. They are 13-8 ATS interstate since 2010 and Cronulla have lost all momentum since their Storm win. Bet the Titans for 2 units.

This also looks a nice under game. Both teams are a combined 17-7 under this year and the Sharks are 20-9 under at home since 2010. Play 1 unit under if the line is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 8-4 (WLWLL), Gold Coast 6-6 (LWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 4-8 (OOUUO), Gold Coast 3-9 (UUUUO)

The Sydney Roosters are 2.5-point faves in their clash with Brisbane at the SFS on Sunday afternoon. Mitchell Pearce is on Origin duty for the Roosters while Brisbane have lost five of their best players. The Broncos have won 9 of 12 against the Chooks including 8 of 9 at the SFS. The Broncos are 18-13 on the road and they still have the talent to roll the Roosters. They are worth a 0.5-unit bet at

There is no interest in the totals here.

COVER FORM: Roosters 7-5 (WWWLL), Brisbane 7-5 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 6-6 (OUOUO), Brisbane 6-6 (UOOOO)

Penrith will get 6 points at home in their clash with New Zealand. The Panthers have lost Michael Jennings and Tim Grant to Origin while the Kiwis are all clear. Penrith have won just 3 of 12 against the Warriors and have lost three straight including two at Penrith. The Panthers have been poor at home this year while the Warriors have been dreadful on the road, covering just 1 of 5. No bet.

There is no total here either.

COVER FORM:Penrith 5-7 (LLWWW), New Zealand 4-8 (LWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 6-6 (OOUOU), New Zealand 9-3 (OOOOU)
*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips: Wests Tigers, Newcastle, Gold Coast, Brisbane, New Zealand

2 units on Gold Coast +2.5 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (GC-Cro) if the line is 36 or bigger
0.5 unit on Brisbane +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.90

Overall: 157 units bet for 163.63 units returned at a POT of 4.22%
Line:65.5 units bet for 70.38 units returned at a POT of 7.45%
Total:91.5 units bet for 93.25 units returned at a POT of 1.91%



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