The NFL Lines – Super Bowl

Filed in NFL, NFL Tips by on January 29, 2013

It all comes down to this – the Baltimore Ravens (under John Harbaugh) taking on the San Francisco 49ers (under Jim Harbaugh) in the Super Bowl. Pensive Niners fan Nick Tedeschi and downtrodden Bills fan Cliff Bingham return to lay down the verdicts for ‘The Big Dance’.

Results from Conference Championships

NT – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 3.70 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +85%

CB – 1selection, 1 unit bet, return of 1.82 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +82%

Total – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 5.52 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +84%

Overall Results

NT – 69 selections, 77.5 units bet, return of 78.43 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +1%

CB – 48 selections, 46.5 units bet, return of 39.29 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -16%

Total – 117 selections, 124 units bet, return of 117.72 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -5%


NT Recommended Bets


Perhaps this is the heart speaking over the head but the Niners look well placed to win their sixth Super Bowl and by a good margin. Matchup wise, this looks a no-contest. The Ravens love to run the ball – the Niners stop the run better than any other team. The Ravens have an aging defence, particularly up the middle – Colin Kaepernick can open up defences right through the middle. The only edge the Ravens get is Flacco’s ability to take advantage of San Fran’s relatively poor secondary. The public is backing Baltimore – and the Ravens have won the three matchups since ’96 – but the 49ers are a much better team. In what should be a high scorer, the Niners can cover and lift that Lombardi Trophy for the first time in 18 years.


CB Recommended Bets


On a number of levels, it’s easy to like the Niners here. They gain more yards per carry (and concede fewer runs per carry) than the Ravens. They gain more yards per passing attempt and concede fewer yards per passing attempt. They have a higher QB rating and a lower QB rating conceded. These things all point to the line for the match being closer to six. However, as we saw with the demise of the Packers and Patriots, match-ups matter. To wit:

Ravens in last 2 seasons against Niners, Giants, Seahawks and Steelers: 5 wins, 2 losses, average of 22.4 points scored and 14.6 points conceded.

Niners in last 2 seasons against Ravens, Giants, Seahawks and Steelers: 5 wins, 4 losses, average of 16.8 points scored and 18.6 points conceded.

Hmmm… those statistics just enough to suggest this match-up isn’t all it’s cracked up to be for the Niners and say me away from the minus. They do, however, lend themselves to an alternative bet.

In the seven aforementioned Ravens’ matches, only one did the total break 43 (47 v Giants this season). In the nine aforementioned Niners’ matches, only three exceeded 43 total points (47 v Giants in 2011, 50 v Seahawks in 2011, 55 v Seahawks this season). With a line of 47.5 points in play here, I’m happy to repeat the strategy from last year’s Super Bowl and bet the under.


Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo


Comments (1)

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  1. SemiiPro says:

    If you care to look back to the NFL preview you guys did at the start of the season, Semiipro did pick Frisco to win it all. But Semiipro did not back them. When Semiipro picks a team and doesn’t back them, there is a 99% chance they will win. If he does back a team, the chances that team wins is around 1%. Semiipro lore.

    True story