The Early Line: Round 16

Filed in The Early Line by on June 21, 2012

Brisbane are favoured by 6 to 6.5 points against South Sydney, betting indicating the Bunnies will play without injured fullback Greg Inglis. The Bunnies have won just 3 of 24 against the Broncos though those three wins have come in the last eight matches. The Broncos are 13-2 at Suncorp while the Bunnies have won just 4 of their last 15 interstate. The Broncos are 20-12 ATS at home since 2010 and 25-15 ATS as a fave over that time and I like the Broncos in this one but the line seems a little big if anything. No bet.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 8-6 (LLWWL), Souths 7-6 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 7-7 (OOOOU), Souths 6-7 (OUOOU)

St George Illawarra are spotting 4 to 5.5 points to the Gold Coast despite the Dragons winning just 1 of their last 6 and the Titans collecting the points in 4 of 5. The Dragons are 6-3 all-time against the Titans but John Cartwright's team has won the last two St George Illawarra home games. The Dragons have won only 3 of 8 at Win Stadium. The Titans are 13-11 ATS interstate. The Saints played themselves into form last week but I can't lay points on a team that hasn't covered in months. No bet.

There is a 1 unit under play here. The Dragons are 45-22 under since 2010 and 30-14 under at night. The Titans have played three overs straight but are an under team. Try if the line is 36.5 or bigger.  

COVER FORM: Dragons 4-10 (LLLLL), Gold Coast 7-7 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 4-10 (UUUUO), Gold Coast 5-9 (UUOOO)

North Queensland are 10 to 10.5 point favourites against Canberra. The Cowboys have won 8 of 11 against the Raiders including three straight by an average margin of 13.33. The Raiders are 2-11 in Queensland since 2008. The Cowboys are 13-7 ATS as a home favourite since 2010 while the Raiders are 3-9 ATS interstate over that time. It is a big line but 2 units on the minus seems the bet.

The Raiders are 8-1 under when travelling interstate. We will try the under for 0.5 units if the line is 40.

COVER FORM:Cowboys 7-7 (WLLLW), Canberra 5-8 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 8-6 (OOOOU), Canberra 8-5 (UOOOO)

In the battle of the wooden spoon, Penrith are favoured by 2.5 points against Parramatta. The Panthers have won 5 of 7 against the Eels including the last three by an average of 16. Parramatta have won 3 of the last 5 at Centrebet Stadium. I think the Eels are nearing a win but I won't be going anywhere near this game.

No total but a lean the over.

COVER FORM: Penrith 5-9 (WWWLL), Parramatta 5-8 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 8-6 (UOUOO), Parramatta 9-4 (OOUOU)

Canterbury are getting 2 to 2.5 points in their top-of-the-table clash with Melbourne in Mackay. The Storm have won 9 of 11 though the Bulldogs have won 2 of the last 3 neutral venue matches. The Storm have won 32 of their last 40 including a 15-4 road record. The Bulldogs are 3-6 on their last nine interstate games. The Bulldogs are 6-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 while the Storm are 27-19 ATS as a favourite and 13-6 ATS during the day over the same time. The Bulldogs can push the Storm but the 2 points looks just a little thin. Bet Melbourne for 1 unit.  

The total here is way too hard to figure here. Numbers suggest under but both are playing expansive football.

COVER FORM:Canterbury 10-4 (LWWWW), Melbourne 12-2 (LWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 7-7 (UUOOO), Melbourne 8-6 (UOUUO)

The Sydney Roosters are getting 4.5 points start against bogey team Manly. The Sea Eagles have won 11 of 13 against the Roosters including the last three by an average of 15.67. The Roosters have won 3 of 7 at the SFS while the Eagles are 9-7 dating back to their readmission to the NRL. The Sea Eagles are 14-8 ATS in day matches since 2010 but the Chooks were unlucky at Brookvale only five weeks back. The injury to Glenn Stewart also hurts the Eagles plenty. An upset is brewing. Bet the Roosters for 1 unit.

The Roosters are 17-11 under during the day but there is not enough for a bet.

COVER FORM:Roosters 8-6 (WLLLW), Manly 7-7 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 8-6 (OUOOO), Manly 8-6 (OUUUO)

Newcastle are getting 5.5 points at home against the Wests Tigers and are some hope. The Wests Tigers are 9-7 all-time against the Newcastle Knights and have won four straight and the last four in Newcastle, the Knights not getting within 12 at Hunter Stadium since 2004. The Knights should be steeled off the bye and the Tigers have been distracted by the sad death of Robbie Farah's mum. Bet the Knights for 1 unit.

The Knights are 5-1 under off a bye. Bet the under for 1 unit if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Newcastle 4-9 (LLLLL), Tigers 6-8 (WWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 5-8 (UOUOO), Tigers 8-6 (OUOUO)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Brisbane, St George Illawarra, North Queensland, Parramatta, Melbourne, Sydney Roosters, Newcastle

1 unit on Under (Dra-Tit) if the line is 36.5 or bigger
2 units on North Queensland -10 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Cow-Rai) of the line is 40 or bigger
1 unit on Melbourne -2 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Sydney Roosters +4.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
1 unit on Newcastle +5.5 at Tabcorp at $1.90
1 unit on Under (New-Tig) if the total is 36.5 or bigger

Overall:177.5 units bet for 176.93 units returned at a POT of -0.03%
Line: 70.5 units bet for 76.08 units returned at a POT of 7.91%
Total:107 units bet for 100.85 units returned at a POT of -5.75%



Comments (1)

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  1. SemiiPro says:

    I’m with you on the NQ bet, but can’t follow your devotion to Newcastle. That Caberra v Newcastle game was of the lowest possible standard the NRL can provide. Two awful teams. As I’ve said since the start of the year, Newcastle will be Bennett’s Waterloo and I expect his forces will again surrender meekly.

    Having said that, the Tigers when down 30 to the Roosters could easily have been ranked the third worst team in the comp ( behind New and Can) at that time, so I’m staying away from that game.