The NFL Lines – Week 11
The Packers keep rolling. The Patriots and Saints assumed control of their respective divisions with wins over their closest rivals. The Texans, Bears and Niners all made statements with their wins (although the Matt Schaub injury may yet haunt Houston). And Philly shot themselves in the leg Plaxico Burress style, all but ending the playoff hopes of the ‘Dream Team’ 7 weeks before the regular season ends. Some reputations will go on the line in week 11, as Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham break down the matches.
CB – Another nice week there Nick – the recovery from the early season swoon is on in earnest. As for yours truly, my mate Parko summed it up perfectly when he said “Wow, you couldn’t have gotten those two bets any more wrong”. Touché. Let’s quickly move on to Week 11.
Summary of Week 10 results
NT – 6 selections, 8 units bet, return of 10.35 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 29%
CB – 2 selections, 2.5 units bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -100%
Total – 8 selections, 10.5 units bet, return of 10.35 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -1%
Summary of Overall results
NT – 54 selections, 78.5 units bet, return of 70.53 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -10%
CB – 32 selections, 40 units bet, return of 40.99 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 2%
Total – 86 selections, 118.5 units bet, return of 111.51 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -6%
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(Please note – all times are American ‘Eastern Time’ – add 16 hours to get to AEDST)
Thursday
NY Jets at Denver, 8.20 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Denver +6
NT – Which quarterback would you want your hard-earned on? Mark Sanchez, who will never be any better than fair, or the enigmatic Tim Tebow, who is now running the option spread in the pros? Tebow is a winner, the Jets look better. No play.
CB – A 4.5 point line in Denver equates to around a 10.5 point line if this were played in New York. With the Broncos at 4-5 on the season with 3 wins by 5 points or less, I’m not sure that laying the points is a great move here, even with all of their running back injury problems. A bizarre thought: if Denver were to upset the Jets here, both sides would be 5-5 on the year. No play for me.
Sunday
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Baltimore -7
NT – There is something strange going on in Baltimore. The Ravens interspersed horrible losses to Jacksonville and Seattle and an ordinary win against the Cardinals with a huge win over the Steelers. They are capable of beating any team but are playing so poorly they can get beaten by anyone. The Bengals are going honestly and even though I think the return to division football should see the Ravens return to the winners circle, I won’t be laying 7 points against Cincy.
CB – A more bizarre thought than Denver and the Jets possibly both being 5-5 soon: If the playoffs started right now, the Ravens and Bengals would be the AFC wild cards and would play Oakland and New England (AFC West and East champs respectively) in the first week. Anyway, I feel like the Bengals gave Pittsburgh everything they could last week and still lost by 7 at home, so I can’t take them getting 7 on the road. Nonetheless, the Ravens have been bad in the last month (Pittsburgh win excepted) and thus I can’t lay the points against a quite competent team either.
Jacksonville at Cleveland, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Cleveland +1
NT – The Jags are the bet of the week. Jacksonville have been in great form for bettors over the last month, going 3-0-1 against the line. They are winning on the back of a stout defence and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Browns, astonishingly, have made the number only once this year, downing the Colts. Straight home losses to NFC West teams also highlights their ineptitude. Bet 3 units on the Jags laying only a point.
CB – Both teams have solid defensive units (the Browns conceding 20.3 points per game, the Jags 18.4) and dysfunctional offensive units (the Browns scoring 14.6 points per game, the Jags 12.8). That means that a final score along the lines of 13-10 is definitely in play here. The Jags are the better team but with the likely low score and home field advantage for the Browns, I can’t have a bet here.
Carolina at Detroit, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Detroit -7
NT – The bubbles on both these teams seem to have burst. Both have covered in only one of their last four with the Panthers winning only one of six and the Lions beating only Denver the last month. With Matt Stafford playing so poorly, there doesn’t look to be a bet here.
CB – Yes, Detroit got whupped last week and have lost 3 of their last 4…. but those matches were against sides with a combined record of 19-8. Now they return home to take on a 2-7 Panthers line up who have lost all 3 of their road games so far in 2011, conceding 28, 34 and 31 points in those games. I smell a Matt Stafford renaissance coming this week – 1 unit on the Lions giving 7.
