The NFL Lines – Conference Championships

It’s Conference Championship week in the NFL – New England host Baltimore in the AFC Championship match, while Atlanta host San Francisco in the battle for the NFC crown. With the Super Bowl inching ever closer, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham assess the second-to-last weekend of matches for the season.

Results from Divisional Round

NT – 1 selection, 1 unit bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%

CB – 2selections, 2 units bet, return of 2.04 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +2%

Total – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 2.04 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -32%

Overall Results

NT – 67 selections, 75.5 units bet, return of 74.73 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -1%

CB – 47 selections, 45.5 units bet, return of 37.47 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -18%

Total – 114 selections, 121 units bet, return of 112.20 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -7%

 

NT Recommended Bets

SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 AT $1.88 (LUXBET)

With John Abraham injured, I'm not entirely sure how the Atlanta Falcons are going to contain Colin Kaepernick, who turned in one of the great quarterback performances in NFL playoff history against Green Bay. When the Falcons dominated the Seahawks early, it was because they managed to run the clock. That won't happen against a 49ers defence that is magnificent against the run and has one of the top pass rushes in the game. When Russell Wilson started seeing some ball against a quickly tiring defence, he tore the Falcons to shreds. C-Kap can do the same. I don't think this is close. The 49ers should win this by a couple of touchdowns.

BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE +9.5 @ $1.82 (IAS)

The last time New England defeated Baltimore by more than six points was in 2004. The two teams have met six times since then: Baltimore have won twice (including this year) with the Pats winning three by just a field goal. The Pats are scared of the Ravens and with good reason: the Ravens play a style that can roll them. Baltimore's ability to go deep should worry the shaky Pats secondary while the Ravens pass rush will test the Patriots O-line. This is going to be close. The points are too plentiful to resist.

 

CB Recommended Bets

BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE +9.5 @ $1.82 (IAS)

I covered this ground last week, but it warrants repeating.

Green Bay in the last two seasons: a combined 1-5 against the Niners, Giants and Seahawks (they haven’t played the Ravens); a combined 26-3 against everyone else.

New England in the last two seasons: a combined 1-5 against the Ravens, Niners, Giants and Seahawks; a combined 27-3 against everyone else.

You need a certain type of team to beat the Patriots (or for that matter, the Packers). The Ravens have such a team. They should have beaten the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in last year’s AFC Championship game. They did win convincingly at Gillette in a 2009 wild card playoff game, and came from behind to beat the Patriots at Baltimore earlier this season. This line could drop to six and I’d still want to take the points – 9.5 makes for a great bet.

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo