The Early Line: Round 8

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on April 29, 2011

Apologies but I don’t have time to fully write off every game this week. I’ve provided the form of each team and the recommended bets and a quick line for each game.

Both Canterbury and Brisbane have been great bets this year. I lean towards the plsu 2.5 but Brisbane are playing too well to bet against at present.

A defnite under bet exists here if the line is 38 or bigger. Canterbury tend to play the style of their opponent and Brisbane are a definite under team. 2.5 units.

Cover Form:Brisbane 5-2 (WLWWW), Canterbury 5-2 (WLLWW)
Over-Under Form:Brisbane 1-6 (UUUUO), Canterbury 4-3 (UOUOO)


Souths should win but the Sharks pack may make this a wrestle, a wrestle they should win. No bet.

Cover Form:South Sydney 2-5 (WWLLL), Cronulla 3-4 (WLLWL)
Over-Under Form: South Sydney5-2 (OOUUO), Cronulla 5-2 (OOUOO)


The Roosters were an outstanding interstate team last year, going 3-1 against the line while the Titans are a losing team as a favourite. The Roosters also won here last year when going horribly in a shock result. Bet 2 units +2.

No total play.

Cover Form: Gold Coast 2-5 (LWLWL), Sydney Roosters 3-4 (WWLLL)
Over-Under Form: Gold Coast 4-3 (OOUUO), Sydney Roosters 2-5 (UUUUO)


Melbourne haven't lost two straight at home since early 2005 and have won 11 of 15 against Newcastle. The Storm had their vulnerabilities exploited on Monday but the Knights don't have the pack to shake Melbourne up. Bet 1 unit Melbourne -6.5.

Cover Form: Melbourne 5-2 (LWWWL), Newcastle 4-3 (LWLLW)
Over-Under Form: Melbourne3-4 (OOUUU), Newcastle 3-4 (UUUOU)


The Cowboys are a team to bet with this year but Manly are plucky and go well against the Cowboys. No bet.

Cover Form:North Queensland 6-1 (WWWWW), 4-3 (WLWWL)
Over-Under Form: North Queensland5-2 (OOUOO), Manly 2-5 (UOUUU)


Penrith are going to get smacked here. They are a club divided and the Warriors are riding high. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Zealand win by 30. The Warriors were 7-4 as a home fave last year too and are 1-1 at Mt Smart this year. 3 units -6 on the Warriors.

Seven of the last ten have totalled 50 or more. Expect plenty of points. 2 units over if line is 46.5 or lower.

Cover Form: New Zealand3-4 (LWWLW), Penrith 4-3 (LWWLW)
Over-Under Form:New Zealand 1-6 (UOUUU), Penrith 3-4 (OUOUU)


Benji has never lost to Canberra and that is enough to try them against a hapless Raiders outfit.

Cover Form:Canberra 1-6 (LLLLL), Wests Tigers 3-4 (WLWLL)

Over-Under Form: Canberra5-2 (OOOOU), Wests Tigers 2-5 (OUUUO)


The Dragons are going to thump the Eels. Parra are going to struggle to score a point. The Dragons have won 4 of 5 against Parra. Bet 2 units -14.5 on the Dragons.

With Parra unlikely to score many points, have a big crack at the under. Three units if the line is 38.5 or bigger.

Cover Form:St George-Illawarra 5-2 (WLWWW), Parramatta 2-5 (LLLLW)

Over-Under Form: St George-Illawarra 2-5 (UUUU), Parramatta 4-3 (OOUOO)


2.5 units Under (Brisbane-Canterbury) if line is bigger than 38
2 units Sydney Roosters +2 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit Melbourne -6.5 at Luxbet, Sportingbet at $1.91
3 units on New Zealand -6 at Centrebet at $1.92
2 units Over (New Zealand-Penrith) if line is smaller than 46.5
1 unit on Wests Tigers +1.5 at Sports Alive at $1.92
2 units on St George-Illawarra -14.5 at most bookmakers at $1.91
3 units on Under (St George-Illawarra-Parramatta) if line is bigger than 38.5


Round          Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                   0.95                             -0.45
2                   6          6                     0.92                             -5.08
3                   7         11                    7.38                             -3.62
4                   8         13                   16.51                           +3.51
5                  10        16                   13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5                19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                   11.66                           -3.34                  

Total             Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     50       77                   70.17                            -6.83


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