The NFL Lines – Week 10
Eli Manning bested Tom Brady once again, the Jets brought themselves right back into the AFC East debate, the Dolphins potentially tore up their Andrew Luck sweepstakes ticket with a win and the Niners keep on rolling in the West as though it were 1992. What does week 10 of the NFL season hold in store? Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham try to figure it out.
CB – Alright then, we’re back in business! I’m glad that week 10 went well after a couple of tougher weeks, particularly as the lines for the upcoming suite of fixtures does not look appetising at all.
Summary of Week 9 results
NT – 6 selections, 10.5 units bet, return of 16.87 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 61%
CB – 4 selections, 5 units bet, return of 6.50 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 30%
Total – 10 selections, 15.5 units bet, return of 23.37 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 51%
Summary of Overall results
NT – 48 selections, 70.5 units bet, return of 60.18 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -15%
CB – 30 selections, 37.5 units bet, return of 40.99 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 9%
Total – 78 selections, 108 units bet, return of 101.17 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -6%
Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!
(Please note – all times are American ‘Eastern Time’ – add 16 hours to get to AEDST)
Thursday
Oakland at San Diego, 8.20 pm
Bookmakers’ line: San Diego -6.5 to -7
NT – Thursday Night Football returns with this battle for the AFC West lead. The Chargers cannot be trusted. They are poorly coached and the players know it. The Packers could have been beaten with a little discipline but San Diego, of course, blew it with reckless offensive plays. I have a lean towards the plus with the Raiders covering their last four against the Chargers but I am not backing a team coming off losses to Kansas City and Denver.
CB – On paper, this is a game that the Chargers simply must win and win well. Yet they come in here on a 3-game losing streak and their most convincing win of the season was only a 26-16 victory over the Dolphins at home. I can’t trust them at this stage.
Sunday
New Orleans at Atlanta, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Atlanta 0 to +1
NT – The Saints are a better team than the Falcons but they have lost two straight on the road to the Bucs and Rams and Julio Jones could cause the Saints’ secondary trouble. A slight lean on the plus here but no play.
CB – At the risk of briefly becoming the Troy Aikman to your Joe Buck here, you’re absolutely right Nick. New Orleans are the better team but currently have the wobbles on the road, bringing the offered line back to a position that has me very marginally leaning to Atlanta (I had them marked 1 point faves) but not enough to have a bet.
Houston at Tampa Bay, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Tampa Bay +3 to +3.5
NT – At first glance, this looked a definite play for the Buccaneers. They have been around the mark most of the year and have won three of four at home but the Texans’ defence has been really impressive. I can’t recommend a bet this game.
CB – Swap the home field around and Houston would be laying 9 to 9.5 points in this game. Which is truly bizarre when you consider that (a) Houston laid 11 points to Cleveland, a much worse team than Tampa) and (b) Tampa received 8 points from New Orleans, who are better (at least in my mind) than the Texans. I’d want Tampa +9 or 9.5 if the game were in Houston, so therefore I will have 1.5 units on the Bucs +3.5 at home – even though their run defence against Arian Foster and Ben Tate scares me.
Arizona at Philadelphia, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: TBA
NT – There is a question mark over who will start at quarterback for the Cards so no line out yet. The Eagles should win by plenty with this line forecast to come up around -13.
CB – Kevin Kolb or John Skelton heading east for a 1:00pm ET game against a dangerous secondary when the Cards are 0-4 on the road? No thanks. Laying double digits about a horrendously underachieving 3-5 side? Again, no thanks.
Washington at Miami, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Miami -3.5 to -4
NT – The Dolphins are 1-12 straight up and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at home. The Redskins cannot score. I doubt even a nut like John Madden would watch this.
CB – If Miami aren’t careful, they’ll win another game here against an injury-ravaged Redskins lineup and all but rule themselves out of the race for Andrew Luck in 2012. This promises to be an awful game that should not be watched or bet on under any circumstances.
Tennessee at Carolina, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carolina -3
NT – The Titans without Kenny Britt just look flat and despite all the hullaballoo around Carolina, they have won only twice. I would probably bet the Panthers here if forced too but I am not one ready to get on my knees for Cam Newton.
CB – It’s fun to watch Cam Newton and the Panthers play, whilst it’s little to no fun to watch Matt Hasselbeck and the guy who used to be Chris Johnson for the Titans. Carolina have the worse of the two records in 2011 (2-6, compared to 4-4 for Tennessee) but have also faced a tougher schedule thus far. The line feels about right to me – no play.
Detroit at Chicago, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Chicago -2.5 to -3
NT – The Bears continue to prove underrated by the betting public, even after their impressive win against the Eagles in Philly. The Bears have looked very good since changing their offensive line and moving to a quick passing game and they can get the Lions are home. Bet 1 unit on the Bears.
CB – I’ve been hitched to the ‘Bears are underrated’ bandwagon for much of the year (as evidenced by the fact I’ve backed them four times already in 2011 for this column), but I think this line is very marginally in favour of Detroit. Don’t forget that the Lions handled Chicago well in week 5 at home, albeit that their running game has suffered injury concerns in the interim. No play for me.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Cincinnati +3
NT – For all the positive things being said about the Bengals, they are 6-2 because they have a decent defence and the easiest first-half draw of any team in the NFL. The Steelers are a much stronger team and coming off a brutal loss to Baltimore they will be well focused. Pittsburgh have covered 7 of 9 against the Bengals and should make the number this week. Bet 1.5 units on the Steelers giving 3.
CB – I actually have a very slight lean to the plus here. Yes, the Bengals have had a cheap draw in many respects, but they’ve also played 5 road games already. The only pertinent form references we can draw for them were home matches against the Niners (lost 13-8) and Buffalo (won 23-20). I certainly wouldn’t want to lay 9 points to a 6-2 side if this game were in Pittsburgh, and therefore can’t lay 3 points in Cincinnati. No play.
St Louis at Cleveland, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Cleveland -2.5 to -3
NT – And in what may be the worst game of the year … no bet.
CB – Pre-season, I tipped these two sides to win a combined 19 games in 2011. They’ll be lucky to reach half of that total. Writing tips for a website is a humbling experience, folks. I’m certainly not going to throw good money after bad by wagering in this game.
Buffalo at Dallas, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Dallas -5.5
NT – The Bills can score a lot of points and Dallas can allow them. The Cowboys have struggled in their last two and there are serious questions about how good they are. In a critical game for both teams, bet the Bills for 1 unit. Fred Jackson will create issues for the Cowboys’ deficiencies at linebacker.
CB – A dangerous tipping point in the 2011 season for my Bills here. Only 1-2 on the road so far this season and having conceded 23 or more points in 6 out of 8 matches to date, the two massive home comebacks against Oakland and New England seem a fading memory already. That said, Dallas appear somewhat star-crossed yet again this year, having already played 5 games that were decided by 4 points or less. With Miles Austin’s injury hurting the Cowboys passing attack, 1 unit on the Bills +5.5 is the play.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Indianapolis +3
NT – The Colts have covered just twice this year and both when getting a double figure number. They won’t win a game this year unless Peyton Manning comes back in order to try and save his Colts agree by taking them out of the running for Andrew Luck. The Jags played two bottlers before the bye and should get the job done in Indianapolis. Bet 2 units on the Jags giving 3.
CB – The Jags are playing with some heart and energy, which is more than can be said for the insipid Colts. With Peyton Manning’s neck injury and advancing years an ongoing concern, Indy are doing exactly what they should do in this situation – charging towards an 0-16 record and the arrival of Andrew Luck. Suffice to say, backing them at any point this season is a bad idea. Nonetheless, do you really want to back a road favourite with a 2-6 record? I don’t. Pass.