Tampa Bay at Green Bay, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Green Bay -14
NT – Green Bay have now covered 14 of their last 17 at Lambeau. I’m just going to keep on tailing that bad boy stat in for the rest of the year… this time for 1.5 units.
CB – I’m walking away from the 2011 Bucs. They’re only 4-5 despite getting an early schedule that gave them 6 homes games in the first 9 (albeit that one of their ‘home’ games was in London against the Bears, which they lost). Their 4 games outside of Tampa this year have resulted in a narrow win at Minnesota and 3 losses by a combined score of 99-37. And now they head to Lambeau – oh dear. Only the prospect of a meaningless late TD giving the Bucs the backdoor cover has me steering clear of the minus. No play.
Tennessee at Atlanta, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Atlanta -6
NT – The decision to go for it in overtime on their own 27 rather than punt could well have crushed the spirit of the Falcons. There is no way you could lay 6 on them this week. Nor could you get too invested in the Titans, who are a worse team but who have gone okay on the road in 2011. No play.
CB – A pair of 5-4 teams with the away side receiving 6 points? At face value, you’d take the points here. You’d still take the points when you consider the record of both teams against opponents with a record above .500 (each 1-3) and their respective home and away records (Atlanta are 2-2 at home, Tennessee are 2-2 on the road). So why is the line so big? I think in part it’s because the Titans are unfashionable – they simply don’t draw the public attention that their performances demand. Compare them to the Falcons whom, if anything, are a touch overexposed publicly. But the other part is that the Titans have been shellacked twice by good teams (Pittsburgh and Houston) and lost to the Bengals at home. I still have a lean to the plus, but not enough to play.
Buffalo at Miami, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Miami -1 to -2.5
NT – Miami entering this game as favourite would have seemed ludicrous a couple of weeks back with the Dolphins winless and the Bills leading the AFC East. But oh, how things have changed. The Dolphins have won two on the trot and covered their last three while the Bills have gone 2-4 over their last six. This game is too hard and the line seems about right.
CB – What happened to my Bills???? 2 weeks ago I’d have laughed, bet 2 units on the minus and then laughed again if you’d given me this line. But with the Dolphins recording back-to-back wins and the Bills recorded back-to-back heavy defeats, I’m now quite afraid of this game, especially as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s $59 million contract extension appears more generous by the minute. A season-ender if Buffalo lose it, that’s for sure. No play.
Dallas at Washington, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Washington +7.5 to +9
NT – Washington cannot score. Rex Grossman is back in at quarterback. The running game is a shambles. There is no Chris Cooley or Santana Moss. The Skins have lost five straight and failed to cover in any of those losses. But I cannot back the Cowboys laying so many points on the road against a division rival they have covered against only twice in the last 10 match-ups.
CB – The Redskins have all but shut up shop for the season which, when combined with the ‘Dallas could be 8-4 in 3 weeks from now’ talk makes this a massive trap game for the Cowboys. Throw in the fact that the road team is favoured by more than a touchdown and it’s easy to let this match go around without me.
Oakland at Minnesota, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Minnesota +1
NT – The Raiders are very close to a bet here but not quite. Michael Bush should gash the questionable Vikings run defence and if Carson Palmer is anywhere near the form he was in against the Chargers, Asher Allen is in for a long day at cornerback. But the Raiders offensive line is a worry and Jared Allen is in great form. No play.
CB – I don’t know what to make of this game in the slightest. The fact that Oakland lead the AFC West freaks me out. Minnesota are only 2-6 but appear to be playing in a substantially tougher division and only lost narrowly in 2 road games against the AFC West so far this season. Leave me out of this one.
Arizona at San Francisco, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: San Francisco -9.5
NT – A small 0.5 unit play on San Fran here. They have not missed covering all year and they have made the number in five straight against Arizona. I would be keener on the Niners if they could score and the Cards hadn’t covered three straight but you have to be on San Fran in this clash.
CB – The Niners record against teams worse than .500 on the season: home wins by 16, 45 and 10 points, road wins by 1 and 8 points. The Cardinals record against teams better than .500 on the season: home losses by 4 and 12 points, road loss by 3 points. With the Giants last week and a road trip to Baltimore looming next week, this also has some serious trap game potential for San Francisco. I have a slight lean to the minus, but the Cards have been just frisky enough over the past fortnight to make me hesitate and pass on this game.
Seattle at St Louis, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: St Louis -1
NT – Unbelievably, all four NFC West teams won last week. I am fairly sure the last time that happened, people were listening to The Wallflowers and having seedy thoughts about Blossom. Anyway, no play though I don’t really see how the line here isn’t 3.
CB – A 3-6 NFC West team on the road to a 2-7 NFC West team. No thank you. And Blossom’s attractiveness was overrated, even though she was a few years older than me and therefore by rights I should have fallen for her Winnie Cooper style. Never happened.
San Diego at Chicago, 4.15 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Chicago -3.5 to -4
NT – I would be all over the Bears giving up only 3 but the 3.5 seems about right. The Chargers, it looks like, are just an overrated team. They are just 2-7 ATS and have major problems on the offensive line and in the secondary. That is not a good match-up against a Bears team with a lethal pass rush and an ability to go deep. No dice but follow betting.
CB – Chicago’s 3 losses this year – at New Orleans, home to Green Bay, at Detroit. Translation: these guys are legitimate. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost 4 straight and are 1-3 on the road this season, with the one win coming against Denver midway through their QB changeover. Translation: these guys are vastly overrated. 2 units on Chicago -3.5 will do me nicely thanks.
Philadelphia at NY Giants, 8.20 pm
Bookmakers’ line: NY Giants -3 to -4.5
NT – My first reaction here was that the Giants have not been shown nearly enough respect. They are the best team in the NFC East with their only awful showing at home against Seattle. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 3-6 and have lost four of five at home with Michael Vick a questionable proposition to play this week. The Giants have only covered one of five though and Philly are the usual bet in this match-up. We will go New York for just 1 point.
CB – Another match where a ‘talk the talk’ meets a ‘walk the walk’ team. The Giants were respectable in defeat last week on the road against an 8-1 side, whilst the Eagles were disgraceful in losing at home to Arizona. Throw in some question marks on the health of Michael Vick and his ribs and I could picture this one getting ugly – 1.5 units on the Giants -4.5.
PS – For the record, on Tuesday night I had 2 units on the G-Men -3 with Luxbet at $1.88 but as that line has long since disappeared, for the column we’ll have to run the -4.5 line… dammit all. They’d better cover both lines.
Monday
Kansas City at New England, 8.30 pm
Bookmakers’ line: New England -14.5
NT – What an ugly game for Monday Night Football. The Pats looked to return to form against the Jets but 14.5 is still a big number to lay for a team with major defensive flaws. The Chiefs have just lost to Miami and Denver. Not even close to a wager.
CB – Just for fun, I looked up Tyler Palko’s career NFL stats – 4 seasons of gainful employment over a 5-year stretch, 0 games started, 9/13 for 82 yards, 0 touchdowns and interceptions, sacked twice. He’s squaring off against Tom Brady this week. By the way, this is the Patriots’ run home: Chiefs, at Eagles, Colts, at Redskins, at Broncos, Dolphins, Bills. Don’t rule out the prospect that they’re 12-3 heading into the last week and still in the running for a first week bye when Buffalo come to town in week 17. Anyway, I’d happily take the minus if I had more confidence in the Patriots’ defence, but I don’t. No bet.
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Recommended bet summary
NT – 1.5 units on Green Bay -14 at $1.91 (Luxbet), 3 units on Jacksonville -1 at $1.91 (Luxbet), 0.5 units on San Francisco -9.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet) and 1 unit on NY Giants -4.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet).
CB – 1 unit on Detroit -7 at $1.93 (Luxbet), 2 units on Chicago -3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet), 1.5 units on NY Giants -4.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
