The Early Line: Round 25

Filed in The Early Line by on August 23, 2012

Manly will go in 6-point favourites in their clash with Brisbane at Brookvale. Manly have won 7 of the last 9 and 16 of the last 19 at Brookvale while the Broncos have lost five straight and won just 4 of their last 14. The Eagles haven't been great at home this year (at least as a cover) but were raging against Newcastle. No play, a lean the plus.

I can't find a total in this bad boy.

COVER FORM: Manly 12-10 (LLWWW), Brisbane 11-11 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 12-10 (UOUUO), Brisbane 9-13 (UUUUU)

Canberra tackle Canterbury in a must-win clash for the Raiders this week with the Green Machine getting 4.5 points. The Bulldogs have won 9 of 14 against the Raiders and have won 12 straight while Canberra are 12-24 ATS at home. The Bulldogs' passing game will cause the Raiders fringe all kinds of trouble. This line is way too small. Bet Canterbury for 3 units.

The Bulldogs are 5-1 over as a road favourite this year. Let's have a 1 unit play the over if the line is 42.5 or lower.

COVER FORM: Canberra 10-12 (WLWWL), Canterbury 16-6 (WWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 12-10 (UUUUU), Canterbury 11-11 (UOUUO)

Penrith are getting 4 to 4.5 points at home to a Gold Coast team looking to keep alive a faint hope of finals football. The Titans are 5-3 ATS interstate and 3-1 ATS as favourites this year and won this match-up earlier in the season. I think the Titans win this well as they match-up stronger across the park. Play for 1 unit.

Penrith are 9-5 under as a home underdog since 2010 and seem to go under when playing well but not quite a play.

COVER FORM: Penrith 9-13 (WWLLW), Gold Coast 14-8 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 12-10 (UOOUU), Gold Coast 9-13 (UOUOU)

The worst ATS team in the NRL, St George Illawarra, are favoured by 6 points against New Zealand, who will play under Tony Iro for the remainder of the season after firing Brian McClennan. The Dragons have won 14 of 18 against the Warriors including all 8 in Wollongong, the Dragons are 5-6 ATS at home this year and the Warriors have struggled in Australia this year – but I am going to make a rare gut play here and take on the 6-16 ATS Dragons laying points against a new coach for 1 unit.

The new coach may toughen the Warriors up so no total here.

COVER FORM: Dragons 6-16 (LWLLL), New Zealand 9-13 (LWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 8-14 (OOUUO), New Zealand 16-6 (UOOOU)

North Queensland are getting 8.5 to 10 points in their clash with Newcastle. The Cowboys have won 9 of 16 against the Knights including 3 of the last 4. The Cowboys are 15-8 ATS as a home favourite since 2010 while the Knights have lost by an average of 18 in their last five against top five teams. The Cowboys have to be tried for 1 unit.

The Cowboys are very much an over team this year while the Knights are 4-4 as a road dog (meaning they are 10-4 in all other situations), suggesting this is their best over situation. Try for 1 unit if the line is 44 or under.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 12-10 (WLLWW), Newcastle 10-12 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 14-8 (OOUOO), Newcastle 8-14 (UUUUO)

The Sydney Roosters are getting 4 to 4.5 points at home against a Wests Tigers side that is 2-7 without Robbie Farah over the last four years. The Chooks have won 7 of the last 10 against the Tigers while the Tigers have been a poor 9-13 ATS this year. The Tigers have won just 4 of their last 12 at the SFS. The Roosters worth a 1.5 unit play.

No total.

COVER FORM: Roosters 12-10 (LLWLW), Tigers 9-13 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 12-10 (UOUOU), Tigers 14-8 (OUOUO)

South Sydney are favoured by 13.5 to 14.5 against Parramatta at ANZ. The Bunnies have won 15 of 19 at ANZ while the Eels have lost eight straight at the ground. The Rabbitohs have won the last four against the Eels by an average of 22.5 and have won their last five at ANZ by an average of 22.8. Souths are 14-5 ATS as a home fave since 2010. The line is big but the minus is worth 0.5 units.

A lean the over but no total.

COVER FORM: Souths 12-10 (WWWLL), Parramatta 10-12 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 11-11 (OUUUU), Parramatta 14-8 (UOOOU)

Melbourne will spot Cronulla 7.5 points in the last Monday night game of the season. The Storm have won 7 of 9 against the Sharks with the Storm winning the last three against Cronulla in Melbourne. The Storm are 7-4 ATS at home this year but no play.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 13-9 (LLWLL), Cronulla 13-9 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 12-10 (OOOOU), Cronulla 8-14 (UOOUU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Manly, Canterbury, Gold Coast, New Zealand, North Queensland, Sydney Roosters, South Sydney, Melbourne

3 units on Canterbury -4.5 at Centrebet at $1.95
1 unit on Over (Can-Bul) if the total is 42.5 or lower
1 unit on Gold Coast -4 at IAS Bet at $1.92
1 unit on New Zealand +6 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on North Queensland -8.5 at Betezy at $1.91
1 unit on Over (Cow-New) if the line is 44 or lower
1.5 units on Sydney Roosters +4.5 at Sportingbet at $1.91
0.5 units on South Sydney -13.5 at Centrebet at $1.91

Overall:259 units bet for 270.31 units returned for a POT of 4.36%
Line:117 units bet for 131.28 units returned for a POT of 12.21%
Total:142 units bet for 139.03 units returned for a POT of  -2.09%



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