The Early Line: Round 20

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on July 20, 2011

Betting in the Canterbury-Parramatta match has opened between pick'em and Canterbury +1.5.

It is tough to get too excited about either of these teams but Parramatta has won 8 of the last 10 against Canterbury and have shown a bit more flair with Jarryd Hayne in the No.6 jersey and Luke Burt at fullback. The Dogs are a rabble at the moment and Jim Dymock won't put an end to the mess. On that logic, we will have a one unit play on the Eels at match odds.

No total play here.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 8-9 (LWLLL), Parramatta 8-9 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 7-10 (UUUOO), Parramatta 8-9 (OUUUO)

Melbourne have opened up between 4 and 5.5 point favourites in their blockbuster clash with Brisbane this Friday.

The Storm have won 14 of 18 at AAMI Park and 13 of 17 against the Broncos. They are riding a seven game winning streak where they have only once allowed their opponents a double-figure score in that time. The Broncos are playing well but they have split their last four road games. Play 2.5 units on Melbourne giving 4 points.

Strangely, these two have a recent history of high scorers with the last four totalling in excess of 50 but to my eye this shapes as a stout defensive battle. Play 1 unit on the under if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Melbourne 13-4 (WWWWW), Brisbane 11-6 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 6-11 (UUUOU), Brisbane 7-10 (OUUUO)

Bookmakers have no idea what to do with the Gold CoastNorth Queensland match with Luxbet having the Titans 1 point favourites and others having the Cowboys 1.5 point favourites.

This is a horrible match. I won't be watching, betting or even thinking about it, lest my brain explodes.

COVER FORM:Gold Coast 4-13 (WLLLL), North Queensland 12-5 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 8-9 (OUOUO), North Queensland 9-8 (UUOUO)

The Wests Tigers have opened up 6.5 to 7.5 point favourites in their clash with the Sydney Roosters at Leichhardt Oval.

The Tigers sit seventh but their ladder position belies how poorly they have been playing. Forget about the demolition of the Cowboys, sans Thurston. Prior to that they lost three on the trot and were lucky to get away with wins over Newcastle and New Zealand as the club has been torn up by internal strife. 

The Roosters aren't going much better but as the club nears full health, it has looked stronger with a win over Penrith and an unlucky loss to South Sydney. The Roosters have won their last four against the Tigers and betting on this match skews too much to the Tigers. Bet 2.5 units on the Roosters +7.5.

These two have a recent history of low scorers with four of their last five totalling under 31. With the Roosters 13-4 under and the Tigers also an under team, we are going with 2 units on the under if the total is 36.5 or larger.

COVER FORM:Wests Tigers 6-11 (WLLLW), Sydney Roosters 7-10 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 7-10 (OUUUO) Sydney Roosters 4-13 (UUOOU)

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Cronulla have opened up 2 to 2.5 point favourites in their clash with Newcastle on Saturday night.

Newcastle have won six of nine against the Sharks and Cronulla face a quick backup. The Sharks just seem a little short here, particularly with Paul Gallen in some doubt. Jarrod Mullen has me concerned but the Knights do get Kurt Gidley back. Bet 1 unit on Newcastle +2.5.

No total play with the Sharks a clear over team and the Knights an obvious under outfit.

COVER FORM:Cronulla 9-8 (WWWWL), Newcastle 7-10 (LWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 11-6 (UOUOO), Newcastle 5-12 (UUUUO)

South Sydney have opened up 1 to 2 point outsiders in their clash with New Zealand at ANZ Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Souths are a different team at ANZ Stadium. On the road, they are 2-6, averaging 26.25 points per match. At ANZ, they are 5-4 where their defence improves a whopping 7 points. In their last five matches at the ground, they have lost only to Melbourne in a gritty showing. The Bunnies have won four of their last six against the Warriors and New Zealand have been two teams in dire straits the last fortnight. Bet the Bunnies with 2 points for 2 units.

No total play.

COVER FORM:South Sydney 5-12 (LLLLL), New Zealand 9-8 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 8-9 (UUUOU), New Zealand 5-12 (UUUUO)

Both Penrith and Manly have been very good betting teams this year, going 11-6 against the line. Betting in this match has opened with Penrith getting 5.5 across the board.

There is no doubt Manly are flying but Penrith have won five straight at home. I have a very strong push towards them but I'm tempered by two straight non-covers. If the line gets to six, I think there is a play here and I do think Penrith can win the match but I want to see final teams before betting as Luke Lewis and Nigel Plum are two very important players who are both in doubt. No side bet.

No total bet jumps out at this stage.

COVER FORM:Penrith 11-6 (WWWLL), Manly 11-6 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 8-9 (UOUOO), Manly 7-10 (UOUOO)

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Canberra have opened up 6.5 to 7.5 point home underdogs in their clash with defending premiers St George-Illawarra on Monday Night Football.

Amazingly, the Dragons have beaten Canberra only twice since 2001, making it an unbelievable two of 15. The Dragons have not won at Canberra Stadium in that time. Despite the Raiders obvious ownership of the Dragons, I cannot tip them this week. The left-fringe defence of Galea and Vidot are going to get carved to shreds by Mark Gasnier and Jamie Soward.

Play 1 unit on St George-Illawarra -6.5.

No total bets.   

COVER FORM: Canberra 5-12 (LWWLL), St George-Illawarra 10-7 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 9-8 (OUOUU), St George-Illawarra 5-12 (OUUUO)

Footy Tipping:Parramatta, Melbourne, North Queensland, Sydney Roosters, Newcastle, South Sydney, Penrith, St George-Illawarra

1 units on Parramatta at match odds of $1.91 at Centrebet
2.5 units on Melbourne -4 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on Under (Storm-Broncos) if line is 38 or bigger
2.5 units on Sydney Roosters +7.5 at $1.91 at Sports Alive
2 units on Under (Tigers-Roosters) if line is 36.5 or bigger
1 unit on Newcastle +2.5 at $1.92 at Luxbet
2 units on South Sydney +2 at $1.92 at Centrebet
1 unit on St George-Illawarra -6.5 at $1.92 at most bookmakers

Remember, a standing 2 unit bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13
18                10        18.5              12.43                            -6.07
19                11        20.5              13.40                            -7.10

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                140         249.5              259.84                       +10.34


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