The NFL Lines – Week 7
Week 6 provided a number of lessons in life. You’re never too old to practice your handshake technique. Stubbornness is a curse, especially when it relates to kicking the ball to Devin Hester. Leopards don’t change their spots, hence Rex Grossman should not be wagered on under any circumstances. And so the list goes. Can those life lessons be put to good use in week 7? Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham ponder this very issue.
CB – I quite liked the set of week 6 lines and thought there were a few decent plays, but this time around there are neon ‘TRAP WEEK!’ signs hanging everywhere. 2 double digit favourites, 2 road teams favoured by more than a touchdown, multiple teams fielding a new starting QB this week and a match being played in London to top it all off. There are red flags everywhere – let’s be careful this week folks.
Summary of Week 6 results
NT – 6 selections, 9 units bet, return of 5.89 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -35%
CB – 5 selections, 6.5 units bet, return of 9.87 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 52%
Total – 11 selections, 15.5 units bet, return of 15.76 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 2%
Summary of Overall results
NT – 33 selections, 48.5 units bet, return of 34.68 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -29%
CB – 20 selections, 24.5 units bet, return of 27.82 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 14%
Total – 53 selections, 73 units bet, return of 62.50 units, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -14%
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(Please note – all times are American ‘Eastern Time’ – add 15 hours to get to AEDST)
Sunday
Washington at Carolina, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carolina -2.5
NT – Both of these teams are 4-2 ATS this season but I feel punters have caught onto Carolina. The Skins have covered all four between these two over the last decade and with Washington’s stout defence, they can best the Panthers. Play them for 1 unit at the +2.5.
CB – The best analogy I can think of for betting on the Redskins last week and watching Rex Grossman throw four interceptions is this: imagine dating a cheerleader who used to be promiscuous but promised you she had reformed her ways, only to hear that she hooked up with half the football team during last week’s road trip. You’re just as angry at yourself for believing things could change as you are at her actions. In this case, I’m angry that I foolishly believed Grossman had stopped breaking his own team’s back at the worst possible moments. Suffice to say, there is some healing to be done before I can trust the Redskins again, even with John Beck now under centre. Yet I don’t feel comfortable laying points for a 1-5 side (an entertaining 1-5 side, but 1-5 nonetheless). No play.
Seattle at Cleveland, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Cleveland -3
NT – What a dreadfully unappealing game. Seattle have covered three straight and have more upside than the overrated Browns but on the road with so few points, I won’t be getting involved.
CB – As I’ve said previously, you do not want me trying to tip winners in games between bad sides. I’m awful at it. No bet.
Atlanta at Detroit, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Detroit -3 to -3.5
NT – Detroit suffered their first defeat last Sunday when the Niners just ran the ball down their throat. Atlanta are a team who could do something similar with Michael Turner. The line is right so no play but a lean on the plus.
CB – I continue to be low on the 2011 Falcons. Including playoffs, since the start of the 2008 season Atlanta are 21-7 (75 per cent win rate) at home but only 14-14 (50 per cent) away. Their only away win so far in 2011 was against Seattle, who missed a 61-yard FG attempt to win the match right at the death. More importantly, their offense has been man-handled by both Chicago and Green Bay already this year. I just don’t see how they can hang with Detroit in this match, and will have 2 units on the Lions -3.
Denver at Miami, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Miami -1.5
NT – I try to avoid taking the minus on 0-5 teams and these two have a total cover record of 1-8-1 this year. There is no way you could or should bet this game, particularly with both clubs starting new quarterback.
CB – See ‘Seattle at Cleveland’ comments above.
San Diego at NY Jets, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: NY Jets +1 to +2
NT – I can’t seem to get a grip on either of these two at the moment. The Chargers are 4-1 but have not played a complete game this year and have problems with their offense. The Jets have covered against two bad opponents at home but were ordinary in three road games in between. No bet.
CB – I remain sceptical about the Chargers, whose 4 wins so far this season have come against sides with a combined record of 4-17. Contrast this with the Jets, who have had a sneakily tough early draw, with road trips to New England, Baltimore and the better-than-first-thought Raiders already out of the way. Throw in the whole ‘West Coast team travelling east to play a 10am Pacific Time match’ factor and I think we have a false favourite here. I’m happy to have 1.5 units on the Jets +2.
Chicago at Tampa Bay* (being played in London), 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Tampa Bay +1 to +2.5
NT – The Bears looked so much better on Sunday night after adjusting their offensive line and moving to a quick passing game. They decimated the Vikings. The Bucs were also much improved against the Saints but won on the back of a good deal of luck when Sean Payton went down. A lean to Tampa Bay here, but no play.
CB – If we’ve learnt anything from the NFL’s previous regular season forays into England it’s this – the playing field is not well equipped to deal with 350-pound men bulldozing into each other and the surface often churns up badly as a consequence. Expect a scrappy game where big plays are hard to come by. With home field advantage being surrendered by Tampa, the line seems about right. No play.
Houston at Tennessee, 1.00 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Tennessee -3
NT – The Titans have been solid this year but the Texans have a lot more upside and while soundly beaten by the Ravens, were solid enough. In a critical division match-up, the points look the way to play. Matt Schaub will need to lift but he is capable of it. Play 1 unit.
CB – I really don’t know what to make of this matchup. At full strength Houston are the better side but they’re currently banged up, with Andre Johnson and Mario Williams their key absentees. With the AFC South lead on the line, it feels like a potentially tense game decided by less than a TD. I will stay out of it.
Pittsburgh at Arizona, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Arizona +3.5
NT – These two meet for the first time since their Super Bowl showdown three seasons back. The Steelers burnt me last week when they jumped to a 17-0 lead early and then shut up shop against the Jags but laying only 3.5 points to the hopeless Cardinals is too tempting to resist. Bet 1.5 units on the Steelers -3.5.
CB – With their schedule for weeks 8 to 10 reading ‘New England, Baltimore, at Cincinnati’, this has huge ‘look ahead/ letdown/ trap game’ potential for the Steelers. Moreover, 3 of the 4 Arizona losses so far this season have come by 4 points or less. I get the feeling the Steelers will do juuuussst enough to grab the win and save their best for the weeks ahead. No play.
Kansas City at Oakland, 4.05 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Oakland -4.5
NT – A new quarterback at the Raiders. The Chiefs not being real good. No thanks.
CB – With Jason Campbell out with a broken collarbone, either Kyle Boller or rookie Terrelle Pryor is set to take the start whilst new recruit Carson Palmer trying to learn the playbook, I can’t have the Raiders. In fact it’s only (a) the strong form of Darren McFadden and (b) that the 2 Chiefs’ wins have come against sides with a combined record of 1-11 that prevent me from taking the plus. PS – If the Chiefs win here they recover to 3-3, with San Diego, Miami and Denver (all at home) as their subsequent 3 games. The team who had the inside running to draft Andrew Luck after week 2 could be 5-4 (or maybe even 6-3) in less than a month from now. It’s true. Not to mention completely bizarre.
St Louis at Dallas, 4.15 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Dallas – 12 to -12.5
NT – The Rams haven't covered all year but I fancy them with the huge start against the Cowboys, whose last 11 have been decided by four points or less. We will have a 1 unit speculation on the Rams with 12.5.
CB – There’s a chance that the Cowboys are underrated in this game. After all, the combined record of teams Dallas have played so far this season is 21-8, and they haven’t yet played a team below the .500 mark. Yet these double digit lines are susceptible to a meaningless late score that screws up your cover, so I’ll pass on this match.
Green Bay at Minnesota, 4.15 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Minnesota +8.5 to +9
NT – Making your starting debut against the Green Bay defence is not going to be a good thing for Christian Ponder. In fact it could get downright messy. The Packers just keep covering too. We will play the Packers -8.5 for 2 units.
CB – Home field is usually deemed to be worth around 3 points against the spread, implying that this line would be around 11 at a neutral venue and around 14 at Lambeau. You know how I feel about double digit spreads. Throw in the fact that Green Bay’s 3 away wins in 2011 thus far have come by 7, 10 and 11 points and I’m nervous – even if the idea of only having to lay 8.5 to Christian Ponder in his first start has me itching to lay down some cash. No bet.
Indianapolis at New Orleans, 8.20 pm
Bookmakers’ line: New Orleans – 14
NT – The Saints should make a mess of the Colts but I'm not prepared to lay a big start after a distracting week where their coach and play caller broke his leg. A big win would not surprise but I don't want to lay the 14.
CB – A similar conundrum here to the Dallas game. New Orleans should belt the Colts at home, but can’t you imagine Curtis Painter flinging a rather speculative bomb into the end zone for a meaningless late 4th quarter TD to make the final score ‘New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 21’? I could. No play.
Monday
Baltimore at Jacksonville, 8.30 pm
Bookmakers’ line: Jacksonville + 7.5 to +9
NT – The Ravens defence has been beastly this year but the cover has almost always been determined by whether Joe Flacco is on or off. The Jags were plucky last week in Pittsburgh and they could hang around here. No play.
CB – Again, laying 7.5 points on the road is roughly equivalent to laying 14 points at home. The Jags showed a little fight last week and I don’t trust Joe Flacco to rack up a score, especially as Baltimore have bigger fish to fry this season. I’m sensing an uninspiring 17-10 win or something of that ilk, and will sit on the sidelines for yet another game.
Open date:Buffalo, Cincinnati, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New England.
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Recommended bet summary
NT – 1 unit on Washington +2.5 at $1.91 (Luxbet), 1 unit on Houston +3 at $2.05 (Luxbet), 1.5 units on Pittsburgh -3.5 at $1.91 (Luxbet), 1 unit on St Louis +12.5 at $1.90 (Luxbet) and 2 units on Green Bay -8.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet).
CB – 2 units on Detroit -3 at $1.81 (Sportsbet) and 1.5 units on NY Jets +2 at $1.92 (Luxbet).
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
