The Early Line: Round 17

Filed in The Early Line by on July 2, 2011

Parramatta have opened up 2.5 point favourites in their Friday night match with Brisbane.

The Eels have won 7 of 12 against the Broncos but their attack looks non-existent without Jarryd Hayne. The Broncos, meanwhile, look fairly well balanced across the board. Parramatta were dreadful last week so even though the return from Perth is concerning, we will have a 1 unit play on the Broncos +2.5.

No total play.

COVER FORM:Parramatta 6-8 (WWWWL), Brisbane 9-6 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 7-7 (OUUOU), Brisbane 6-9 (OOOUU)

Penrith host Canterbury on Saturday and the line has opened with Canterbury favoured by 4.5. There is only one play here and it is the Penrith Panthers.

The Panthers have covered in six straight weeks and are the hot betting team at present. They have won 8 of 11 against Canterbury and the Dogs have lost four straight without Michael Ennis. The Panthers will miss Luke Lewis but he can be covered. Ennis cannot. Take the points here for 2 units.

Both these teams are under teams but they have a history of high scoring matches. I have a strong lean under but cannot recommend a play.

COVER FORM:Penrith 10-4 (WWWWW), Canterbury 8-6 (LWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 6-8 (UUUUO), Canterbury 5-9 (UUOUU)

South Sydney have opened up 2 point favourites over Cronulla even though the game is being played at Shark Park.

Souths have lost Dave Taylor and Greg Inglis for this while the Sharks are without leader Paul Gallen.

Souths have had to travel back from Perth and the Sharks have a better forward pack and I think they will win but I can't recommend a side here with any confidence.

There is a small under play here though with Souths going under in their last five and the Sharks under in three of five at home this year. 1 unit if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Cronulla 7-7 (LWLWW), South Sydney 7-7 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 9-5 (OUOUO), South Sydney 7-7 (UUUUU)

Despite the Dragons missing seven players to Origin to the two of the Knights, St George-Illawarra have opened up 2.5 point favourites against the Knights.

Newcastle have won the last three matches against the Dragons at Kogarah/Wollongong and there is no doubt many of the Knights players will be jacked up for a big game to impress/jam it up incoming coach Wayne Bennett. The Knights have been defending stoutly and can best the Dragons. Play 1.5 units on the plus.

There is a confident under play here as well with the Dragons 11-4 under this year and the Knights 10-4 under, the latter going under the total in their last five. None of the last six between these two has surpassed 44. Key playmakers are missing from both sides as well. I can't see many points here. Play 2.5 units on the under if the total is 37 or more.

COVER FORM:St George-Illawarra 9-6 (WLLLW). Newcastle 6-8 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: St George-Illawatta 4-11 (OUOUU), Newcastle 4-10 (UUUUU)

The Sydney Roosters have opened up 0.5point home underdogs against the Canberra Raiders.

The Raiders are good things here despite missing Josh Dugan and the Roosters having won 18 of 24 contests between the two dating back to 1998. The Raiders are hardly flying but the Roosters attack is historically bad, failing to break 13 points for the 10th straight week against Newcastle. That situation is unlikely to improve sans Mitchell Pearce and Anthony Minichiello. Canberra will have too many points for the Roosters.

Bet 2.5 units on Canberra giving away the 0.5-point start.

Bettors also have to play the under here with the Roosters 12-2 under for the season. The Raiders are a slight over but four of the last five between these two have totalled 40 or less and, yeah, the Roosters are an historically inept attacking team that has Ricky Stuart teams looking like The Entertainers.

Bet 2.5 units on the under if the line is 37 or above.

COVER FORM:Sydney Roosters 5-9 (WLWLL). Canberra 4-10 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 2-12 (UUUUU), Canberra 8-6 (UOOOU)

Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!Match Tips: Brisbane, Penrith, Cronulla, Newcastle, Canberra

1 units on Brisbane +2.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2 units on Penrith +4.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
1 unit on Under (Panthers-Bulldogs) if line is 38 or bigger
1.5 units on Newcastle +2.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2.5 units on Under (Dragons-Knights) if line is 37 or bigger
2.5 units on Canberra -0.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2.5 units on Under (Roosters-Raiders) if line is 37 or bigger

Don’t forget the standing wager of 2 units on the under on any game when the weather is wet and the line is 32 or larger

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                112         197.5             213.88                      +16.38


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