The Early Line: Round 6

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on April 5, 2012

Canterbury have opened up 3.5-point favourites in their Good Friday clash with South Sydney at ANZ Stadium. I don't have any real interest in this one. Canterbury have been good this year but there are still question marks over the attack sans Trent Hodkinson and Souths really haven’t shown much all year.

There is no total here in this one either.

COVER FORM: Souths 1-4 (LLWLL), Canterbury 4-1 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 2-3 (OUOUU), Canterbury 3-2 (OUOUO)

The Wests Tigers go out 4.5-point home underdogs in their match with the Brisbane Broncos. I like the Broncos here. The Tigers have won only 4 of 19 all-time against the Broncos and Brisbane are the best away bet in the NRL, going 18-10 ATS on the road over the last three years. Over that same period the Broncos have gone 21-13 ATS as a favourite. The Tigers have been good as an underdog – 12-6 ATS since 2010 including a 5-1 ATS as a home dog – but they look like they will get smashed in the forwards. Bet Brisbane for 1.5 units.

We are going to have a 0.5 unit under play here. The Tigers are 5-1 under as a home underdog and 19-10 under at home over the last three years. Bet the under if the line is 37 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 1-4 (LLLLW), Brisbane 4-1 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 3-2 (UOOOU), Brisbane 2-3 (UOUUO)

What an awful game with the Gold Coast hosting the Sydney Roosters as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Titans have a 5-3 all-time record against the Roosters and the Roosters have lost all five games outside of NSW since 2010 by an average of 18.8 points. The Roosters are also a poor 1-5 ATS as a road favourite since the start of 2010. I'm not confident given the current environment at the Titans and the fact they have lost 10 of 11 at home but a small 0.5 unit play on the Titans is the go.

There is a 1.5 unit under play here. The Titans are 9-3 under as a home underdog since 2010 with the Roosters 19-10 under on the road. Play if the total is 37.5 or larger.

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 1-4 (WLLLL), Sydney Roosters 3-2 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast1-4 (UUUUO), Sydney Roosters 2-3 (OUUOU)

The St George Illawarra Dragons have opened up 2.5-point favourites in their local derby clash with Cronulla at Shark Park. The Dragons have won 5 of their last 6 against Cronulla but these two have split the last 12. My first reaction was to take the Dragons but they have been poor on the road in their last two and Cronulla have been an outstanding cover team. No bet.

I have to play the under here. The Sharks are 5-0 under this season and are 18-8 under in their last 26 at home while the Dragons are 24-13 under at night. Bet the under for 2 units if the line is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 4-1 (WLWWW), Dragons 3-2 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 0-5 (UUUUU), Dragons 2-3 (UUOUO)

Canberra have opened 1.5-point home underdogs in their clash with New Zealand on Easter Sunday. Despite the poor form of the Warriors, I think they are well placed against a Raiders team that is poorly coached and is incapable of playing from behind. The Warriors are 19-12 ATS on the road over the last three seasons while the Raiders are 9-18 ATS at home and are missing a host of big names. The Raiders are 1-10 ATS in the afternoon the last two seasons. Bet them for 2.5 units.

No total situation to bet here.

COVER FORM: Canberra 2-3 (LWLWL), New Zealand 2-3 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 2-3 (OUUOU), New Zealand 3-2 (OOOUU)

Newcastle have opened up 5.5-point favourites in their Sunday clash with Parramatta. The Knights have won 6 of their last 10 against the Eels and have covered 5 of their last 7 between the two. Parramatta are a poor team despite last week's win but the Knights are 3-9 ATS when favoured by less than a converted try. I still fancy the Knights but confidence has been sapped enough to only play for 0.5 units.

There is a slight under play here – Newcastle are 4-1 under this year – so will take for a 0.5 unit if the line is 38.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 2-3 (LWLWL), Parramatta 1-4 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 1-4 (UUUUO), Parramatta 4-1 (UOOOO)

North Queensland will go around 3.5-point home underdogs against Melbourne. The Cowboys are 16-11 ATS at home over the last three years but the Storm have won 8 of their last 9 against North Queensland and are 17-5 ATS as a favourite under a converted try. Bet the Storm for 1 unit but there is a concern that there forward pack may be a little one-dimensional without Sika Manu.

The Storm are 18-8 under on the road but the Cowboys are 3-0 over as a home underdog since 2011. No total.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 3-2 (LWWLW), Melbourne 5-0 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 2-3 (UOOUU), Melbourne 3-2 (OUUOO)

Manly go into Monday's clash with Penrith as a 6-point favourite. There is no real situation here other than Manly being well fancied at home, covering 17 of their last 28. The line seems a little big though for a team so out of nick. No play.

Penrith are 9-4 under as a road underdog over the last two years while the Eagles are 13-9 under at night over the same time. Bet the under for 1 unit if the line is 38.

COVER FORM: Manly 2-3 (WWLLL), Penrith 2-3 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 3-2 (OOUUO), Penrith 3-2 (OUOOU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Canterbury, Brisbane, Gold Coast, St George Illawarra, New Zealand, Newcastle, Melbourne, Manly

Recommended Bets:
1.5 units on Brisbane -4.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
0.5 units on Under (Tig-Bri) if the line is 37 or bigger
0.5 units on Gold Coast +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1.5 units on Under (GC-Roo) if the line is 37.5 or bigger
2 units on Under (Cro-Dra) if the line is 36 or bigger
2.5 units on New Zealand -1.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
0.5 units on Newcastle -5.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
0.5 units on Under (New-Par) if the line is 38.5 or bigger
1 unit on Melbourne -3.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under (Man-Pen) if the line is 38 or bigger

Overall: 65 units bet for 71.48 units returned for a POT of 9.96%
Line: 22 units bet for 30.54 units returned for a POT of 38.82%
Total: 43 units bet for 40.94 units returned for a POT of -4.79%



Comments (3)

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  1. mick k says:

    A few observations from the Souths-Bulldogs match:

    a) Adam Reynolds has been spending way too much time with Issac Luke.  Reynolds staying down to win a penalty after a marginally high shot which the referree called across the chest was very soft and a disgrace.  With players like Reynolds and Luke, Souths are anything but the "pride of the league".

    b) The NRL needs to look at reviewing the video for penalties when players stay down.  The days have passed when it was a badge of honour for players to get up after a heavy knock (legal or not). If 2 referees and 2 touch judges can't see it, play on.  No-one want to see a grand final decided by a flop.

    c) Bulldogs need Hodkinson back badly.  Keating can't organise a team, and someone needs to get in his ear about his kicking game.  Souths scored all their tries from bombs, but Keating insisted (even when down by 8) on stabbing the ball into the corner. 

    d) Ray Hadley gives me the sh*ts (well, I knew that already)

    e) Fullback is Inglis' best position – credit where it is due

    f) I'll have to keep a low profile at work to avoid our resident Rabbitohs supporter after the comments I've been making about them in the last 2 weeks after he talked up their premiership chances.

    • Keyboard Rambo says:

      I don't suppose you backed the Dogs Mick?

      • Avoozl says:

        I did an all nighter Tuesday and another all nighter last night waiting up for The Early Line 7. I may die from exhaustion soon! :)