The Early Line: Round 18

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on July 7, 2011

New Zealand have opened up 9.5 point favourites in their home clash with Gold Coast.

It is rare that I jump at a big minus on a team that has failed to cover the last five but this Warriors team looks stronger with Micheal Luck and Sam Rapira back and the Titans are pathetic this year, making the number only four times. The Warriors thumped the Titans 34-14 only nine weeks back and the Titans are 2-5 on the road this year.

Play 1.5 units on the Warriors -9.5.

The Warriors are a big under team this year but these two have a history of high scorers, with their last seven totalling over 40. No bet.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 7-8 (LLLLL), Gold Coast 4-11 (LLWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 4-11 (OUUUU), Gold Coast 7-8 (UUOUO)

Parramatta are 1.5 point home underdogs against the Wests Tigers.

I have no idea how this game will play out. Will Benji return? Will Jarryd Hayne back up? This is more impossible than a Rubik’s Cube.

No bet, side or total.

COVER FORM: Parramatta 6-9 (WWWLL), Wests Tigers 5-10 (LLWLL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 7-8 (UUOUU), Wests Tigers 6-9 (OUOUU)

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Cronulla have been hot of late and as such, have opened 2.5 point favourites against Canberra.

The Sharks have covered four of their last five but they are only 3-3 at home this year. The Raiders have been dreadful in 2011 but have looked much better in recent weeks with Josh Papalii starting and Josh McCrone playing with more confidence.

The Raiders have won three of their last four against the Sharks and have been victorious in four of their last six, busting 20 points on every occasion. They are a little long. We will take the 2.5 points for 1.5 units.

Five of the six between these two have totalled 44 or more and both teams are 9-6 over this year. Shark Park is a worry so we will only play 1.5 units the over if the total is 41.5 or less.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 8-7 (WLWWW), Canberra 5-10 (LLLWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 9-6 (UOUOU), Canberra 9-6 (OOOUO)

Canterbury and Melbourne play in Adelaide this Saturday night with the Storm 4.5 to 5.5 point favourites.

I love the Storm here. Melbourne are 11-4 against the number this year, have won seven of nine against the Dogs and have held opponents to a total of 30 points in their last five games, not allowing a single team to break double figures. The Dogs, meanwhile, have managed to break 28 just once in the last eight weeks, a period where they have scored three tries or more just twice. Melbourne have too many points in them for the Bulldogs. Bet the Storm -4.5 for 2 units.

The bet of the weekend here is the under. Both teams are 10-5 under in 2011, the Dogs can’t score and the Storm don’t allow points. Play 3 units if the total is 35.5 or more.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 8-7 (WLLWL), Melbourne 11-4 (LWWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 5-10 (UOUUU), Melbourne 5-10 (UUUUU)

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Penrith travel to the Sydney Football Stadium to take on the Sydney Roosters and enter the match 2 point favourites.

The Panthers have been severely undervalued by the market this year, going 11-4 against the number. They have covered eight straight and have looked good under new coach Steve Georgallis. The Roosters, meanwhile, are a team in disarray, having now not scored 14 points for 11 straight weeks. Bet the Panthers laying 2 points for 2 units.

The Roosters went over on Monday but are 12-3 under and still can’t score points. The Panthers are 9-6 under including going under the mark in four of their last five. Bet 2 units under if the line is 37 or over.

COVER FORM: Sydney Roosters 5-10 (LWLLL), Penrith 11-4 (WWWWW)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 3-12 (UUUUO), Penrith 6-9 (UUUOU)

Manly have opened up 8.5 to 9.5 points home favourites against South Sydney.

Souths actually go reasonably well against Manly, with the Bunnies winning four of nine against the Eagles. They are struggling though. I think Manly win but no play.

At first appearances, this looks an under game with Souths on a big under streak and Manly 10-5 under but these two have been involved in some shootouts of late, with five of their last six totalling 51 or more. No total.

COVER FORM: Manly 9-6 (WWWLL), South Sydney 7-8 (LLWWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 5-10 (OOUOU), South Sydney 7-8 (UUUUU)

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Newcastle have opened up 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites against North Queensland on Monday night.

The Knights smashed the Cowboys in round two 34-22 (the Cowboys only home loss of the year) and the Knights have won five of seven. The Cowboys also struggle on the road. Take 1 unit on the Knights minus.

Newcastle are having a big run over under and are 11-4 under this season. These two have a big run of overs with eight straight going over 46 though. We will have a small 1 unit play on the under but only if the line is 41.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 7-8 (LWLWW), North Queensland 11-4 (WWLWL)

OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 4-11 (UUUUU), North Queens. 8-7 (UOUUO)

Tipping Winners: New Zealand, Parramatta, Canberra, Melbourne, Penrith, Manly, Newcastle

1.5 units on New Zealand -8.5 at $1.92 at Centrebet
2.5 units on Canberra +2.5 at $1.92 at Sportingbet
1.5 units on Over (Cronulla-Canberra) if line is 41.5 or smaller
2 units on Melbourne -4.5 at $1.92 at Centrebet
3 units on Under (Bulldogs-Storm) if line is 35.5 or bigger
2 units on Penrith -2 at $1.92 at Centrebet
2 units on Under (Roosters-Panthers) if line is 37 or bigger
1 units on Newcastle -2.5 at $1.92 at Centrebet
1 unit on Under (Knights-Cowboys) if line is 41.5 or bigger

Remember, a standing 2 unit bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                119         210.5            234.01                        +23.51

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