The Fantasy King: Round 1
The release of team lists for round one on Tuesday kicked off the most important two days of the year for fantasy players, the last chance to take advantage of unlimited trades before the round one lockout commences. As always, there are a few surprises, and I for one have had to do a lot of scrambling to get everything in place before the season begins.
THE BIG GUNS
All the usual suspects have been named (minus Jarryd Hayne) leaving only the question of which ones to take.
Gallen/Parker
Obviously, they must be in your team. The common strategy is to pick these two first and build your team around them. For the past couple of years however, I have omitted them from my initial 25, and picking cheaper players, putting away a bit of a war chest to splurge on these big guns if/when their prices go down. Bear in mind that Parker’s break even is 97 and Gallen’s is 85. Both have had injury niggles in the preseason, both are a year older and both play in teams with strong competition for back row minutes. I think a price decrease is almost certain, and I’ll be ready to pounce when it occurs.
Hindmarsh
Like most leaguies, I’m a massive fan of Hindy. However, he burns me every year, fantasy-wise. In 2010 I omitted him, thinking that he’s getting on a bit and will surely have his workload lightened at some point, only to watch him tackle his sizeable arse off as his scores went through the roof. Last year, determined to learn from my mistakes, he was one of the first players I picked. I suffered for half a season of fifty and sixty point scores as his playing minutes dropped dramatically. As soon as I sold him, he went back to 80 minutes and 80 plus scores. This year I didn’t buy him. So you probably should.
Thurston/Smith
Both the most expensive players in their respective positions, but with achievable break evens you probably won’t get them much cheaper until after Origin. Bite the bullet and pick them up.
THE MONEY SPINNERS
Here is where things get pretty interesting….
Matt Srama
One of the rookie buys of the year last season, the 270k he’ll set you back this year isn’t nearly as appetising. However, with the departure of Nathan Friend and pre-season injury to South Sydney recruit Beau Falloon, it seemed Srama would have little competition for the Titans nine jersey. And as a hard worker who also got big attacking points, it seemed a no brainer to snap him up in the front row. His demotion to the bench in place of one-gamer Kayne Lawton, although motivated in part no doubt by the fact that Srama’s shoulder injury has prevented him from playing a game this year, muddies the water significantly. While I’m sure he’ll be back as a starter before long, I just can’t take a risk on him. SOLD.
Neville Costigan
Very effective in the front row for the Dragons and at the Knights last year, Costigan’s fantasy scores haven’t often reflected his talent. He has been named at lock for the Round One clash with his old club, and at just $185 000 (Break even 37) the increased game time he should receive makes him a potentially great buy in the front row. I don’t think for a second he’ll rise to become a top shelf player, but if he can get up to 250k or so he’s done his job.
Dene Halatau
Absolutely killed it when given a good run last season, and available as a wing/centre again this year. I didn’t pick him up at first, unsure of what Hasler had in mind, but he’s starting at lock at only 175k. Could be one of the buys of the year.
James Graham
I had already decided against buying him when his opening price was revealed to be 270k. This is by no means the steal Sam Burgess was when he joined the NRL a few years ago, and what’s more Graham can’t play second row like Burgess. His selection on the bench for the Dogs this weekend confirmed my position.
ROOKIE ROUND UP
There’s not too much to add here. If names like Konrad Hurrell, Adam Reynolds and Tautau Moga mean nothing to you, you’re not ready for fantasy. Highly rated Tigers prospect James Tedesco was selected at fullback, although there remains some speculation as to whether he’ll end up playing. Regardless, any serious fantasy player should own all $87500 rookies playing this weekend. Moga’s injury raises an interesting question though. Do you leave him out until he gets a game, in the meantime making some money off another player who was named for round one? Personally, I value trades more than any cash I could make in such a transaction. I tend to get greedy and impatient with my trades, a mistake I am determined to rectify this year. So I’m prepared to wait for Moga to come good.
Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images AsiaPac
