The Early Line: Round 16

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 24, 2011

The Wests TigersCanterbury clash has red flags all over it. The line has opened as Tigers 2.5 to 4 point home underdogs, a bit of a surprise even without Benji, though they have won only two of their last seven when he hasn’t played.

Canterbury are going just awful though. They have lost five of six and can't be backed and certainly can't be bet laying points.

There looks like there could be a small under play here. The last three between the Dogs and Tigers have totalled 38 or less, both teams are struggling to score points and the Tigers have lost their top playmaker. Bet 1 unit if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 5-9 (LLLWL), Canterbury 7-6 (WLWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 6-8 (UOUOU), Canterbury 5-8 (UUUOU)

Brisbane have opened up 4.5 to 6 point favourites in their clash with South Sydney in Perth.

Souths have only rolled Brisbane twice since winning the minor premiership in 1989 and the Broncos have been in good nick. I'm happy to lay the 4.5 points for 1 unit.

My lean is an under here but Souths are capable of letting in big scores so no total play despite their four straight unders.

COVER FORM: South Sydney 6-7 (WWLLW), Brisbane 9-5 (LLWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 7-6 (OUUUU), Brisbane 6-8 (UOOOU)

What a dire game. I can't imagine anyone would willingly want to watch this.

The hapless Gold Coast have opened up 2 points faves against Cronulla. I really think the class of Paul Gallen can lift the Sharks up here but every match these two have played has gone the way of the home team and the Sharks are 1-10 interstate over the last three years. No bet.

A lean under but no confidence, so no play.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 4-10 (LLLWL), Cronulla 6-7 (WLWLW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 6-8 (UUUOU), Cronulla 8-5 (UOUOU)

It would take a game man to bet Canberra, who have covered only three times this year, even at home against an ordinary Parramatta team.

The Eels have hit a purple patch though, at least from a betting point of view, covering in their last four and are a bet with the 4 points start.

Parra have won four of six against the Raiders and they gave Manly a scare on Monday night. Bet 2 units on the Eels with 4 start.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Canberra 3-10 (LWLLL), Parramatta 6-7 (LWWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 8-5 (UUOOO), Parramatta 7-6 (OOUUO)

New Zealand host a team they have had the wood on in Melbourne, and are 1 to 1.5 point outsiders.

The Storm have won only two of their last seven against the Warriors and I'm concerned the Warriors forward pack could beat the Storm to a pulp but Melbourne have been good to punters this year while the Warriors are on a four-game non-cover slide.

There is a big play on the under here though. These two have combined for 19-9 under record this year with the Storm going under in their last five and the Warriors their last three. These two have broken 40 only once in their last seven.

Bet 3 units under if the line is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 6-8 (WLLLL), Melbourne 10-4 (LLWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 4-10 (UOUUU), Melbourne 5-9 (UUUUU)

Penrith have only won five matches all season yet have covered nine times. This week they come up against the top cover team in the NRL, North Queensland, with the Panthers opening 2 to 2.5 point favourites.

Now that Johnathan Thurston has been let off, I have to take the Cowboys with the small start. The Panthers are an ordinary 3-3 at home while the Cowboys are 2-3 interstate. A small 1 unit play on North Queensland with 2.5 start.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Penrith 9-4 (WWWWW), North Queensland 11-3 (WWWLW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 5-8 (OUUUU), North Queensland 7-7 (OUOUU)

Newcastle have opened up 2.5 to 4 point favourite's over the Sydney Roosters.

I am loathe to lay the points here but Newcastle are 5-1 against teams currently outside the top eight this year and the Roosters can't score points, failing to bust 13 in the last nine weeks. The Knights also have a nice looking halves combination in Kurt Gidley and Ryan Stig this week. Newcastle should win this so bet 1 unit on the Knights -2.5.

The best bet of the weekend is the under in this game. These teams are a combined 20-6 under and neither team has gone over in any of their last five encounters. These two totalled 22 when they met five weeks back and every match at Newcastle has totalled less than 44.

Bet 3 units on the under if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 5-8 (LLLWL), Sydney Roosters 5-8 (LWLWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 4-9 (UUUUU) Sydney Roosters 2-11 (UUUUU)

St George-Illawarra have opened up 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites in their much anticipated clash with Manly.

I think the Dragons will bounce back from three straight weeks of failing to claim victory against a Manly team who has won six straight. They match up better in the forwards and word is that Wayne Bennett has gone easy on his side. But I can't recommend a side bet here, particularly with the composition of the teams still up in the air.

There looks to be another good under play here though with both these sides big under teams and the history of good sides playing under games when playing each other. None of the three these played in 2010 passed 32 points and only one of the last six at Wollongong has surpassed 41 points. Play 2.5 units under if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: St George-Illawarra 8-6 (LWLLL), Manly 9-5 (WWWWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: St George-Illawarra 4-10 (UOUOU), Manly 5-9 (UOOUO)

1 unit on Under (Tigers-Bulldogs) if line is 38 or bigger
1 unit on Brisbane -4.5 at Sports Alive at $1.92
2 units on Parramatta +4 at Centrebet at $1.96
3 units on Under (Warriors-Storm) if line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on North Queensland +2.5 at Sportsbet at $1.92
1 unit on Newcastle -2.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
3 units on Under (Knights-Roosters) if line is 36.5 or bigger.

2.5 units on Under (Dragons-Sea Eagles) if line is 36.5 or bigger

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                103         181              189.89                      +8.89


Tags: ,

Comments (2)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. WittyReference says:

    As someone who doesn't bet, I don't understand anything on this page but would really appreciate if each week you also included your straight tips on who will win each game. Cheers.