The Early Line: Round 24

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on August 16, 2012

Brisbane get 4 to 4.5 points at home against rivals Melbourne. The Broncos have won just 4 of 19 against the Storm and just 1 of 6 at home against Melbourne. Tough to get a gauge on this. Melbourne are 20-8 ATS since 2010 as a fave of less than 6 but the Broncos are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog. A lean Melbourne because of their dominance in this match-up but both teams are struggling for form. No play.

There is no total play here with the Broncos riding four straight unders and the Storm four straight overs. A lean the over if anything.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 10-11 (LLLLW), Melbourne 13-8 (LLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 9-12 (OUUUU), Melbourne 12-9 (UOOOO)

Canterbury are favoured by 6.5 to 7.5 points in their monster clash with the Wests Tigers on Friday night. The Bulldogs have a 14-9 all-time edge against the Tigers including the last three. The Bulldogs are 12-7 ATS since 2010 as a fave of 6.5-12 points and get two key ballplayers back in props Sam Kasiano and James Graham. Try the Bulldogs for 1 unit.

No total play interests me here.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 16-5 (WWWWL), Tigers 8-13 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 10-11 (OUOUU), Tigers 13-8 (OOUOU)

Canberra are favoured by 6.5 to 7.5 points against the Sydney Roosters. This is definitely a play on the Roosters, who are 19-7 in their last 26 against Canberra. The Raiders are horrid favourites. They are 7-19 ATS as a favourite, 12-23 ATS at home and 10-21 ATS in the daytime since 2010. Take the plus for 2 units.

There is a lean the over but four unders straight for the Raiders has turned me off. No play.

COVER FORM: Canberra 10-11 (LWLWW), Roosters 11-10 (WLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 12-9 (OUUUU), Roosters 12-9 (OUOUO)

Cronulla are getting an even 6 points in their clash with South Sydney at Shark Park. The Bunnies have won 10 of 15 against Cronulla including 5 of 7 at Shark Park. The Sharks are 9-5 ATS as an underdog this year and the Bunnies have not covered in their last four games away from ANZ. The Sharks worth a shot here for 1 unit.

No total is of interest here.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 12-9 (LLLWL), Souths 12-9 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 8-13 (UUOOU), Souths 11-10 (OOUUU)

Despite conceding 97 points in the last two games, New Zealand are favoured by 8.5 to 9.5 points against Penrith. There is no way you can get on the Warriors despite the fact New Zealand have won 9 of 12 v Penrith. There is a lean on Penrith because of Ivan Cleary but no play.

This is a big over play. The Warriors are 16-5 over, both teams are out of contention and 10 of the last 12 have tallied over 42. Play the over for 2 units if the total is 46.5 or lower.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 9-12 (WLWLL), Penrith 8-13 (WWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 16-5 (UUOOO), Penrith 12-9 (OUOOU)

Gold Coast are favoured by 6 to 7 points in their clash with Parramatta. The Titans have won 4 of the 7 matches between the two teams and should prove too tough for the Eels. They are 2-1 ATS as favourites this year and the Eels are just 2-10 away from Parramatta Stadium this year. The Titans should be too good. Bet them for 1 unit.

The Eels are 7-3 over as a road underdog this year. Try the over for 0.5 units if the line is 44.5 or lower.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 13-8 (WWWLW), Parramatta 10-11 (LWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 9-12 (OUOUO), Parramatta 14-7 (OUOOO)

Manly are favoured by 8 to 8.5 points in their clash with Newcastle at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have won 9 of the last 16 between these two. Manly are 20-16 ATS at home since 2010 but have covered just 1 of their last 7 at Brookvale. The Knights have won just twice at Brookvale but can make the number this time in what will be a grinding affair. Play the plus for 1 unit.

We will try a 1 unit under play if the line is 38 or bigger with the Eagles under in 4 of their last 5 and the Knights 14-7 under all year and 19-12 under since 2010 as a road dog.

COVER FORM: Manly 11-10 (LLLWW), Newcastle 10-11 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 11-10 (UUOUU), Newcastle 7-14 (UUUUU)

St George Illawarra will get 4 to 4.5 points in their clash with North Queensland. The Dragons have been the worst ATS team all year, going 6-15 against the bookmakers' line. I can't find any angle worth betting though. No play.

The Cowboys are 18-10 under interstate since 2010 and the Dragons cannot score points. Take the under for 1 unit.

COVER FORM: Dragons 6-15 (WLWLL), Cowboys 11-10 (WWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 7-14 (UOOUU), Cowboys 13-8 (UOOUO)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Melbourne, Canterbury, Sydney Roosters, South Sydney, New Zealand, Gold Coast, Manly, North Queensland

1 unit on Canterbury -6.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
2 units on Sydney Roosters +7.5 at Luxbet at $1.94
1 unit on Cronulla +6 at Luxbet at $1.90
2 units on Over (War-Pen) if the line is 46.5 or smaller
1 unit on Gold Coast -6 at Centrebet at $1.90
0.5 units on Over (GC-Par) if the line is 44.5 or smaller
1 unit on Newcastle +8.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
1 unit on Under (Man-New) if the line is 38 or bigger
1 unit on Under (Dra-Cow) if the line is 38 or bigger

Overall:248.5 units bet for 262.63 units returned for a POT of 5.69%
Line:111 units bet for 123.60 units returned for a POT of 11.35%
Total: 137.5 units bet for 139.03 units returned for a POT of 1.11%



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