The Early Line: Round 20

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on July 17, 2012

Manly are favoured by 3.5 in their monster grudge match with Canterbury at Brookvale on Friday night. The Sea Eagles have won 9 of 13 against the Bulldogs but Canterbury are 2 of 5 at Brookvale. The Sea Eagles are 28-27 without Brett Stewart over the last four seasons, compared to 29-10 when he is in the side. With Canterbury 13-4 ATS this year, the Bulldogs are the play for 1.5 units.

There is a little lean the over but there is no numbers to back it up.

COVER FORM: Manly 9-8 (WLWWL), Canterbury 13-4 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 10-7 (UOOOU), Canterbury 9-8 (OOUOO)

Gold Coast are copping 6 points at home in their derby with Brisbane. The Titans are improved but struggle against the Broncos, losing the last six and scoring just seven tries in their last five. The Broncos are 10-5 ATS since 2010 as a road fave and have too much class. Get on the Broncos for 1 unit.

Only one of the last five between these two has tallied 34 and the Broncos are in under mode. There is a worry that the Titans may get involved in shootout footy though so no total with a close go the under.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 10-7 (LWWLW), Brisbane 9-8 (WLWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 7-10 (OOUOO), Brisbane 8-9 (OUOUU)

New Zealand are spotting Newcastle 8.5 to 9.5 points at Mt Smart.  The Warriors have won 10 of 12 against the Knights with Newcastle not winning in Auckland since 2005. The Knights have averaged just 10.4 points in their last five against the Warriors while the Warriors have scored 30-plus in 4 of their last 5 at home. The Warriors are 15-10 ATS as a home favourite while the Eels have been Newcastle's only scalp in seven road trips. Get on the Warriors for 1 unit.

The Warriors are the over team. On that basis, we are having 1 unit the over here if the total is less than 44.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 8-9 (WLWWW), Newcastle 7-10 (LWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 13-4 (OOOOU), Newcastle 7-10 (OOUOU)

Parramatta are getting 12.5 to 14.5 points at home against Melbourne. The Storm have won 11 of 15 against Parramatta but have been rolled in 4 of 5, failing to cover in their last three. They aren't betting propositions at present while it would be madness to be on Parramatta. A lean the big plus but no play.

These two have a history of under matches but the Storm are playing wide open and the Eels love letting in points. A small 0.5 unit play the over if the line is 40.5 or under.

COVER FORM: Parramatta 7-10 (LWLWL), Melbourne 12-5 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 11-6 (UUUOO), Melbourne 9-8 (UOUOU)

South Sydney are giving St George Illawarra 4.5 to 5.5 points in an enticing affair at ANZ. The Bunnies have won 8 of 10 and have beaten six non-top eight sides by an average of 14.17 over that period. Souths have also won 14 of 18 at ANZ while the Dragons have lost seven straight on the road. Souths are 23-11 ATS at home. Bet them for 2 units with a concern Issac Luke is out.

We come to one of our favourite plays: the under in Dragons road games. The Dragons are 8-1 under as a road dog since 2010 and 26-8 under away. Bet the under for 2 units.

COVER FORM: South Sydney 9-8 (WLWWL), Dragons 5-12 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 10-7 (UOOOO), Dragons 5-12 (UOUOU)

Cronulla will spot the inconsistent Canberra 6.5 to 7.5 points. The Sharks have won 9 of 13 against the Raiders but there are weird goings on at the Sharks and the Raiders are too inconsistent too consider. No bet.

The Sharks are big unders at home while the Raiders are big overs. No play.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 11-6 (WWWLL), Canberra 7-10 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 6-11 (OOUUU), Canberra 12-5 (OOOOO)

Penrith and the Sydney Roosters are pick 'em for their Sunday afternoon clash. Funny how this game – the worst of the round – ended up on Channel Nine, hey Gus and Gyng? Disgraceful. The Roosters have won 8 of 13 against Penrith but the Panthers have won the last two at Centrebet. Too hard to figure, lean Roosters.

There is a little lean the over here but no strong play.

COVER FORM: Penrith 6-11 (LLLLW), Roosters 10-7 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 10-7 (OOUOO), Roosters 10-7 (OOOUO)

North Queensland are favoured by 3.5 to 4 points at home against the Wests Tigers. The Tigers have won 12 of 15 against the Cowboys and are 15-8 ATS as an underdog since 2010. The Cowboys are 14-7 ATS as a home favourite over the same time. Got to play the Tigers here for 1 unit.

The Cowboys are 12-6 over as a favourite of less than a try the last three seasons and the Tigers are 8-3 over at night this year. Bet 1 unit the over.

COVER FORM: North Qld 9-8 (LWWLW), Tigers 6-11 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: North Qld 10-7 (OUOOU), Tigers 11-6 (UOOOO)
*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Canterbury, Brisbane, New Zealand, Melbourne, South Sydney, Canberra, Sydney Roosters, Wests Tigers

1.5 units on Canterbury +3.5 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Brisbane -6 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on New Zealand -8.5  at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on Over (War-New) if the line is 44 or less
0.5 unit on Over (Par-Mel) if the line is 40.5 or less
2 units on South Sydney -4.5 at Sportingbet at $1.90
2 units on Under (Sou-Dra) if the line is 35.5 or bigger
1 unit on Wests Tigers +4 Bet365 at $1.91
1 unit Over (Cow-Tig) if the line is 44.5 or bigger

Overall:212.5 units bet for 216.93 units returned for a POT of 2.08%
Line:90.5 units bet for 95.06 units returned for a POT of 5.04%
122 units bet for 121.87 units returned for a POT of -0.11%



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