The Early Line: Round 6

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on April 13, 2011

First up, a note. There will be a permanently standing bet here that any match affected by rain should have a 2 unit wager attached to it if the line is above 32, which it nearly sure will be. Bookies don't go low enough with wet games. Bet the under and rest easy knowing you have a significant edge.

The Parramatta Eels may well have won 8 of their last 9 against the Canterbury Bulldogs but the more telling statistic is that Parramatta have gone 9-20 ATS in their last 29 matches dating back to 2010. Only a sadist would bet the Eels.

Parramatta were particularly bad off a 5-day break in 2010, going 1-5 ATS off the short run while they have scored more than four tries only once in their last ten games. Two stats in their favour are a 6-5 record ATS as an underdog since 2010 and the fact they have responded to two of their last three 30-point losses by winning the following start.

The line has come up between 5 ½ and 6 and I have to lean towards Canterbury here. They have too much strikepower out wide. I think, if the passes stick, they will win by 13-plus but I am not confident enough to tip them so no bet.

In total points, both have been under teams over the last two years and Stephen Kearney will give the Eels a hard week on the bags and in the pit. A 1 ½ unit play on the under if the line is 40.5 or bigger is the recommended.

Cover Form: Parramatta WLLLL, Canterbury WWWLL

Over-Under Form: Parramatta UUOOU, Canterbury UOUOU


I am done with the Gold Coast Titans, at least for the meanwhile, and I certainly won't be backing them against the Wests Tigers, even at home with 1 ½ start where my numbers indicate they are again a play. Perhaps I need a new calculator.

The Tigers have won 3 of 5 against the Titans but the Gold Coast have won two straight at home. The Titans are good bets as an underdog but they have been so disappointing this year and I can't bet them without Laffranchi. The Tigers also cannot be touched. They were courageous last Friday but their massive injury toll is going to impact them soon enough.

I'll be tipping the Tigers but no bet here.

There will be another under play here though. Four of their last five have totalled less than 38, the Titans are 10-6 under at home since the beginning of last season and the Tigers are 20-12 under all-up over the same period of time.

Bet 2 ½ units the under if the line is 38.5 or larger. 

Cover Form:Gold Coast LLLWL, Wests Tigers LWWLW

Over-Under Form: Gold Coast UOOOU, Wests Tigers UUOUU


Manly have won 5 of their last 6 against New Zealand but have come up very short, opening 5 ½ to 6 ½ point favourites.

Considering their injury toll and suspect form this season, you simply cannot lay such a start with any confidence. Last year, when favoured by over a converted try, the Sea Eagles were an ordinary 2-5 ATS while as a home favourite since the beginning of last season, they are 5-8 against the line. The Warriors, however, have were sound bets in Australia, going 7-4 ATS here and 6-2 when given a start bigger than six.

The Warriors are playing themselves into form. Their big forwards might just have too much for a brittle Manly pack. Bet 2 units on the Warriors with 6 ½ start at Luxbet/Sports Alive.

Both these teams were over teams last season, both going 15-10 over yet both matches between these two finished under, totalling 35 and 20 respectively. Both these sides shape as greater under propositions this year. Play 1 ½ units on the Under if the lines is 40 or greater.

Cover Form: Manly LWWLW, New Zealand LLLWW

Over-Under Form: Manly UOUOU, New Zealand UUUOU


The Sydney Roosters have a shocking recent record against Brisbane, losing 8 of their last 11, and I get the distinct feeling that the Roosters may be shot. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the Roosters missed the eight this year. There are some pretty ordinary tales coming out of Bondi and the team is playing lazy, ill disciplined rugby league.

Compare that to Brisbane, who have not allowed a second half try this year. Anthony Griffin has the Broncs flying. Most shops are offering 4 points on Brisbane and that is play in their current form. I am still not 100% sold on them but I am fairly sure the Roosters are going to be the disappointment of 2012. Bet 1 ½ units on Brisbane with the points, who are 8-4 ATS as an underdog since the beginning of last season.

The bet of the weekend, however, will be the under. The Broncos are 5-0 under this year while the Roosters are 4-1 under, their only over coming against Souths. This has the real feel of a grinding affair. Play 3 units on the under if the line is 38 or bigger.

