The Early Line: Round 5

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on March 27, 2012

Brisbane have opened up 4 to 4.5 point favourites in their monster clash with St George Illawarra, the first time Wayne Bennett hasn't coached in this clash. The Broncos have won 5 of the last 6 between these two and are 34-21 ATS since 2010. The Dragons are 3-1 ATS as an outsider over the last two years and Brisbane are 18-10 ATS at night over the same time. A lean on the Dragons but no bet.

Both these teams are strong under bets this year with the Dragons 38-19 under over the last three seasons, 22-6 under on the road and 6-0 under as a road underdog. The Broncos are 8-4 under over the last two years as a home favourite. Bet the under for 2 units if the line is 35.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 3-1 (WLWW), Dragons 3-1 (WLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 1-3 (UOUU), Dragons 1-3 (UUOU)

The undefeated Melbourne Storm will go in 7.5-point home favourites against Newcastle on Friday night. The Storm have won 10 of 12 against Newcastle and are 10-2 in their last 12 against the Knights to go with an average winning margin of 21 points this year. But I fancy the Knights are hitting stride here and that this could be close. The Knights are 10-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons but have been bad at night, covering only 3 of their last 13. A lean on the Knights here but the night stat and Melbourne's form  worry me too much.

There is a monster under play here with two defensive teams squaring off. The Storm are 37-17 under over the last two years, 19-8 under as a home favourite and 24-14 under at night. The Knights are 18-9 under on the road and are 20-9 under since round one last year. Bet the under for 3 units if the total is 33 or bigger. 

COVER FORM: Melbourne 4-0 (WWWW), Newcastle 2-2 (LWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 2-2 (OUUO), Newcastle 0-4 (UUUU)

The Penrith-Cronulla has opened with the Panthers as a 3.5-point favourite. These two have split the last 10. There are no real situations here and this is very hard to get any kind of grip on. I'll be letting this go.

There is a slight over play which we will get on for 1 unit. Cronulla are 17-9 over on the road since 2010 while the Panthers are 14-6 over as a road favourite. Five of the last six between these two have totalled 46 or more. Bet over if the line is 43.5 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Penrith 2-2 (LWLW), Cronulla 3-1 (WLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 3-1 (OUOO), Cronulla 0-4 (UUUU)

The hapless Parramatta go in to their clash with Manly as an 8.5-point home underdog. The Eels have won 7 of 9 against the Sea Eagles and are 7-5 ATS as a home underdog over the last three years while Manly are 6-9 ATS on the road over the last two years and are just 10-11 ATS at night over the same time but there is no way I'm getting on Parramatta, who haven’t come close to covering this year. No bet.

No total play has presented itself either.  

COVER FORM: Parramatta 0-4 (LLLL), Manly 2-2 (WWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 3-1 (UOOO), Manly 2-2 (OOUU)

The New Zealand Warriors have lost only 2 of 11 against the Sydney Roosters and will go in 5.5-point road favourites. The Warriors are very good bets away (19-11 ATS), as a favourite (18-11 ATS) and at night (21-12 ATS). The Warriors are a better team and should win this. Play them for 1 unit.

There is a slight under play here. We will bet 1 unit on the under as the Warriors are 14-4 under in their last 18 at night while the Roosters are 9-6 under in their last 15. Bet if the line is 36.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Sydney Roosters 2-2 (WLWL), New Zealand 2-2 (LWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 2-2 (OUUO), New Zealand 3-1 (OOOU)

Gold Coast are 6.5-point outsiders in their clash with Canterbury at Skilled. I can't really get involved here with both halfbacks out, the Titans in disarray. I have a small lean on the Titans here but they can be bad at times and the Dogs looked awful without Trent Hodkinson. No bet.

There is a 2 unit under play here. The Titans are 11-2 under as a home underdog since 2010 while the Bulldogs are 7-3 under as a road favourite over the same time. With both teams without a halfback, this should be a real scrap. If the line is 36 or bigger, get on the under.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 1-3 (WLLL), Canterbury 3-1 (WWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 0-4 (UUUU), Canterbury 2-2 (OUOU)

Astonishingly enough considering their pre-season standing, the Wests Tigers are 2.5-point outsiders in their clash with South Sydney at the SFS. Despite the Tigers looking awful, I'll be taking the points this week. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS as an underdog the last two years and were 6-3 ATS when getting under a converted try. Souths have gone 6-11 ATS on the road since 2011. Not a great play but worth 1 unit.

I have a lean the under here but the Tigers have been very loose defensively. No bet.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 0-4 (LLLL), South Sydney 1-3 (LLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 3-1 (UOOO), South Sydney 2-2 (OUOU)

Canberra are 4-point faves in their Monday Night Football clash with North Queensland. All indicators say bet against Canberra at home and North Queensland on the road so this one goes through to the fullback.

No total play either with the Raiders an under team at night and the Cowboys an over side on the road.

COVER FORM: Canberra 2-2 (LWLW), Cowboys 2-2 (LWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 2-2 (OUUO), Cowboys 2-2 (UOOU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:St George Illawarra, Melbourne, Cronulla, Manly, New Zealand, Canterbury, Wests Tigers, Canberra

Recommended Bets:
2 units on Under (Bri-Dra) if line is 35.5 or bigger
3 units on Under (Mel-New) if line is 33 or bigger
1 unit on Over (Pen-Cro) if line is 43.5 or smaller
1 unit on New Zealand -5.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Roo-NZ) if line is 36.5 or bigger
2 units on Under (GC-Bul) if line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on Wests Tigers +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.91

Overall: 54 units bet for 67.66 units returned for a POT of 25.30%
Line: 20 units bet for 28.63 units returned for a POT of 43.15%
Total:34 units bet for 39.03 units returned for a POT of 14.79%


Comments (3)

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  1. Avoozl says:

    The Wests Tigers have blown out to +7.5. I guess it's because Farah got suspended. Any opinion on whether we should still take the bet, Nick?

    • Cliff Bingham says:

      Wests were +2.5 when it was known Farah was out, but the rumour now is that Benji Marshall won't play, hence the shift from +2.5 to +7.5. Nick may be better placed to comment, but the Tigers record in recent years when Benji was out is pretty toxic, so personally I'll be steering well clear of this game.

    • Nick Tedeschi says:

      Yeah mate, the move was a result of Benji not playing. Despite the talk from the Tigers camp, Benji won't show. And i don't want to be involved without Benji. Let it go pal.