The NFL Lines – Week 16

Filed in NFL, NFL Tips by on December 19, 2012

Two weeks to go and the playoff picture, whilst taking shape, is a long way from complete. With a number of teams walking the tightrope at this stage, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham turn their attention to the upcoming week 16 action.

Results from Week 15 tips

NT – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.78 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +26%

CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 3.96 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +98%

Total – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.74 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +53%

Overall Results

NT – 61 selections, 69.5 units bet, return of 71.12 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +2%

CB – 42 selections, 40.5 units bet, return of 31.41 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -22%

Total – 103 selections, 110 units bet, return of 102.53 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -7%

 

NT Recommended Bets

BUFFALO @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI -4.0 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)

We have come this far. We aren't getting off Miami now. They looked classy against the Jags last week and can give the Bills a hiding at home, despite the fact Buffalo had 50 put on them last week. It is just a shame Miami threw away some of those early games or they would be in the box seat for a wildcards slot.

MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON: 1 UNIT ON MINNESOTA +9.5 AT $1.74 (SPORTINGBET)

I am not convinced the Texans are playing all that well at present. A week after getting a lesson in Foxboro they let the Colts stay in it longer than they should have. With Adrian Peterson chasing down all kinds of records, this could be closer than most expect. Take the points.

NY GIANTS @ BALTIMORE: 1 UNIT ON NY GIANTS -1.0 AT $1.80 (CENTREBET)

The Ravens stink at the moment and the Giants will fight back after being brutalised by Atlanta. I can't see how Joe Flacco stays upright in this one. The Giants should create too many turnovers to even give the Ravens a chance.

 

CB Recommended Bets

NY GIANTS @ BALTIMORE: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE +1.0 AT $2.10 (SPORTSBET)

This is the only line of the entire week that I disagree with the bookies on. I just don’t see where the Giants have a sufficient edge to be worthy of the road favourites tag. The Ravens are 9-5; the Giants 8-6. Both sides have recently lost narrowly to Washington on the road and Pittsburgh at home (admittedly, the Ravens lost to the Charlie Batch-led Steelers). The Ravens are 5-2 at home; the Giants 3-4 on the road. The Ravens may have lost three straight, but the Giants have only won two of their last six.  The Giants gain 0.3 more YPC rushing, but conceding 0.5 YPC more with their run defence. Flacco (7.1 YPA, 20 TDs, 10 Int, 86.1 passer rating) and Eli (7.4 YPA, 20 TDs, 15 Int, 83.8 passer rating) are having comparable years. Both pass defences have 32 sacks, while the Ravens are conceding a lower passer rating (80.5 to 88.1). It’s too close to call on the calibre of the respective sides, so give me the home underdog.

 

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo

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