The Early Line: Round 2

Filed in The Early Line by on March 7, 2012

Manly have opened up 2-point favourites across the board in their clash with the Wests Tigers in Gosford. The Tigers have won 3 of 4 against Manly. No real betting situations present themselves here except Manly as a home favourite, where they were 11-4 ATS last year. That should be taken with a grain of salt – this isn't at Brookvale – but with the Tigers really short up front, 1 unit can be put on Manly at the plus.

The under here can also be bet for 1 unit. The Tigers are 32-22 under over the last two years and went 13-7 under at night while Manly were 11-7 under at night. Take the under if the line is 38.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Manly 1-0, Wests Tigers 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 1-0, Wests Tigers 0-1

Brisbane are 5.5-to-6 point favourites with bookmakers against North Queensland. The Broncos have won 8 of 9 against the Cowboys were just dreadful, completing only 46 per cent of their sets. The Broncos are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as favourite and 16-10 ATS at home over the last two years and with the Cowboys 8-17 ATS away from Townsville over the last two years, Brisbane can be played with confidence. 2 units Brisbane.

No total play with the Broncos an under team as a home favourite but the Cowboys over on the road.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 1-0, North Queensland 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 0-1, North Queensland 0-1

Gold Coast will play as 2 to 2.5 point favourites in their clash with Canberra at Skilled Stadium. The Raiders are 8-17 ATS when playing on the road and 2-8 ATS when travelling interstate over the last two years. The Titans are a poor 8-13 ATS as a favourite the last two years so betting is tempered and only 0.5 units should be place on the minus.

The Raiders are 13-8 under when an away underdog but there just isn't enough here for an under.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 1-0, Canberra 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 0-1, Canberra 1-0

St George Illawarra have won six straight against Canterbury dating back to 2008 and as such have opened 4 to 4.5 point road favourites. The Bulldogs were 5-2 ATS as a home underdog last year but the Dragons were 6-8 ATS away from home in 2011. I expect the Dragons to win but the line is right on.

The under looks a very good bet here. The Dragons are an outstanding under team, going 36-18 under since the start of 2010. Over that time they are 21-6 under on the road. Canterbury are 22-16 under at night over the last three seasons and were 5-2 under as a home underdog last year. 2 units if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 1-0, St George Illawarra 1-0
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 1-0, St George Illawarra 0-1

Betting on the Cronulla-Newcastle clash is interesting with the Sharks 2 to 3.5 point underdogs. My first reaction was that the line should be a lot bigger but the Knights are a poor 2-8 ATS when favoured by less than 6 over the last two years. The Sharks will feel it after playing in such torrid conditions last week but no bet.

The Knights are 16-9 under away over the last two years while Cronulla were 8-4 under at home. Both look like strong defensive units this year. The day setting is the only concern. Bet 1 unit under if the total is 40 or bigger.  

COVER FORM: Cronulla 1-0, Newcastle 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 0-1, Newcastle 0-1

The Sydney Roosters have opened 4.5 to 5.5 point favourites in their Sunday afternoon clash with Penrith. Both these teams struggled in the day last year. The Roosters have won 8 of 12 against Penrith but the Panthers are right in this. No betting situations but the plus if forced.

There is no noteworthy total play in this one.  Penrith were 5-2 over in the day last year but were 8-3 under as a road underdog. The Roosters were a slight over team at home.

COVER FORM: Sydney Roosters 1-0, Penrith 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 1-0, Penrith 1-0

The Melbourne Storm have never lost to South Sydney in Melbourne in eight tries with the Storm saluting by an average margin of over 30. As such, they are rated 6 to 7.5 point favourites by bookmakers. The Storm are 16-9 ATS as a home favourite over the last two years and 16-5 ATS when favoured by six or less. The Bunnies were 4-8 ATS away from home and 2-6 ATS as a road underdog last year. Bet the Storm for 2 units.

The Storm are a classic under team: 35-16 under since 2010, 18-8 under at home, 22-13 under at night. With Souths looking like a distinctly under team (but with a recent record as an over side) we will play the under for 1 unit if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 1-0, South Sydney 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 1-0, South Sydney 1-0

Parramatta have opened up 4.5 to 5.5 home underdogs against New Zealand. Parramatta should be the play here as they are 7-3 as a home underdog since 2010 but the Warriors have been 18-11 ATS on the road the last two years, going 3-2 ATS as a road favourite. No play.  

No big total situations in this one either.

COVER FORM: Parramatta 0-1, New Zealand 0-1
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 0-1, New Zealand 1-0

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips: Manly, Brisbane, Gold Coast, St George Illawarra, Newcastle, Penrith, Melbourne, New Zealand

Recommended Bets:
1 unit on Manly +2 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Under (Man-Tig) if line is 38.5 or bigger

2 units on Brisbane -5.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
0.5 units on Gold Coast -2 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
2 units on Under (Bul-Dra) if line is 36.5 or bigger
1 unit Under (Cro-New) if line is 40 or bigger
2 units on Melbourne -6 at $1,91 (Sportingbet)
1 unit on Under (Mel-Sou) if line is 36.5 or bigger

Overall: 13 units bet for 13.38 units returned for a POT of 2.92%
Line: 4 units bet for 5.74 units returned for a POT of 43.5%
Over-Under: 9 units bet for 7.64 units returned for a POT of -16.22%



Comments (2)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Are you sure Manly opened as a 2 pt fav? All books Ive seen have Tigers marginal favourties, with Manly slowly shortening closer to game time…