The NFL Lines – Week 7
After being on the wrong end of 0-3 and 0-4 shutouts in weeks 4 and 6 respectively, Cliff Bingham is ditching the preamble for the week 7 tips which he and Nick Tedeschi have put together.
Results from Week 6 tips
NT – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.64 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +13%
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
Total – 9 selections, 9 units bet, return of 5.64 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -37%
Overall Results
NT – 31 selections, 39 units bet, return of 41.66 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +7%
CB – 22 selections, 20.5 units bet, return of 13.88 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -32%
Total – 53 selections, 59.5 units bet, return of 55.54 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -7%
NT Recommended Bets
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO: 1 UNIT ON SEATTLE +7.5 @ $1.83 (SPORTSBET)
Seattle have beaten both Green Bay and New England and tackle a side that has lost its two most important games and is getting 7.5 points. 3.5 would have been about right. 4.5 would have been generous. The 49ers have blowout potential and will test Russel Wilson but this top class defence should give Alex Smith plenty of headaches – they have of course shutdown Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Very nice bet.
DALLAS @ CAROLINA: 1 UNIT ON CAROLINA +2 @ $1.90 (BET 365)
I was hoping to get a flat 3 here but this is still a bet as I rate the Panthers 2.5-point favourites. The Panthers and the Cowboys, by all metrics, are almost identical teams and the Cowboys are in a letdown situation while the Panthers are off a bye. Cam Newton's running game can hurt the Cowboys, who struggled defensively against the Ravens.
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY: 1.5 UNITS ON TAMPA BAY +2.5 @ $1.97 (LUXBET)
Leave me out of the Saints. They opened 0-4 and should be 0-5, but for the officials who handed them a win against the Chargers. Disgraceful. The Bucs continue to sneak under the radar and finally had a deserved breakout win last week against the Chiefs. The Bucs have a really solid defence that can limit the Saints' damage and Josh Freeman has shown he can get the offense going.
DETROIT @ CHICAGO: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO -5.5 @ $1.91 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
This Chicago defence has taken back the mantle of being the top in the NFL, pushing past the benchmarks of recent years, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. That same defence will give Matt Stafford a headache and plenty of bruises. Stafford got the comeback win against the Eagles but stunk it up the first three quarters. With the Bears offense competent enough and off a bye, this shapes as a rout.
CB Recommended Bets
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE +7.0 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)
Both sides are 5-1. The Ravens are gaining 4.7 YPC when running the football to the Texans’ 3.8. Both sides are conceding an average of 3.8 YPC in their defending against the run (though admittedly, the Ravens have been gouged in each of the last two weeks). Both sides have an above-average pass defence with respect to QB rating conceded (Ravens 78.3, Texans 80.3). Joe Flacco and Matt Schaub are of comparable ability and statistical prowess. The loss of both Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season hurts Baltimore, but I still think that this line is a couple of points too high.
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA: 1 UNIT ON MINNESOTA -6.0 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)
A season that started so well for the Cardinals appears now to be in free-fall. Their rushing attack has gained only 3.4 YPC (second worst in the league), while they’ve allowed a league-worst 28 sacks. Couple this with the fact that they’re 4-14 on the road since the start of 2010 and it’s hard to mount a case for them. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 3-0 at home, have a solid passing attack and defence and an above-average rushing attack and defence. I think they can grab a wild card spot, but to do so they need to take care of business in games like this one.
DETROIT @ CHICAGO: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO -5.5 @ $1.91 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
I’m still unclear as to how Detroit got out of jail last week in Philadelphia, which may say more about the home side than the visitors. The Lions have given away 31 penalties in their last three games, including 16 last week. In contrast, take out the loss at Green Bay and the Bears are 4-0 with 139 points scored to only 48 conceded, whilst leading the league in interceptions (13) and QB rating conceded (60.0), ranking second in rushing TDs conceded (1) and fourth in the league for sacks (18). I had this line marked at -8, so am happy to lay the smaller line on offer.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
