The NFL Lines – Week 15
Well, week 14 was quite the disaster for Making The Nut’s NFL office. Nick has retained a small profit on the season, but Cliff is curled up in the foetal position in the corner, concerned that if the Mayans are on the ball, he has very little time left to extricate himself from quite the financial hole this season. With some trepidation, we turn to week 15.
Results from Week 14 tips
NT – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 1.91 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -52%
Total – 7 selections, 7 units bet, return of 1.91 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -73%
Overall Results
NT – 58 selections, 66.5 units bet, return of 67.34 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +1%
CB – 40 selections, 38.5 units bet, return of 27.45 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -29%
Total – 98 selections, 105 units bet, return of 94.79 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -10%
NT Recommended Bets
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS: 1 UNIT ON TAMPA BAY +3.5 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
The Saints are done. They were embarrassing against the Giants. The Bucs are coming off a bad loss but seem to have a lot more pride in what they do. The points are nice. This line should be around pick 'em.
JACKSONVILLE @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI -7.0 AT $1.91 (CENTREBET)
Miami were very unlucky not to cover last week – perhaps it made up for the great luck the week prior. The Dolphins should have few issues moving the ball against the Jags and their defence will wreak havoc. The Fins are the best favourite to play in week 15.
DETROIT @ ARIZONA: 1 UNIT ON ARIZONA +5.5 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)
Take a look at the record of teams following the biggest losing margins of the last 50 years. Tennessee, beaten by 59 in 2009 by New England, won their following game. The 1976 Falcons bounced back from a 59-point loss against the Rams to lose by just four to Green Bay. It is not an extensive list but teams bounce back from significant embarrassments in the NFL. Expect something from the Cards this week.
CB Recommended Bets
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -1.0 AT $1.91 (CENTREBET)
Why do I keep backing the Falcons, only to watch them break my heart (and my wallet) far more often than not? In this instance, it’s because they’re 6-0 at home, while the Giants are 3-3 on the road. Or because Atlanta’s major weakness (rushing attack) shouldn’t be exposed by a poor (conceding 4.6 YPC) Giants’ run defence. Or because I believe that a team who jumped out to an 11-1 record before getting pantsed by one of the worst sides in the NFL might show a bit of self-pride/ desire to keep pushing for a 1-seed and home field advantage in the playoffs (if last week taught us anything, it’s that they really need it). Or maybe it’s because I hate money. For at least one of those four reasons, I’m staying put on the Falcons bandwagon…. for now.
PITTSBURGH @ DALLAS: 1 UNIT ON DALLAS (MONEY LINE) AT $2.05 (LUXBET)
Both teams are 7-6, with a points differential of less than 20. Both have been involved in eight games already this season where the margin of victory was six points or less. Both have struggled to run the ball this season. Tony Romo is enigmatic at the best of times, while Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to have reached 100 per cent fitness as yet. I can’t see a clear reason to differentiate between the calibre of these teams, and therefore being able to back the home side as slight underdog appeals to me.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
