The Forgive Files – March 23
This week’s edition of The Forgive Files takes us to the March 23 meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill.
Caulfield
Second King: Stretching the usual rules about only looking at the unplaced runners here (Second King ran third), but it bears noting that he continues to present his best winning form when fresh (despite typically running over the mile to middle distance range). He has recorded five wins and two placings from 10 starts when first or second-up, compared to just the one win and five placings from 15 starts thereafter. Generally speaking, horses who win over the 1400-2000 metre range are best left until they are third or fourth-up, but he is an exception to the rule.
Smokin’ Joey: He rattled home from the tail of the field (14that the 400-metre mark) in a race where the first two horses home raced on the speed. Given that he carried 59.5 kilos and has only won one race from 13 attempts when first or second-up (compared to three wins from 13 races thereafter), it was an excellent effort and he can be backed in a couple of runs time, perhaps over 1400 metres.
Rosehill
Didntcostalot: While 1100 metres is his preferred trip, he now has five starts at Rosehill for no wins and two placings, compared to five wins and one placing from 11 starts at all other tracks. Just as important though is the comparison of his results when fresh to those of his later starts in each preparation. He was third-up yesterday and now has one win from eight starts when third-up or later, compared to four wins from eight starts when either first or second-up. He can be backed again when next resuming at a different course.
Steps In Time: She was only caught very late in the race, highlighting that is probably her limit in terms of an ideal distance range for winning at the elite level. Nonetheless, her effort to cross from a wide barrier with 57.5 kilos and be beaten less than a length was about as good an effort as you could ask from an unplaced run. Hopefully she drops back slightly in distance for any subsequent races this preparation.
Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