Denver at Kansas City, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Kansas City -3 to -3.5
NT – Bookmakers have no idea what to do with this and neither do I. I would bet the plus with a gun to my head but Tim Tebow still has too much downside. No play.
CB – What the hell was that from the Chiefs last week? You have a chance to take the lead in the AFC West after starting 0-3 and you blow it at home (Arrowhead providing one of the greater home field advantages in the league, no less) against a 0-7 side with no incentive to play well. I’m imposing betting sanctions on all AFC West teams until any of them can prove a base level of competency.
Baltimore at Seattle, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Seattle +6.5
NT – The Ravens were much improved last week against the Steelers but they have looked dicey against teams they should hammer. No play.
CB – How much does that road win against the Giants stick out on the Seahawks’ 2011 record, with putridity reigning supreme in the periods before and since? Everyone else who took the Giants at the minus that day should still be bitter as well. Anyway, I don’t care if their home field advantage is perhaps the greatest in the league. Seattle stinks, particularly on offense (their worst six games have only yielded 64 points in total), and the Ravens thrive on teams who are partial to turning the ball over. Nonetheless, my ‘double digit fave in you swapped the home teams’ corollary is in place here, so no bet.
NY Giants at San Francisco, 4.15 pm
Bookmakers’ line: San Francisco -3.5
NT – The Niners have not been a losing proposition for punters all year and they are going to be very difficult to beat at home but the number looks right here. The Niners defence should cause Eli Manning plenty of grief but there are health concerns over Frank Gore.
CB – Since opening week, the Giants are 6-1 on the season with the one loss coming against Seattle at home (excuse me while I go and pour yet another scotch). Meanwhile, the Niners are only a late week 2 flameout against Dallas from being undefeated this year. A cracking matchup, and one where I struggle to split the teams significantly on ability, thus the 3.5 point start to the home teams seems about right.
New England at NY Jets, 8.20 pm
Bookmakers’ line: NY Jets -1 to -2
NT – The Patriots have been exposed in their secondary and don't think for a second that their arch-rivals, the New York Jets, won't be there to take advantage of it. When these two met in week 5, the Jets made the mistake of playing conservative. Expect Mark Sanchez to be given some rein this week. Play the Jets for 1.5 units.
CB – The Jets looked to get a little of their old groove back last week and with the Patriots stumbling in consecutive weeks against tough opponents (Pittsburgh and NY Giants respectively), the AFC East divisional title door is well and truly open again. I was hoping that the Jets would come up small underdogs so that I could happily stay in their corner for yet another week, but with them coming up as small favourites I’ll pass on this game.
Monday
Minnesota at Green Bay, 8.30 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Green Bay -14
NT – The Packers have covered 13 of their last 16 at home and are undefeated this year. The Vikings are going to be stretched keeping pace with the all-conquering Packers. Minnesota's secondary is particularly vulnerable. If Green Bay want to win by 30 here, they will. Bet 1 unit on the Packers giving 13.
CB – A tough gig for Christian Ponder – his first starting match was against the Packers in week 7, and he gets them again in his third career start this week. The Packers’ defensive unit has been exposed a couple of times this year but at home, do you really want to take them on? I didn’t think so. No bet.
Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!
Recommended bet summary
NT – 1 unit on Chicago -2.5 at $1.80 (Sportingbet), 1.5 units on Pittsburgh -3 at $1.87 (Sportingbet), 1 unit on Buffalo +5.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet), 2 units on Jacksonville -3 at $1.91 (Sportingbet), 1.5 units on New York Jets -1 at $1.85 (Luxbet) and 1 unit on Green Bay -13 at $1.92 (Luxbet).
CB – 1.5 units on Tampa Bay +3.5 at $1.80 (Flemington Sportsbet) and 1 unit on Buffalo +5.5 at $1.91 (Sportsbet).
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
