The Early Line: Round 15

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 13, 2012

St George Illawarra have opened up 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites in their clash with Canterbury in Wollongong. The Dragons had won six on end against the Bulldogs before Canterbury toweled them 30-4 at ANZ earlier in the year. The Dragons aren't as dominant at Wollongong as they are at Kogarah, going just 3-4 in their last seven.  The Bulldogs are 4-2 this year away from ANZ. There are no situations here though common sense suggests the Dogs are the bet if forced to play.

This is a 2 unit under play. The Dragons are 10-3 under this year, the Dragons are 30-13 under at night over the last three seasons and the Bulldogs are 28-18 under at night back to 2010. No total between these two in the last 7 has tallied more than 34. Bet the under for 2 units if the line is 32.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Dragons 4-9 (LLLLL), Canterbury 9-4 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 3-10 (UUUUU), Canterbury 6-7 (OUUOO)

North Queensland are favoured by 1 point in their derby with Brisbane. The Broncos will go around without most of their Origin stars. The Broncos are 19-13 ATS on the road since 2010 while the Cowboys are 17-13 ATS at home over the same period. The Cowboys have won 2 of the last 3 against Brisbane but have not downed the Broncos in Townsville since 2006. No bet though the Broncos shouldn't be underestimated with their young lineup.

Both teams are riding big over runs (five for Brisbane, four for the Cowboys) and 4 of the last 5 between these two have tallied 50. Bet 1 unit on the over if the line is 44 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 6-7 (WWLLL), Brisbane 8-5 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 8-6 (UOOOO), Brisbane 7-6 (OOOOO)

Cronulla get 2.5 to 3.5 points at home against New Zealand. Very keen on the Sharks here. The Sharks have been a very good cover team this year and have won and covered five straight at Shark Park while the Warriors have been a poor 2-5 away from Mt Smart this year. The Warriors have gone back-to-back this year only once and are backing up off a five-day break. Bet the Sharks for 1 unit.

The Sharks are 20-10 under at home since 2010 but the Warriors are 10-3 over this year. No total. 

COVER FORM:Cronulla 9-4 (LWLLW), New Zealand 5-8 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 5-8 (OUUOO), New Zealand 10-3 (OOOUO)

Parramatta get 4.5 points against South Sydney in their clash at ANZ Stadium. The Bunnies have won three straight against the Eels by an average margin of 24 points with the Eels winning just 3 of the last 12 matches against the Rabbitohs. The Eels have been in good cover form of late but the Bunnies are 20-11 ATS at home since 2010 and match-up wise Issac Luke will be a nightmare for the Eels. Bet Souths for 1.5 units.

There is a small lean the over here but no play.

COVER FORM:Parramatta 5-7 (WLWWW), Souths 6-6 (WWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 9-3 (OOOUO), Souths 6-6 (UOUOO)

Gold Coast and Penrith play on Sunday afternoon in a match that holds very little interest with the Titans opening 4 to 4.5 point favourites. The Panthers have a 3-2 edge in this. There is absolutely no bet.

I can't get worked up about a total in this one either.

COVER FORM:Gold Coast 6-7 (WWWWL), Penrith 5-8 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 4-9 (UUUOO), Penrith 7-6 (OUOUO)

The Wests Tigers will go out 8 point favourites in their match with the Sydney Roosters. The Wests Tigers own Leichhardt Oval. They have won 10 of 11 at the venue since 2009 with their only loss coming against Melbourne.. The Chooks have lost 6 of 7 and have won just 4 of their last 20 away from Allianz Stadium. The Roosters have taken the points in 4 of the last 5 against the Tigers. A lean to the Tigers here but they aren't winning by enough for me to want to lay 8 points.  

There is a 0.5 unit under play here. The Tigers are 21-12 under at home since 2010 while the Roosters are 22-10 under on the road over the same time. Play the under for 1 unit if the total is 39.5.

COVER FORM:Tigers 6-7 (LWWWL), Roosters 7-6 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Tigers 7-6 (UOUOU), Roosters 7-6 (UOUOO)

All betting is down for the Manly-Melbourne clash on Monday night with a number of key players backing up from Origin. Manly have won 5 of 8 against the Storm including the last two and are 20-13 ATS at home but the Storm are an incredible 11-2 ATS this year. No play.

A big lean the under but the Storm have burned me too often this year by scoring. No play.

COVER FORM:Manly 7-6 (LWWLW), Melbourne 11-2 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 7-6 (UOUUU), Melbourne 7-6 (OUOUU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Canterbury, Brisbane, Cronulla, South Sydney, Gold Coast, Wests Tigers, Melbourne

2 units on Under (Dra-Bul) if the line is 32.5 or bigger
1 unit on Over (Cow-Bri) if the line is 44 or smaller
1 unit on Cronulla +3.5 at Sportingbet at $1.90
1.5 units on South Sydney -4.5 at Sportingbet at $1.90
0.5 units on Under (Tig-Roo) if line is 39.5 or bigger

Overall: 167.5 units bet for 168.38 units returned at a POT of 0.53%
Line:68 units bet for 71.33 units returned at a POT of 4.90%
Total: 99.5 units bet for 97.05 units returned at a POT of -1.46%



Comments (1)

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  1. SemiiPro says:

    Hey Nick. Can you confirm that Luxbet et al make all their profits on NRL betting during Origin time? Because you, like me, are having a hard time making money trying to win during this time of byes, injuries and general inconsistencies.

    I have vowed not to bet again until a fortnight after Origin 3. It is that hard at the moment.