Cover Form:Sydney Roosters WLWWL, Brisbane LWWLW

Over-Under Form: Sydney Roosters OUUUU, Brisbane UUUUU


A wild bull could not drag me into a bet in this match between North Queensland and Canberra.

The Cowboys may have found some form, going 4-1 ATS this year, while Canberra have lost four straight and have been bitter disappointments. While I am thrilled Matt Orford has a “back injury”, no Josh Dugan means I can’t look into the 4 ½ to 5 ½ start on offer for the Raiders. I feel an upset is on the cards but I can’t lay any cash down.

No total play. I lean toward an over play based on recent form but history says under.

Cover Form:North Queensland WLWWW, Canberra WLLLL

Over-Under Form: North Queensland UOOOU, Canberra OUOOO


Interestingly enough, the Cronulla Sharks are 0-7 ATS in daytime matches over the last two seasons. That is appalling and is the one reason I am recommending a small 1 unit play on the Newcastle Knights giving 6 ½ points.

Newcastle are an honest team but I’m not sure how they will react after an interesting week while the depth of their pack at the moment is also a worry compared to the strong Sharks outfit. But that daytime record has me pretty keen to be against them.

No total play.

Cover Form: Newcastle WWLWL, Cronulla LWWLL

Over-Under Form: Newcastle OOUUU, Cronulla OUOOU


My inclination is to bet  Melbourne as a road favourite against  Penrith, the Storm having won seven straight against the hapless Panthers, who were only given some respite through an even more hapless Raiders last week.

I am not sure about the Storm on the road though. They have a young team and they did get into some bad habits on the road in 2010. This year, they have played 4 of 5 at home and away, they were towelled by the Cowboys though there were some pretty strong rumours about that match and who was betting.

The line is 5 ½ to 6 and though I am nearly at Melbourne, though those lingering doubts combined with the record of home dogs over the last two years is 44-32 ATS (8-7 ATS in 2011, though that real number is 7-4 ATS based on actual home records like Souths-Canterbury playing at ANZ) has me gun shy.

Cover Form:Penrith LWLWW, Melbourne WWLWW

Over-Under Form: Penrith OUOUO, Melbourne UOOOU


The St George-Illawarra Dragons hold a 13-3 all-time record against South Sydney and I expect that record will be extended on Monday night.

I said in the pre-season that Souths were a team of impostors and nothing has changed my mind on that, least of all the play of John Sutton.

The Dragons have opened 6 ½ point favourites and in stride, should belt the Bunnies, whose reliance on high scoring will not serve them well here.

2 units on the Dragons spotting 6 ½ points.

Cover Form:South Sydney LLWWL, St George-Illawarra WLWLW

Over-Under Form: South Sydney OOOOU, St George-Illawarra OUUUU


1.5 units on Under (Canterbury-Parramatta) if line is 40.5 or bigger
2.5 units on Under (Gold Coast-Wests Tigers) if line is 38.5 or bigger
2 units on New Zealand +6.5 at $1.91 at Luxbet/Sports Alive
1.5 units on Under (Manly-New Zealand) if line is 40 or bigger
1.5 units on Brisbane +4 at $1.91 at Sportsbet/Sportingbet/IAS
3 units on Under (Roosters-Brisbane) if line is 38 or bigger
1 unit on Newcastle -6.5 at $1.91 at Sportsbet/IAS
2 units on St George-Illawarra -6.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet


Round          Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                   0.95                             -0.45
2                   6          6                     0.92                             -5.08
3                   7         11                    7.38                             -3.62
4                   8         13                    16.51                           +3.51
5                  10        16                   13.15                           -2.85

Total             Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned          +/-

                        34         47.5               38.91                         -8.59




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Comments (3)

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  1. Schitty says:

    "Todd Tandy"…That was the sh!ttest sh!t I have ever seen…Can't afford to be losing those games with the injuries they have. Unders was a good play though…

  2. Redman says:

    Please, please, PLEASE – can you retract your "I am done with the Gold Coast Titans" comments?? I want my Tigers to win and if you're the Terry Kennedy of the WWnet, DON'T back the Tigers!! PLEASE!! 😉