The Early Line: Round 19

Filed in The Early Line by on July 11, 2012

Canterbury are favoured by 16.5 points, the biggest line of the season, in their clash with arch-rivals Parramatta. The Bulldogs have won six straight and are the top cover team in the premiership while the Eels have won just three times all year. Parramatta have been in reasonable cover form of late though but have lost seven straight at ANZ, by an average margin of 20.71. The Bulldogs have beaten Parra in three straight and rolled them by 34 in round nine but I can't lay three converted tries.

This is shaping as an over game if the weather stays clear. These two have hit 48 in 3 of 4, both are in over form and this shapes as a touch-up. Bet 1 unit on the over if the line is 44 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 12-4 (WWWWW), Parramatta 7-9 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 8-8 (OOOUO), Parramatta 10-6 (OUUUO)

Brisbane are favoured by 6 points in their match with New Zealand. This should be a beauty of a match. A funny pattern exists between these two: they have gone two for two since 2004 with this year being a Warriors win. The Broncos are 21-13 ATS since 2010 at home and 26-16 ATS as a favourite while the Warriors are 3-5 ATS on the road this year and struggled against Penrith and Gold Coast in their road wins. Lay the minus for 1 unit.

Warriors games are over games. Take 1 unit the over if the line is 44 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 9-7 (WWLWL), New Zealand 7-9 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 8-8 (OOUOU), New Zealand 13-3 (UOOOO)

Melbourne are spotting 5.5 to 6 points in their match-up with North Queensland. The Storm were short Cameron Smith but they were dreadful against an understrength Raiders team. They have now lost 3 of 4 and points can't be laid on them for a few weeks yet, despite the Storm having won 9 of 10 against the Cows and seven straight in Melbourne. The Cowboys are 9-17 ATS interstate since 2010. No bet.

The Cowboys are 17-11 over as a road dog since 2010 while the Storm are 5-2 over as a home fave this year. Take the over for 1 unit.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 12-4 (WWWLL), Cowboys 8-8 (LLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 9-7 (UUOUO), Cowboys 10-6 (OOUOO)

Newcastle are getting 8 to 8.5 points at home, where they welcome Manly. The Knights are 2-5 against top eight sides and have not got a win against one since round four, losing by an average of 22. The Sea Eagles have won 7 of 9 and 3 of 4 on the road. The Knights have failed to cover in 6 of 7 as an underdog while Manly have won 4 of 5 against Newcastle. No Brett Stewart is a worry but this is worth a 0.5 unit bet on the Eagles.

There is no total play here.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 6-10 (LLWWL), Manly 9-7 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 7-9 (OOOUO), Manly 10-6 (UUOOO)

The struggling Wests Tigers are favoured by 10.5 to 12.5 points in their clash with club in turmoil Penrith. The Tigers have won four straight against Penrith but have allowed 112 points in their last three. This game is a definite no bet.

A lean on the over here but no interest in playing this one at all.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 6-10 (WWLLL), Penrith 5-11 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 10-6 (OUOOO), Penrith 9-7 (UOOUO)

Canberra are favoured by 5.5 at home against the Gold Coast. The Titans are 6-5 all-time in this match-up and are 13-10 ATS interstate since 2010. The Raiders have covered 3 of 4 but are a shocking 6-17 ATS as a favourite since 2010. The Titans aren't a bad team. Bet them for 2 units in Canberra.

These two have gone over in 9 of their last 10 combined. Bet the over for 1 unit if the total is 46 or lower.

COVER FORM: Canberra 7-9 (LWLWW), Gold Coast 9-7 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 11-5 (OOOOO), Gold Coast 6-10 (OOOUO)

I don't see how the Dragons are 4-point favourites against Cronulla, despite their home field advantage. The Dragons have scored 20 points just four times this season. The Sharks have lost just 3 of their last 14 and are 4-2 ATS as a road underdog this year. The Dragons have won 5 of 7 against the Sharks and are the worst betting team in the NRL, covering just four times this year. The Sharks are too good to ignore in this one. Bet them for 1 unit.

These two are both under teams and have not had a total pass 46 since 2005 and only one pass 38 since 2007. Try the under for 1 unit if the line is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Dragons 4-12 (LLLLL), Cronulla 11-5 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 5-11 (UUOUO), Cronulla 6-10 (OOOUU)

The Sydney Roosters are getting 8 to 9.5 points against rivals South Sydney. The Roosters have won 4 of 5 against Souths but the Bunnies are flying. There is a lean South Sydney but the Roosters lift for them. No play.

The Bunnies are 18-12 over as a road underdog and these two have tallied 41 in 8 of the last 9. Bet 1 unit on the over if the line is 44 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Roosters 9-7 (LLWLW), Souths 9-7 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 9-7 (OOOOU), Souths 9-7 (OUOOO)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Canterbury, Brisbane, Melbourne, Manly, Wests Tigers, Gold Coast, Cronulla, South Sydney

1 unit on Over (Bul-Par) if the line is 44 or smaller
1 unit on Brisbane -6 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Over (Bri-War) if the line is 44 or smaller
1 unit on Over (Mel-Cow) is the line is 42.5 or smaller
0.5 unit on Manly -8 at Luxbet at $1.92
2 units on Gold Coast +5.5 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Over (Can-GC) if the line is 46 or smaller
1 unit on Cronulla +4 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Dra-Cro) is the line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on Over (Roo-Sou) if the line is 44 or smaller

Overall:200 units bet for 197.83 units returned for a POT of -1.09%
Line: 86 units bet for 91.24 units returned for a POT of 6.09%
Total: 114 units bet for 106.59 units returned for a POT of -6.5%



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