The Early Line: Round 18

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on July 4, 2012

The Wests Tigers are getting 3.5 to 4 points in their monster clash with Canterbury at Allianz Stadium. The Tigers have won 7 of 11 against the Bulldogs but have allowed 80 points in their last two games while the Bulldogs are on a five-game win streak. The Tigers are 7-1 as a home underdog and 13-6 as an underdog of less than a touchdown since 2010. The numbers suggest a small bet on the Tigers. Play them for 0.5 units as the eyes suggest the Bulldogs should carve this one up.

The last four have tallied 38 or less but there is no total here.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 6-9 (WWLLL), Canterbury 11-4 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 9-6 (UOUOO), Canterbury 7-8 (UOOOU)

Melbourne are favoured by 12 to 12.5 point favourites in their match with Canberra. The Storm have won 18 of 20 since 2003 against the Raiders and last year saw an 11-year home win streak against the Raiders come to an end. The Storm have won 23 of 27 at home while the Raiders have lost 4 of 5 on the road. The Storm have beaten teams not inside the eight this year by an average of 22.17. The Storm are 37-20 ATS as a fave and 22-11 ATS at home since 2010 while the Raiders are 11-18 ATS over the same period as a road dog. Bet the Storm minus for 1.5 units.

No totals in Storm games for me.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 12-3 (WWWWL), Canberra 6-9 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 8-7 (OUUOU), Canberra 10-5 (OOOOO)

Gold Coast are getting 2 to 2.5 points at home against New Zealand. Very keen on the Titans here. The Titans have won 4 of their last 6 with the most impressive aspect of the Titans has been their improved defence, allowing more than 15 points just once in the last seven outings. The Warriors, meanwhile, have not won back-to-back games just once this year and are just 1-5 in their last six in Australia and have lost 4 of 5 at Skilled. The Warriors have won three on the trot against the Titans but have a 6-5 all-time edge and they have covered in 6 of the last 7. Bet the Titans for 2 units.

The Warriors are just killing the over this year and the Titans can go over as well, at least recently. No numbers to support the play so just 0.5 units if the line is 42.5 or under.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 8-7 (WWLWW), New Zealand 6-9 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 5-10 (UOOOU), New Zealand 12-3 (OUOOO)

South Sydney go in 9.5 to 10.5 point favourites against Newcastle. The Knights are 25-7 all-time against the Bunnies. Souths are 22-11 ATS at home and 11-5 ATS as a home fave since 2010. That is worth a 1 unit bet on the minus.

No total bet here.

COVER FORM: South Sydney 8-7 (WLWLW), Newcastle 6-9 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 8-7 (OOUOO), Newcastle 6-9 (UOOOU)

Manly are favoured by 12.5 to 13.5 points at home against Parramatta. I hate to say it but the Eels are a show here with a huge start. The Eels have won 2 of their last 4 and have covered their last two at Brookvale, winning 3 of 5 against Manly. The Sea Eagles have won 14 of 16 at home but have failed to cover the start in 4 of their last 5 at Brookvale. Chris Anderson joining the Eels has me thinking they will be revitalised this week. Bet the plus for 1 unit.

No total.

COVER FORM: Manly 8-7 (WLWLW), Parramatta 6-9 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 9-6 (UUUOO), Parramatta 9-6 (UOUUU)

Cronulla are fancied by 5.5 to 6.5 points in their clash with the Sydney Roosters. The Sharks have won 4 of 7 against the Chooks including 3 of 4 at Shark Park. There is nothing that suggests a bet here though Cronulla have been an outstanding betting team.

No total.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 11-4 (LLWWW), Sydney Roosters 8-7 (LLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 6-9 (UOOOU), Sydney Roosters 9-6 (UOOOO)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Canterbury, Melbourne, Gold Coast, South Sydney, Manly, Cronulla

0.5 units on Wests Tigers +4 at Sportingbet at $1.90
1.5 units on Melbourne -12 at Centrebet at $1.90
2.5 units on Gold Coast +2.5 at Sportingbet at $1.90
0.5 units on Over (GC-NZ) if the line is 42.5 or under
1 unit on South Sydney -9.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
1 unit on Parramatta +13.5 at Centrebet at $1.90

Overall: 193 units bet for 194.96 units returned for a POT of 1.01%
Line: 79.5 units bet for 89.32 units returned for a POT of 12.35%
Total: 113.5 units bet for 105.64 units returned for a POT of -6.93%



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