The NFL Lines – Week 3

After two weeks of NFL action we have only six teams without a win and six more sitting undefeated at 2-0, suggesting that parity has been the order of the day thus far. Will the 2012 haves and have nots announce themselves in the third week of action? Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham assess the issue.

CB

As we covered in the preseason predictions, almost every year, the following three things happen:

(1) A team jumps up from six wins or less the previous season to grab a playoff spot;

(2) One team gets a first round playoff bye after failing to make the playoffs at all the year prior; and

(3) One team drops out of the playoffs altogether after getting a first round bye the year prior.

The lists keep changing each week, but right now I think the contenders under each category are as follows:

(1) Bucs, Rams, Redskins (who have two road games out of the way already)

(2) Eagles (two lucky wins may spark their season), Chargers, Bears. Note: I can’t bring myself to add the Cardinals to this list just yet – they’d have to defeat the Niners for the NFC West title first.

(3) It has to be one of the Pats, Ravens, Packers and Niners, but I currently have no idea whom – Niners look the least likely though.

By next week, these lists will have no doubt changed again. You’ve got to love the NFL.

 

Results from Week 2 tips

NT – 5 selections, 6.5 units bet, return of 10.17 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +56%

CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.85 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +28%

Total – 8 selections, 9.5 units bet, return of 14.02 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +48%

Overall Results

NT – 11 selections, 13.5 units bet, return of 14.04 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +4%

CB – 9 selections, 7.5 units bet, return of 7.97 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +6%

Total – 20 selections, 21 units bet, return of 22.01 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +5%

 

NT Recommended Bets

TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS: 1.5 UNITS ON TAMPA BAY +7.5 @ $1.85 (LUXBET)

Here we go – the same old Dallas. Nothing changes in Jerry Jones Land but the seasons and the odd coach – and Jason Garrett should consider himself squarely on the hot seat. The Cowboys were very disappointing against Seattle, unable to move the ball on the ground while allowing Marshawn Lynch to pound out 122 yards. Doug Martin has given the Bucs a run threat but it has been the all-round improvement of the team that has been the most noticeable – they could hang with the Giants in a shootout and shutdown the Panthers in a low-scorer. The line here is too big.

NY JETS @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI +3 @ $1.87 (CENTREBET)

After being humiliated in week one, the Dolphins bounced back with an annihilation of Oakland. The Jets stunned the Bills to open 2012 but reality set in when smoked by Pittsburgh last week. The Jets just could not move the ball – Mark Sanchez completing just 10/27 for 138 yards and tailbacks Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell combining for 56 yards on 20 runs. The Dolphins shut down Darren McFadden last week and should do the same to the limp Jets offense. If they can get to 17, they won't lose.

BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND: 1 UNIT ON CLEVELAND +3 @ $1.83 (CENTREBET)

This line has come up the wrong way. Cleveland have not done anything brilliant this year but they took the highly-touted Philadelphia Eagles to one-point in the opening week before going toe-to-toe with Cincinnati last week. At home against a Buffalo team that has proven nothing, the points look good. Buffalo's last win and cover as a road favourite? At Kansas City, December 2009. Take the points.

ATLANTA @ SAN DIEGO: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA +3 @ $2.00 (LUXBET)

I am high on both these teams this year – but while San Diego are a good team, I think Atlanta may be elite. During the first three-quarters of the win over Denver, the offense was off but still posted 27 points while the defence was outstanding. The Falcons should not be getting a full three points here.

PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND: 2.5 UNITS ON PITTSBURGH -4 @ $1.90 (BET 365)

This line is absurd. I marked it as the Steelers spotting 10 points. We can lay just four. The Steelers annihilated the NY Jets last week while the Oakland Raiders let the Miami Dolphins post 35 on them. The Steelers have a lot of improvement in them and are a Super Bowl calibre team – the Raiders are a bad team adapting to a new coach. The Raiders have covered just 1 of their last 6 games at home. Load up on the Steelers.

 

CB Recommended Bets

PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA: 1 UNIT ON ARIZONA +4.0 AT $1.95 (CENTREBET)

A four-point line in Arizona is roughly the equivalent of a 10-point line in Philly – would you really want to lay 10 with the Eagles currently so turnover-happy (nine in the first two weeks) and the Cards having conceded only two touchdowns in the first two weeks? I wouldn’t. Since the start of the 2010 season, the Cardinals are 15-19 overall…. but 11-6 at home, and 9-2 outright in their last 11 games at all venues. I think they can win this game outright, and thus I’m happy to grab the four points on offer.

HOUSTON @ DENVER: 1 UNIT ON DENVER +1.0 AT $2.02 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)

Spot the odd one out: Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert, Peyton Manning. Suffice to say, I think the Texans’ pass defence gets its first legitimate test of the season, especially as a professional like Manning is highly unlikely to put up consecutive three-pick games. Meanwhile, Houston’s much vaunted rushing attack (led by Arian Foster and Ben Tate) is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry (0.8 yards per carryless than their defence is conceding), while the Broncos have only conceded 2.6 yards per carry against the Steelers and Falcons in the opening two weeks. The Broncos have played two playoff-calibre sides, while the Texans have played none, and I think they’ll get found out as a road favourite here.

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo