The Early Line: Round 7

Filed in The Early Line by on April 12, 2012

St George Illawarra will go into their clash with Newcastle as 4-point favourites. There is the slightest of leans the Dragons here as they are 19-10 ATS at home over the last three years and they have won 9 of their last 10 at Kogarah. Wayne Bennett also has a poor 2-6 record against his former teams since leaving the Broncos. The line is probably about right. No bet.

There is a 3 unit play on the under though if the line is 32 or above. This has all the hallmarks of a defensive struggle. The Knights are 5-1 under this year while the Dragons are 4-2 under. A total of 4 of the last 8 between these two have totalled less than 30 and none of those matches tallied above 44. The Dragons have allowed three tries only three times in the last 14 games at Kogarah. The Knights are 18-10 under on the road since 2010 while the Dragons are 39-20 under over the same time.

COVER FORM: Dragons 3-3 (LWWLL), Newcastle 3-3 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 2-4 (UOUOU), Newcastle 1-5 (UUUOU)

Brisbane are favoured by 6.5 to 7 points in their clash with Canberra on Friday night. The Broncos have won 12 of 18 against the Raiders and 6 of 7 at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos are also 17-11 ATS at home since 2010 while the Raiders over the same timeframe have been 10-18 ATS on the road and 3-8 ATS interstate. Play Brisbane for 2 units.

There is a 1 unit under play if the line is 38 or better. The Raiders are 7-1 under as an interstate underdog and 21-12 under at night. With the Broncos 8-5 under as a home favourite over the last two seasons, it may be worth playing the under.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 4-2 (LWWWL), Canberra 3-3 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 2-4 (OUUOU), Canberra 3-3 (UUOUO)

Melbourne have opened up big 9.5-point favourites in their clash with Canterbury at AAMI Park. All the talk is that Canterbury will present the Storm with their biggest test but the Storm have the firepower to whack the Bulldogs and cover the big start. The Storm have covered every game this year, winning by an average margin of 20 points. They have won 20 of 23 at AAMI Park and are 19-10 ATS at home over the last three years, 32-17 ATS as a favourite and 19-9 ATS as a home favourite. The Bulldogs are 5-10 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons and have lost five straight in Melbourne. Take the Storm for 2 units.

There appears to have been a fundamental readjustment in the way the Storm go about their business, throwing the ball around more rather than grinding out wins. That makes total points betting a little difficult here. No play.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 6-0 (WWWWW), Canterbury 4-2 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 4-2 (UUOOO), Canterbury 3-3 (UOUOU)

The Sydney Roosters and North Queensland play in Darwin with the Cowboys jumping 2.5-point favourites. The Roosters sit higher on the ladder than the Cowboys but North Queensland have a far stronger team, particularly with Kalifa Faifai-Loa getting a go on the wing. The Roosters are 5-10 ATS on the road over the last two seasons while the Cowboys are 8-7 ATS on the road. Let’s have a 1 unit bet on the minus.

The Roosters are 20-10 under on the road the last three years but no total here.

COVER FORM: Sydney Roosters 4-2 (LWLWW), Cowboys 3-3 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 2-4 (UUOUU), Cowboys 3-3 (OOUUO)

Manly will jump 12.5 to 13 point favourites in their clash with the Gold Coast at Brookvale Oval, where they have won 11 straight. The Sea Eagles have a 5-3 all-time edge in this match-up and are 17-11 ATS at home but this line is a little big, particularly with Brett Stewart and Kieran Foran in doubt.

No total play in this one.

COVER FORM: Manly 3-3 (WLLLW), Gold Coast 1-5 (LLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 3-3 (OUUOU), Gold Coast 1-5 (UUUOU)

Despite stumbling to a 2-4 record, the New Zealand Warriors will go into their clash with South Sydney as 4 to 4.5 point favourites. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 19 against South Sydney but the Bunnies have collected the points in 4 of the last 7 meetings. The Warriors are 15-12 ATS at home over the last three years but there is no bet here in the most difficult game of the week to assess.

Souths have gone 13-5 over when a road underdog the last three years and the Warriors are 10-5 over playing in the day since 2011. Bet 1 unit on the over if the line is 44 or lower.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 2-4 (WLWLL), Souths 2-4 (LWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 4-2 (OOUUO), Souths 2-4 (UOUUU)

Cronulla will go about 5.5 to 6 point favourites in their clash against battlers Parramatta on Sunday afternoon. The Sharks have won 5 of their last 7 against Parramatta and the Eels have lost 11 of 12 on the road. I'm loving the Sharks at the moment and they should get the money but this is a bit of a trap game. No bet.

There is a 1.5 unit under play here if the total is 34.5 or bigger. Cronulla are 6-0 under this year while the Eels are 7-2 under as a road underdog in their last nine.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 5-1 (LWWWW), Parramatta 1-5 (LLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 0-6 (UUUUU), Parramatta 4-2 (OOOOU)

Penrith are getting 4 to 4.5 points at home against the Wests Tigers on Sunday afternoon. I'll be taking the points against a hopeless Tigers outfit who are incredibly weak through the middle. The Tigers have won three straight against Penrith but while no situations present themselves, this looks a top bet.

There is no total here though the lean is on the over.

COVER FORM: Penrith 2-4 (WLWLL), Tigers 2-4 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 3-3 (UOOUU), Tigers 3-3 (OOOUU)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:St George Illawarra, Brisbane, Melbourne, North Queensland, Manly, New Zealand, Cronulla, Penrith

Recommended Bets:
3 units on Under (Dra-New) if total is 32 or bigger
2 units on Brisbane -6.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on Under (Bri-Can) if total is 38 or bigger
2 units on Melbourne -9.5 at $1.91 at Luxbet
1 unit on North Queensland -2.5 at $1.91 at Luxbet
1 unit on Over (NZ-Sou) if total is 44 or lower
1.5 units on Under (Cro-Par) of total is 34.5 or bigger
1 unit on Penrith +4.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet

Overall:76.5 units bet for 84.80 units returned for a POT of 10.85%
Line:28 units bet for 33.41 units returned for a POT of 19.32%
Total: 48.5 units bet for 51.39 units returned for a POT of 5.96%



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